[gwnn]

0.052 for 4 out of 31 (I think 0 is the most likely number of passouts).
0.917 for >4
0.0307 for <4

http://stattrek.com/...s/Binomial.aspx

0.0803, 0.865 and 0.0551 for 28.

Something's odd - why did hrothgar get other numbers?

[hrothgar]

gwnn, on 2011-March-16, 07:58, said:

0.052 for 4 out of 31 (I think 0 is the most likely number of passouts).
0.917 for >4
0.0307 for <4

http://stattrek.com/...s/Binomial.aspx

0.0803, 0.865 and 0.0551 for 28.

Something's odd - why did hrothgar get other numbers?

PDF versus CDF?

fwiw, I used the web site to estimate the probabily for

N = 28
P = .25
X = 3

and it spit out 0.038520818264821

[gwnn]

Oh. I was looking for 4, not 3 declared hands. Why? I don't know.

[hrothgar]

gwnn, on 2011-March-16, 08:49, said:

Oh. I was looking for 4, not 3 declared hands. Why? I don't know.

Zero's a bitch, don't cha know

[mtvesuvius]

FWIW I played 440 hands on BBO last month, and passed two of them out. One with a robot, one with a regular partner. This is not counting the Passouts in Robot Reward tournaments.

[hrothgar]

mtvesuvius, on 2011-March-16, 10:24, said:

FWIW I played 440 hands on BBO last month, and passed two of them out. One with a robot, one with a regular partner. This is not counting the Passouts in Robot Reward tournaments.

I am really surpised at the low frequency of passouts that people are reporting
I can (easily) believe that my estimate of 1:10 hands was overly optimistic, but figures like these seem ridiculously small.

Any chance that someone has a relatively broad sample to verify these estiamtes?

Say, board results for all pairs participating in the final of large events over the past five years?

[Echognome]

Sounds like a perfect question for BridgeBrowser. Where are Ben or Stephen when you need them?

For higher quality bridge, it sounds like some people have mined the VuGraph archives. Might be useful to look at the major championships.

[FrancesHinden]

When playing non-serious bridge (e.g. local club or county league matches) we basically never pass a board out. Only once so far have the opponents then bid and made 3NT.
In serious bridge we look at our hand in fourth seat, but even then I'd most normal sessions (24-30 boards) do not include a passout, so 1 in 50 actually seems high if anything.

[Cyberyeti]

Zelandakh, on 2011-March-15, 14:24, said:

93.87% of online statistics are made up on the spur of the moment.

85.8% of all dwarves are not happy

[matmat]

I really don't know where you guys get such low values; I pass out at least every other time I play bridge.

[Vampyr]

matmat, do you really have to take up so much room with each post?

[matmat]

Vampyr, on 2011-March-17, 01:46, said:

matmat, do you really have to take up so much room with each post?

I like to give myself a lot of room so that I can edit my posts later; plus, white-space is pretty.

[gwnn]

I think 1% is much better an estimate, or to be scientific, somewhere between 0.316% and 3.16%.

[han]

How come Richard is very quick to see that declaring 3 hands in 31 is not that unusual, but he is so bad at estimating how many hands get passed out? I find this a more interesting question than why pirate claims to have declared 0 hands while having declared 3. But then, Richard is an interesting poster, hence my signature.

[inquiry]

hrothgar, on 2011-March-16, 10:43, said:

I am really surpised at the low frequency of passouts that people are reporting
I can (easily) believe that my estimate of 1:10 hands was overly optimistic, but figures like these seem ridiculously small.

Any chance that someone has a relatively broad sample to verify these estiamtes?

Say, board results for all pairs participating in the final of large events over the past five years?

I used bbo main hand datebase and looked at 1000000 hands, there were 11,596 passed out hands.

[manudude03]

I guess the passout figures are higher on BBO (even ignoring Best Hand) seeing how many players there are who pass out clearcut openers.

[gwnn]

inquiry, on 2011-March-17, 08:19, said:

I used bbo main hand datebase and looked at 1000000 hands, there were 11,596 passed out hands.

well within my wonderful estimates above.

[Free]

manudude03, on 2011-March-17, 08:21, said:

I guess the passout figures are higher on BBO (even ignoring Best Hand) seeing how many players there are who pass out clearcut openers.

Perhaps they're playing strong pass like foobar...

[hrothgar]

han, on 2011-March-17, 08:13, said:

How come Richard is very quick to see that declaring 3 hands in 31 is not that unusual, but he is so bad at estimating how many hands get passed out? I find this a more interesting question than why pirate claims to have declared 0 hands while having declared 3.

I spend much more time working with binomial distributions than I do playing bridge...

(Especially right now when I seem to be eating and breathing Generalized Linear Models)

[zasanya]

manudude03, on 2011-March-17, 08:21, said:

I guess the passout figures are higher on BBO (even ignoring Best Hand) seeing how many players there are who pass out clearcut openers.

I guess the number of people who open on clearcut passers is equal to the people who pass clearcut openers , if not more.
Especially 3rd hand Many of us open on clearcut passers.