[whereagles]

Hi all, here's a decision from this week-end's 16-boards RR teams game. Experts all around

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Pass or dbl? Comments welcome.

[MarkDean]

Pass for me - not that tempted with 652 of spades.

[Fluffy]

what are the 2 level openings for opps?

[phil_20686]

Not for me. xxx spades and two low hearts make it too likely that lho just has a really good hand.

[whereagles]

Opps play standard weak twos.

[gnasher]

Double. You can't just give up and let them make 80 or 110 because of the small risk that they can make game.

[Hanoi5]

gnasher, on 2011-November-20, 17:30, said:

Double. You can't just give up and let them make 80 or 110 because of the small risk that they can make game.

Is this an irony?

I pass. I believe this is the best contract we can play in.

[JLOGIC]

Selling out to 1H when we probably have about half the deck and a doubleton heart seems like a losing strategy.

[bigbenvic]

JLOGIC, on 2011-November-20, 17:48, said:

Selling out to 1H when we probably have about half the deck and a doubleton heart seems like a losing strategy.

9 count, 3 spades, flat hand, no good suit, no 10's or 9's, partner couldn't act over 1 heart. All feels like there is no game for us, lefty could have a Big 2 suiter near GF that might be awakened if I double and my minor cards sit well for him if it does.

I'm selling out with a pass.

[Fluffy]

the 3 spades doesn´t bother me at all. But letting the opponents reach their vul game, or escape from -200 in 1♥ to a making partscore somewhere else does. Table presence would help, I am a bit biased towards pass because it is posted as a problem and 10 IMP problems are more likelly than 5 IMP problems to be posted.

[JLOGIC]

People should really stop worrying that the opps have missed a game IMO, they'd do much better. How often irl do people really miss game on 1H p p ? Usually people open 2C or respond to the bidding when they have a game. Even when they have missed a game, it's not like they always find it. Now sure, if we had a stiff spade, it's a different ball game since they have missed spades, and maybe even a game, and you know that based on your hand (partner would bid with values and spades!). And RHO might well pass with a terrible hand and spades.

Here we have a 9 count with fine defense, and heart shortness. There is no reason to think they have missed anything, most likely partner has some kind of weak NT with some heart length, or maybe even on a good day a trap pass of hearts and it's our hand. Who knows. I want to get in there and compete when it can easily be our hand, or we can at least push our opponents higher to some level where we can beat them. Living in fear that they have game when all the available evidence suggests that they don't (RHO has announced a very weak hand, LHO has announced not a GF in his hand, we have 9 points and some defense) leading us to sacrifice 5 imps fairly often seems like a bad idea to me.

[JLOGIC]

Fluffy, on 2011-November-21, 03:39, said:

the 3 spades doesn´t bother me at all. But letting the opponents reach their vul game, or escape from -200 in 1♥ to a making partscore somewhere else does.

That is a very negative attitude. If partner has hearts good enough to beat 1H 2 tricks, maybe we will defend 1H X and get 500. Why do they have some awesome fit to run to? Even if they run to 1S and partner can't X, surely we can bid 1N? Or if partner has a stiff spade and they are cold for 2S or 3S despite partners hearts, maybe he has a minor suit fit and we can make a minor suit partial or game? Maybe we are cold for 3N. Who knows.

No, I don't think a big plus score is likely our way, but I don't think a big minus score is likely either. They are both just tail end possibilities. I def don't think them being cold for 3S but us not being able to make anything and ALSO being able to beat 1H 2 tricks is likely at all.

[Fluffy]

If you say so... this looks to me as a hand that I might

-instadouble then think
-think then pass

But I´ll put more weight on who the opponents are. For example having whereagles as an opponent who will open 14 counts in 2♣ this is a clear double, there are others against you need some table presence.

I used my table presence asking about 2♣/♦ openings to a french ladies (they played 2 way strong bids) a couple of years ago. I finally reopened 1♥, that won 5 IMPs, because the other table played 4♥ +450, but after my reopening they played 6♥ -1 instead of 1♥+4. My table presence sucks

[ggwhiz]

Looks like a clear double to me. If it goes wrong, I don't have to play it and can point to partners scoring average as declarer vs mine.

The odds of pard having 4-4 in the minors or a poor 5-card one with a decent point count are pretty good. If the opps own a game, they would have bid (towards) it already is a far better premise than worying that you will balance them into it. That's an insult to them.

[S2000magic]

In his book Doubles for Takeout, Penalties, and Profit, Bob Ewen advocated for a bid of 1NT on hands such as this, reserving the takeout double for a full opener. (I'm recalling this from long-ago memory as I think I lent out my copy and never got it back.) His reasoning is that the only way you're going anywhere with this hand is if partner has a good hand, and if partner has a good hand, the only reason that he passed is that he has hearts.

It's an interesting idea.

[MrAce]

If we agree that passing is total submissiveness with the fear of opponents can find a game and if we pass this type of hands each time with this fear, then we have to ask ourselves "How many times they make game when they open 1 and other one passes ?"

I don't think this number is much enough to lead us to chose a submissive action. It is in human nature, that when they sit on 1♥ and find a game after we balance, to feel miserable and remember as if this happens a lot. And the hands we balance seems to be push or 1-2 imps gain and gets lost easily in memories. However we ignore the fact that, had we choosed not to balance, those push boards could be a good size minus most of the time if not as bad as a game swing now and then.

[phil_20686]

Its not only that mr ace - but partner failed to bid over 1h himself, which basically rules him out from having five or more spades, given our weakness.

Thus our chances of winning the part score battle are much smaller than if we had more HCP or more spades. It seems like a lot of the time we will simply be exchanging 1h+2 for -2 in 3 spades in a 4-3 fit? What are we expecting partner to do with a 4-3-4-2 shape and a 12 count if the opponents bid 2H? He will jump to 3S. This could also get doubled.

It just seems like there are a lot of bad things that could happen. And not many good things. Sure, sometimes we can make 3m, but even if we can, opften partner will prefer to bid a spade partial and that wont make.

[gnasher]

phil_20686, on 2011-November-22, 04:59, said:

What are we expecting partner to do with a 4-3-4-2 shape and a 12 count if the opponents bid 2H?

I'm expecting him to bid 2♠. My minimum is about 3 points weaker than in the direct seat, so his actions should be correspondingly stronger.

[whereagles]

Ok ok thx all. Here are the hands:

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I decided to dbl, for more or less what justin said, and saw it go

(1♥) pass (pass) dbl
(3♦) ??

Can anyone guess what pard bid? Our agreements were

Dbl = responsive
3♠ = 4 spades and 10-12 hcp
3♥ = just about any 13+ hcp
4♣ = kind of undiscussed
4♠ = 5 cards and 10-12 hcp (for each spade more, subtract 2 hcp). Rare bid, as there was no 1S overcall.

[phil_20686]

3S just seems super routine.