[bid_em_up]

You hold:

Not vul vs. vul.

---

Dealer, your RHO opens 3♦. The person holding your hand passes.

Your LHO tanks, and finally bids 6♣-p-p-?

How about it? Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?


(LHO is known to be a decent player, not prone to flights of fancy....he is expecting to have a reasonable shot at making 6♣ for the bid).

Explain your reasons on why you should or should not double, please.

[pclayton]

I pass.

If I had to guess, we are getting this -1 since I am staring at the ♦A, and its inconceivable declarer has a tank 6♣ call that makes 12 tricks.

[kenrexford]

I suspect that the 6♣ call was based upon what LHO deems to be solid clubs, hearts solidly under control, a spade void, and three diamonds. So, I pass.

To clarify:

First, I'm not on lead. So, I cannot give partner a diamond ruff.

However, I expect that I might set 6♣ anyway, because I can hold up in diamonds. If partner has a heart trick lurking, it will not be avoided. My J10x of clubs means that there is no good chance for a side entry to dummy.

If I am right, 6♦ might be set also. LHO may well pull 6♣, guessing that I hold J10xx in clubs. When I lead spades, I'll gain length advantage over Declarer.

What I fear, however, is that partner lacks a heart winner at 6♣, or that Declarer at 6♦ might run three hearts, or two hearts and three clubs, and pitch the only spade loser. I feel these to be too high of risks.

The deal I expect as possible:

---

At 6♦, I must lead a spade to have a chance. Declarer ruffs and leads one diamond. I must duck, and the pattern is known. So, Declarer runs three clubs, pitching the other spade loser. He can now pull my trump out.

[SoTired]

i would not double because
1) opps might XX and make it
2) Double is lead-directing and a diam lead may be bad
3) If opps go down, it will only be -1 so i am risking -170 or -460, versus a gain of +100. Poor pot odds.

[ohioply]

I'm passing. The reward for them going -1 or even -2 isn't worth giving them a doubled slam. I can just smell a 7-4 hand or a 7-5 hand with declarer with a void in spades or diamonds or both. If I can't count on both of my aces cashing there's no way I'm doubling.

[jtfanclub]

bid_em_up, on Jan 24 2007, 02:16 PM, said:

Your LHO tanks, and finally bids 6♣-p-p-?

How about it? Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?

I don't generally X just because I don't think they're going to make.

Most opponents are going slower than this, I think. There's a lot of possible contracts going on here- us making some major suit game or slam, them bidding and stopping in five, and them bidding 6 (in which case, if they're bidding slowly, I expect them to make- I don't have unusual shape).

In virtually all of those cases, an extra 50 or 100 makes no difference. It'll be one IMP at most, and we'll win or lose based on MPs the same doubled or not. I see no reason from my hand to believe that they'll be set 2 or more tricks.

So I see no gain in doubling, not unless I'm playing Total Points or something. And I do see losses- particularly if the slow bidders arrive at the same spot but it's obvious that it'll make, or other people holding our cards bid 4 or 5 of a major and get set by 4 tricks.

The only time I'd X in a situation like this is if...
1) I'm reasonably sure we're going to set it by at least 1 trick, AND
2) I'm reasonably sure we can make game.

[Double !]

I Pass

Head, I win
Tails, I tie

do i need to double to get a good results for the board?

DHL

[bid_em_up]

SoTired, on Jan 24 2007, 04:38 PM, said:

i would not double because:

1) opps might XX and make it
2) Double is lead-directing and a diam lead may be bad
3) If opps go down, it will only be -1 so i am risking -170 or -460, versus a gain of +100. Poor pot odds.

Thanks to all who answered.

I posted this in the Beginner/Intermediate area, because even though the contract may be going down, it cannot pay to double, and I thought it was a good example hand to show why not.

Herein lies the crux of the problem.

The world class opp (or at least he claimed to be, who am I to doubt him?) doubled with this hand. He happened to be right so he gained an extra 50.

But he loses much more when he is wrong and since double does tend to be lead directing, he may give the contract away on a diamond lead. (They didnt lead a diamond, however). And as is suggested, it may well get xx'd and make. Oops.

I was totally amazed when he doubled.

[pbleighton]

"I was totally amazed when he doubled."

I wouldn't have doubled, but the form of scoring (you didn't specify) makes a huge difference.

Double at IMPs is crazy.

Double at matchpoints isn't a good idea IMO, but isn't crazy.

Peter

[mikeh]

While I also would not have doubled, there is an argument that the double is the better call. We can infer that a non-idiotic LHO has great trump, and the majors well controlled. It is entirely possible that we cannot beat this contract without a ♦ ruff... and partner will more often hold a stiff than a void.

It is highly unlikely that anyone will redouble: give you J10xx of ♣s and the same hand and who looks foolish now, should you double and they redouble.

So you are risking only 170 by doubling and if you think that this affords a significant chance of saving 920, well, then the double makes great sense.

At total points or rubber, the double can look appealing. It is slightly less so at imps, because the imp scale compresses the big swings compared to the small ones: the double costs 5 imps when wrong and gains about 14 (sorry, no imp scale here). At mps, the question is whether many opps wil get to 6♣ and my guess is 'no', in which case the double is sensible: you are trying to turn a near-zero into a top, risking making the near zero a clear zero.

All of this presupposes that partner has precisely 1♦, and will lead it, or that 6♣ simply fails on power. As to the lead, he should lead a ♦: you should not double if you fear a ♦ lead.

[bid_em_up]

pbleighton, on Jan 25 2007, 11:44 AM, said:

"I was totally amazed when he doubled."

I wouldn't have doubled, but the form of scoring (you didn't specify) makes a huge difference.

Double at IMPs is crazy.

Double at matchpoints isn't a good idea IMO, but isn't crazy.

Peter

It was imps. Sorry for the omission.

[mr1303]

Can we see the complete hands?

[Gerben42]

Without seeing my hand if I'm the 6♣ guy I redouble. Apparently trumps are breaking and partner does not have the wasted Ace in my void.