Posted 2010-February-16, 03:18
If you have a penalty double available, I think it's close.
Partner probably has only two hearts, so probably has at least three spades. If so, 4♠ will probably be the normal contract and will probably be a good contract. However, it may be beaten by bad breaks.
Double is likely to produce about 300. That would be a loss of 3 or a gain of 8. Is 4♠ going down more than 3/11 of the time?
I think I'd be swung by the risk that partner is 22(45) or 22(63). This type of hand is more often treated as balanced than it used to be. I'd double.
FWIW, when I first saw the problem I thought 4♠ was obvious. (If double would be takeout, 4♠ is still obvious.)
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
1NT (15-17) (4♥) ?