Is this a record not playing a hand as declarer
#21
Posted 2011-March-16, 07:58
0.917 for >4
0.0307 for <4
http://stattrek.com/...s/Binomial.aspx
0.0803, 0.865 and 0.0551 for 28.
Something's odd - why did hrothgar get other numbers?
George Carlin
#22
Posted 2011-March-16, 08:26
gwnn, on 2011-March-16, 07:58, said:
0.917 for >4
0.0307 for <4
http://stattrek.com/...s/Binomial.aspx
0.0803, 0.865 and 0.0551 for 28.
Something's odd - why did hrothgar get other numbers?
PDF versus CDF?
fwiw, I used the web site to estimate the probabily for
N = 28
P = .25
X = 3
and it spit out 0.038520818264821
#23
Posted 2011-March-16, 08:49
George Carlin
#24
Posted 2011-March-16, 09:46
gwnn, on 2011-March-16, 08:49, said:
Zero's a bitch, don't cha know
#25
Posted 2011-March-16, 10:24
#26
Posted 2011-March-16, 10:43
mtvesuvius, on 2011-March-16, 10:24, said:
I am really surpised at the low frequency of passouts that people are reporting
I can (easily) believe that my estimate of 1:10 hands was overly optimistic, but figures like these seem ridiculously small.
Any chance that someone has a relatively broad sample to verify these estiamtes?
Say, board results for all pairs participating in the final of large events over the past five years?
#27
Posted 2011-March-16, 11:02
For higher quality bridge, it sounds like some people have mined the VuGraph archives. Might be useful to look at the major championships.
#28
Posted 2011-March-16, 13:38
In serious bridge we look at our hand in fourth seat, but even then I'd most normal sessions (24-30 boards) do not include a passout, so 1 in 50 actually seems high if anything.
#30
Posted 2011-March-17, 00:47
#31
Posted 2011-March-17, 01:46
#33
Posted 2011-March-17, 06:09
George Carlin
#34
Posted 2011-March-17, 08:13
- hrothgar
#35
Posted 2011-March-17, 08:19
hrothgar, on 2011-March-16, 10:43, said:
I can (easily) believe that my estimate of 1:10 hands was overly optimistic, but figures like these seem ridiculously small.
Any chance that someone has a relatively broad sample to verify these estiamtes?
Say, board results for all pairs participating in the final of large events over the past five years?
I used bbo main hand datebase and looked at 1000000 hands, there were 11,596 passed out hands.
#36
Posted 2011-March-17, 08:21
#37
Posted 2011-March-17, 08:38
inquiry, on 2011-March-17, 08:19, said:
well within my wonderful estimates above.
George Carlin
#38
Posted 2011-March-21, 08:30
manudude03, on 2011-March-17, 08:21, said:
Perhaps they're playing strong pass like foobar...
#39
Posted 2011-March-21, 08:42
han, on 2011-March-17, 08:13, said:
I spend much more time working with binomial distributions than I do playing bridge...
(Especially right now when I seem to be eating and breathing Generalized Linear Models)
#40
Posted 2011-March-21, 23:36
manudude03, on 2011-March-17, 08:21, said:
I guess the number of people who open on clearcut passers is equal to the people who pass clearcut openers , if not more.
Especially 3rd hand Many of us open on clearcut passers.
Do unto others as you would have others do unto you.
"Mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself, but talent instantly recognizes genius".