[Winstonm]

Jlall, on Aug 22 2005, 09:04 AM, said:

I don't agree with your numbers.

Please remember stiff queen in either suit is not good enough, but your numbers are still off.

www.rpbridge.net will give you exact numbers to the hundredth

I checked the numbers also with known 1-1 hearts in opps hands the only available information. Singleton Q in either suit was ruled out.

Drop the club Qx=27%
Find Qx, Qxx Diamonds onside: 26%.

Drop the Qx of diamonds: 16%
Find Qx or Qxx clubs onside: 34%

Being no mathematician, I believe though that to calculate the odds one must use this method:

Drop the Diamond or finesse in clubs: 16%+(34%x84)=44.56%
Drop the Club or finesse in diamonds: 27%+(26%x73)=45.98%

You math whizzes may correct me - this is as good as a "Dumb Okie" can do.

Winston

[david_c]

I also get 44.6% (try to drop the ♦Q then finesse in clubs) and 46.0% (try to drop the ♣Q then finesse in diamonds), doing the calculation by treating the minor-suit distributions as independent.

If you take into account the fact that the minors aren't independent then you will find that the difference between the two lines is only about 0.8%, but it still favours playing to drop the ♣Q.

But all this accuracy is a bit misleading because of the lead inferences, though you would still expect that playing for the ♣Q to drop is better. For example, if you do the calculation under the assumption that the opening leader has precisely 5 hearts, then starting with the top clubs is better by about 1.8%.