[thepossum]

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Hi


If you add up the trumps on the second round, lead of the Jack to West, it does not make any difference whether I play the Queen or the 9
But if I duck the Queen like all these people the dummy bot plays the King and gives up a trick

Is this bad defence on my part or just bad luck

Have posted one of all the players who seemed to know the bot would give up a trick on round 2 of trumps

Can anyone explain why it matters if I play the Queen or 9

I know I know. Make it guess. Is this restricted choice or something like that

Am thinking of inadequate resoning in my own declarer play. Something I am mmissing

Sometimes after each hand I like to look up DD to see how I am going - imagine the disappointment

I will get it right next time

Or perhaps its vacant spaces??


I am going to put it through a few DD solvers and see
EDIT apparently there is a small advantage in playing the King except when it gives up a trick
I am kind of in the tiny differences doesn't matter what you do camp
Drop/finesse. Do I feel lucky

[paulg]

Firstly, you only cover in situations like this when there is a chance of promoting a card for yourself or dummy. In this case, holding Q92, there is such a chance if partner holds 103 rather than 53 although the odds are against it (originally declarer has six hearts, partner has two).

Secondly the robot does not know how to play suit combinations, so it does not necessarily take the best line. It takes the best line for the hands it generates in its simulations. For example, its line on this hand is not best even if you peeked at the diamond distribution (it doesn't).

There are two equal lines for six hearts tricks: (1) lead the ♥8 to the ♥10 or (2) cash a top heart and then run the ♥J, taking the finesse if it is not covered.

However, more than suit combinations, there is also the rest of the hand. The robot declarer is worried that you have a singleton ♦K, so is not finessing as he does not want to lose two heart tricks.

So it is probably better defence to return your diamond to create the real threat of a ruff; no declarer is taking a finesse now.

[thepossum]

I know now it was not the best line lol
Sometimes you can overthink and think these two cards are equivalently useless
Or underthink
I forgot the declarer still had a choice
It was clearly a defensive miscalculation but sad all the same
Maybe I thought 5 trumps out means finesse - I am literally in the probabilities are so small that it doesn't matter usually
And while on this hand trying to be different from the field was not in my mind it is not a bad strategy sometimes to mix it up

Something of a curioisty that the small marginal/insignificant to most of us difference between drop and finesse was flipped in this case
Next time will get it right lol
Equivalently useless cards - play the lowest and hope
Automatic pilot really

EDIT I do keep checkingand seemingly the small advantage on playing the king is real, except when it loses a trick
Cost me a lot lol