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The lead was the ♦J which went to my Queen. I thought there were two lines, duck a spade or use the spade entries for finesses in hearts. Somehow you know the defense will set up another trick for you in diamonds, so what is better?
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Another simple percentage question Finesse or 3-3+doubleton honors
#1
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Posted 2010-November-23, 05:36
The lead was the ♦J which went to my Queen. I thought there were two lines, duck a spade or use the spade entries for finesses in hearts. Somehow you know the defense will set up another trick for you in diamonds, so what is better?
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#2
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Posted 2010-November-23, 06:58
Hanoi5, on 2010-November-23, 05:36, said:
The lead was the ♦J which went to my Queen. I thought there were two lines, duck a spade or use the spade entries for finesses in hearts. Somehow you know the defense will set up another trick for you in diamonds, so what is better?
#3
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Posted 2010-November-23, 07:11
I would rather run the ♥10. Opponents might duck ♥9. Now you run the risk of losing 2♦, 2♠ and ♥A even with hearts right all the time.
#4
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Posted 2010-November-23, 08:33
If you think the defense is going to set up another ♦ for you why don't you just play ♥ from your hand?
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
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the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
#5
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Posted 2010-November-23, 09:21
pooltuna, on 2010-November-23, 08:33, said:
If you think the defense is going to set up another ♦ for you why don't you just play ♥ from your hand?
My thoughts exactly...
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#6
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Posted 2010-November-23, 10:45
pooltuna, on 2010-November-23, 08:33, said:
If you think the defense is going to set up another ♦ for you why don't you just play ♥ from your hand?
Free, on 2010-November-23, 09:21, said:
My thoughts exactly...
Are you guys not the least bit worried that East has five or six diamonds given the diamond jack opening lead? If so, they will win 3♦ and 2♥ before you can get your nine tricks.
A second concern is the bidding. How do you end up in 3NT with no spade fit, and an absolute minimum 1NT overcall on this auction?
What are E-W hands? Surely West is ♦Jx, and East has ♦AKxxx. You have 23 hcp between your two hands, and West had at least one. That is 24, that leaves 16 hcp unaccounted for. West can not have a king, the question is would East have an opening hand without the ♥Ace? Without the ACE, his hand would be something like this (side suit distributions, still unknown).
I would play East for the heart ACE. This does not, however simplify the hand.
I would play East for the heart ACE. This does not, however simplify the hand.
--Ben--
#7
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Posted 2010-November-23, 13:48
Bidding a tough 3NT, wtp?
Play: Crossing to a spade and playing the ♥10 seems like another wtp?, but I might be missing something?
Play: Crossing to a spade and playing the ♥10 seems like another wtp?, but I might be missing something?
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Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.
Best Regards Ole Berg
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We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:
- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.
Gnasher
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.
Best Regards Ole Berg
_____________________________________
We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:
- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.
Gnasher
#8
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Posted 2010-November-23, 14:42
When the problem poser stipulates that the defense will be slapdash ("Somehow you know ... another trick in diamonds"), I think we can take it that "simple percentage" is ironic.
The best legitimate line seems to me to be to duck a spade. Spades could be 3-3 and finding another red trick probably isn't hard. Assuming diamonds 2-5 and assuming RHO has about enough high cards to open, I figure the spade break or ♠QJ alone is 42% and requiring the ♥A onside leaves at least 35% overall chance of success.
Playing on hearts works if RHO ♥AQ(x) onside -- around 25%. Just two honors onside is about 42%, but unless they are short there will be trouble. The problem is how the play goes when RHO has ♥AQxx,♦AKxxx if you win the ♦, cross in ♠ and lead the ♥10. RHO may take the ♥A and play a spade. Now a ♥ finesse and then what? If RHO is 3451, you are down. If RHO is 2452 you can strip RHO's black cards and endplay but this requires guessing that RHO isn't 3352.
The best legitimate line seems to me to be to duck a spade. Spades could be 3-3 and finding another red trick probably isn't hard. Assuming diamonds 2-5 and assuming RHO has about enough high cards to open, I figure the spade break or ♠QJ alone is 42% and requiring the ♥A onside leaves at least 35% overall chance of success.
Playing on hearts works if RHO ♥AQ(x) onside -- around 25%. Just two honors onside is about 42%, but unless they are short there will be trouble. The problem is how the play goes when RHO has ♥AQxx,♦AKxxx if you win the ♦, cross in ♠ and lead the ♥10. RHO may take the ♥A and play a spade. Now a ♥ finesse and then what? If RHO is 3451, you are down. If RHO is 2452 you can strip RHO's black cards and endplay but this requires guessing that RHO isn't 3352.
#9
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Posted 2010-November-23, 17:49
jukmoi, on 2010-November-23, 07:11, said:
would rather run the ♥10. Opponents might duck ♥9. Now you run the risk of losing 2♦, 2♠ and ♥A even with hearts right all the time.
But ducking a ♠ is reasonable too.
#10
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Posted 2010-November-23, 18:20
If you're going to play for spades 3-3, you should cash two clubs before ducking the spade. Then if they play a spade back you can throw a club on the last spade, reaching this position:
When you can cash the last club from dummy you abandon the the same suit as RHO, then lead the other suit. It doesn't help RHO to have cashed a diamond earlier before playing the spade back.
(All this assumes that RHO has ♥A.)
When you can cash the last club from dummy you abandon the the same suit as RHO, then lead the other suit. It doesn't help RHO to have cashed a diamond earlier before playing the spade back.
(All this assumes that RHO has ♥A.)
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#11
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Posted 2010-November-24, 18:49
Hanoi5, on 2010-November-23, 05:36, said:
The lead was the ♦J which went to my Queen. I thought there were two lines, duck a spade or use the spade entries for finesses in hearts. Somehow you know the defense will set up another trick for you in diamonds, so what is better?
but otherwise this may help you to decide which line to take 
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