[straube]

Partner opens a weak NT (11-13)and you hold...

Q952
AQ5
AQ852
J

So 1N-2C, 2H-?

Your system allows you to show 4351 which by agreement does not suggest a slam. OTOH, you can blast to 3N and not divulge a likely club weakness.

Do you show shape or blast to 3N? How strongly do you feel about either decision? If the hand were a little different...stronger...higher club honor...how would that affect your decision?

[JLOGIC]

I feel very strongly that I should show my shape

[wank]

if you're not going to use this system kit on this hand, get rid of it and put in something you'd bother to use.

[jdeegan]

Pretty close decision. At MP 3NT (just barely). At IMP's 3♦ (assuming it is forcing). Club K or Q in place of ♣J improves case for blasting 3NT - more likely to have club stop and more likely to have plenty of HCP to make 3NT on power.

[jogs]

There are so many hand patterns. There are very few bids. How can you have a system which can show every pattern?

[JLOGIC]

jogs, on 2012-December-06, 22:42, said:

There are so many hand patterns. There are very few bids. How can you have a system which can show every pattern?

magic

[straube]

jogs, on 2012-December-06, 22:42, said:

There are so many hand patterns. There are very few bids. How can you have a system which can show every pattern?

We can't, but we do pretty well. I actually simplified the problem for point of discussion. We open our weak NT with 1D so the auction really went

1D-1S
1N-3N

but it should have gone

1D-1S 0+ diamonds, 4+ spades
1N-2D 11-13 NT, puppets to 2H
2H-2N puppet, shows 4 spades and 5+ diamonds
3C-3S relay, short club

So this could be 4351 or 4261 etc

For our 1N (14-16)we approximate this pattern thusly...

1N-2S 14-16, size ask
2N-3D minimum, club short
3H-3S four hearts, three hearts and four spades

Thus 4351 etc

[rhm]

straube, on 2012-December-06, 15:22, said:

Partner opens a weak NT (11-13)and you hold...

Q952
AQ5
AQ852
J

So 1N-2C, 2H-?

Your system allows you to show 4351 which by agreement does not suggest a slam. OTOH, you can blast to 3N and not divulge a likely club weakness.

Do you show shape or blast to 3N? How strongly do you feel about either decision? If the hand were a little different...stronger...higher club honor...how would that affect your decision?

I believe 3NT is best.
Assuming opener will not pass 3NT with four spades, opener has six or seven cards in the minors.
Guess which one will be longer most of the time.
On average I expect opener to have often four cards in clubs and seldom more than three cards in diamonds.
The jack of clubs tilts already the balance.
A simulation showed that 3NT makes about 68% of the time, which means you will make more than 70% of the time single dummy. (Which club to lead will sometimes be crucial)
Not bad when your combined HCP assets are 26-28.
Are you confident enough that you will often enough reach a superior contract by shaping out considering the damage information leak does?
Certainly not at matchpoints

Rainer Herrmann

[JLOGIC]

What is so damaging about the information leak? They know you have 4 spades if you bid 3N and that your partner has 4 hearts. Most of the time they will have a normal club lead given that we are 5-1 in the minors. Maybe sometimes they will have had a choice of which minor and would have gotten it wrong, but that is way less likely than us just belonging somewhere other than 3N imo.

[straube]

JLOGIC, on 2012-December-07, 14:55, said:

What is so damaging about the information leak? They know you have 4 spades if you bid 3N and that your partner has 4 hearts. Most of the time they will have a normal club lead given that we are 5-1 in the minors. Maybe sometimes they will have had a choice of which minor and would have gotten it wrong, but that is way less likely than us just belonging somewhere other than 3N imo.

Side question, Justin, but after you show shape, do you allow yourselves to play in 4m or are you forced to bid game somewhere? I don't know if there's an expert consensus on this.

[dake50]

What is so damaging about the information leak? They know you have 4 spades if you bid 3N and that your partner has 4 hearts. Most of the time they will have a normal club lead given that we are 5-1 in the minors. Maybe sometimes they will have had a choice of which minor and would have gotten it wrong, but that is way less likely than us just belonging somewhere other than 3N imo.

*** Agree.
Maybe even as unusual as partner plays 4H on a 4-3, or I'm in 4S on 4-3.
I'm gaming this even if its 5D.
Unless partner has unreliable judgment, let him decide "3NT! or not 3NT, maybe here?"
Even just maybe partner has 5xH??!!

[rhm]

JLOGIC, on 2012-December-07, 14:55, said:

What is so damaging about the information leak? They know you have 4 spades if you bid 3N and that your partner has 4 hearts. Most of the time they will have a normal club lead given that we are 5-1 in the minors. Maybe sometimes they will have had a choice of which minor and would have gotten it wrong, but that is way less likely than us just belonging somewhere other than 3N imo.

I am not so sure. Double dummy I certainly agree with you. This is a matter of judgement and of course my judgment may be wrong.
As usual I can see I am in a minority, but I believe when you have a bidding gadget, there is always a tendency to overuse it.
Shaping out pinpoints the club lead. Stayman essentially only eliminates the major suit lead bias, which is not the same. This may not matter always, but sometimes it will.
The fact that you hold 4 cards more in diamonds than clubs, will change the expected relative length difference in opening leaders minors on average only by 1.33 cards in favor of clubs.
What looks obvious or very likely from our hand may be anything but obvious from opening leader's perspective.
Not everybody believes that it is always right to lead from longest and strongest against two likely balanced hands with no major suit fit, particularly if that minor happens to be a broken 4 card suit, which is leaders expected length in clubs.
Experts have been known to lead a different card when they know dummy comes down with a shortage in the suit.
A high card often becomes more attractive, for example give opening leader AK9x and declarer QTxx, There are many other combinations.
Sometimes when you belong in 3NT you will play somewhere else if you shape out. The reason is the ♣J or the fact that partner will now try for slam, for which you are not particularly suitable.

Rainer Herrmann

[lalldonn]

If partner has QTxx of clubs then he has 13-15 of the missing 16 points in the other suits, and there are great odds of a slam in hearts or diamonds. And if the ten of clubs isn't in his hand, you may go down in 3NT instead of making that slam. I don't think this is close. They will gain very little from learning the rest of my shape.

[straube]

Ther's another problem, too. Even if the opponents get off to the wrong lead, there are chances they can recover with a club switch later in the hand. I'd be interested whether it pays to show shortness with a stiff higher honor. What do folks think when holding a stiff A, K, or Q and the same pattern and hcp strength?