[Cyberyeti]

MP pairs

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Partner will have 5 spades unless 15-bad 19 4333 in our form of Acol.

2/1 is happy to bid game opposite 15+.

Edit: I should add that all 5332 12-14s are opened 1N

[mw64ahw]

You could raise to 2♠, but I'd go for 1N given the flat hand and 9hcp

[Cyberyeti]

Basically, the problem with 1N is AQxxx, xxx, Qxx, AK where 2♠ makes at least one extra trick unless the hearts are blocked, the problem with 2♠ is xxxx, KQx, Qxx, AKJ where 2♠ is very unlikely to be better than 1N.

The question is how often does 3N make opposite 15-16 balanced ? which is where you will be opposite 2♣.

[P_Marlowe]

It is a guess.

I would go with 1NT, if p holds 15-16 bal., 3NT may make, but chances are likely below 50%,
you can simulate it, if he is stronger we will end up in 3NT.

The problem with 2C is also, that it will point them toward a heart attack a little more,
than a 1NT response, but I cant make a fake 2H, I may end up in 4H playing a 3-3 fit.

Maybe 2D helps to highlight the issue, if opener bids NT, he will have values in clubs / hearts,
but what do you do after 2S, pass or raise, and if you raise overstates this your values?

I am a simple soul, I bid 1 NT and be done with the hand, knowing it to be a guess.

[Tramticket]

Nine-count responding hands are a problem in Acol. I like the fact that I have three-card support and two honours in partner's suit, but the hand is ace-less and and an ugly 4333 shape, so I see no reason to deviate from the "book bid" of 1NT. Even if we have an eight-card spade fit, this hand could easily belong in no trumps, so I prefer a 1NT response to 2S. The hand is a bit thin for a 2C response and I have no desire to emphasise the club suit.

[Cyberyeti]

 Tramticket, on 2024-April-29, 09:02, said:

Nine-count responding hands are a problem in Acol. I like the fact that I have three-card support and two honours in partner's suit, but the hand is ace-less and and an ugly 4333 shape, so I see no reason to deviate from the "book bid" of 1NT. Even if we have an eight-card spade fit, this hand could easily belong in no trumps, so I prefer a 1NT response to 2S. The hand is a bit thin for a 2C response and I have no desire to emphasise the club suit.

I think if you open 4M4m(32) hands with the major, it's a fairly clear 1N, it's slightly less clear when partner has 5 spades the vast majority of the time as in our case as we open the minor with those

[DavidKok]

Bidding from the previous century. We are concealing support because of texture, and struggle to deal with partner possibly having a balanced hand.

I don't know enough about the bidding style to decide between 2♠ or 1NT. I'm very worried about 1♠-1NT; 2m-?, where we are quite strong for false preference to 2♠ (especially if opener rebids 2♣), but too weak for 2NT or 3♠. I also don't like the idea of something like 1♠-(P)-1NT-(2♦); P-(3♦)-?, though this will be less common and passing that is probably fine. In general I consider this a weakness of the system, and I don't think there's much to it other than guessing well. Old-timers were happy to conceal support, so I bet 1NT is the book bid. I'm not worried over opener possibly having 4♠333 15+ - it doesn't pay to cater to that hand type, and opener will likely bid on anyway with that hand so we can steer to 3NT (by the strong hand, even).

Personally I don't see any merit in 2♣, but maybe this is my lack of system knowledge showing.

[helene_t]

2d helps partner reevaluate when I raise 2s to 3s.

[mycroft]

If partner has the 15 4(333), you're hooped. You're in a 24-point game (likely) that doesn't have any long suits to run or short suits to ruff. Even if partner has a good 16 or 17, you're in better shape. Even if it's 15 5(332), you're in decent shape. (A short note in response to "if you bid 2♣" - it's not "15 balanced", it's "15 4333." Which we all know plays significantly worse than even 15 4432.

But how often does that happen, as opposed to the 5(422)s and the 5(431)s with 12? Even if you take the 12-14 and 20+ 5♠332s out of the equation, you have an 8-card fit much more often than the losing case. And I assume you have a great system for flying the "bad-hand" flag in this auction (and in the 5♥332s after either 1♠ or 1NT, for that matter). I mean, if not, then it's a crapshoot, and I'll treat the pancake 15-16 as a losing case, rather than the 11+ non-pancakes.

Haven't simmed it - maybe I will - but that's my feeling.

There's also the "who gets to play 1M-2M any more?" argument, of course And that might just save you with this hand opposite the 15-pancake.

There's a distinct argument for exactly those hands - the 4M333s - to be "Goren unbiddable" and open 1♣ anyway, Acol or no. But that path has a great big sign on it saying "responder must bid ♠5432, Just In Case", with a small American Flag at the bottom...

[Cyberyeti]

Partner had a 4333 16, we got an average for 3N-2, 2N=, 3N-2x2, 3N-3 were on the traveller, there is only one finesse to take (partner has ♣ AQx) and had the K and J been swapped, 3N would have made given they were 3-3, but it's not a good contract.

If the defence find their ruff (♥ Kx/Axxxx) 2♠ is -1 otherwise it makes.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

at IMPs the case for bidding something other than 1NT will be stronger.
If you bid 2S, will p assume 4 card support? If he does, he may press on with his 9 card fit.

But if you know the field, and everyone is overbidding, doing the same as the field will still
be ok, and staying out of game, when it makes, may be more costly.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[TMorris]

with 4333 I bid 1nt. I need the hope of a ruffing value to raise partner with three card support. It might be wrong but it is one less thing to think about so I just do it and save my limited concentration for something else.

[Tramticket]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-April-29, 13:38, said:

Partner had a 4333 16, we got an average for 3N-2, 2N=, 3N-2x2, 3N-3 were on the traveller, there is only one finesse to take (partner has ♣ AQx) and had the K and J been swapped, 3N would have made given they were 3-3, but it's not a good contract.

If the defence find their ruff (♥ Kx/Axxxx) 2♠ is -1 otherwise it makes.

What was your auction to 3NT? I would want 17 or a pretty good 16 to invite with 2NT over either a 1NT or 2S response - particularly at pairs. a 4333 16-count probably isn't enough for me.

But as I said previously, 9-point responding hands are difficult in Acol.

[Douglas43]

My normal approach to nine hcp hands is to upgrade to a two level response with Hxx in partner's suit. But here I'm settling for 1NT.

[mycroft]

Okay, did the sim. Code is here, for reference (and confirmation that I'm actually testing the right thing). Note that I don't open any 11s (which undercounts the "minimum unbalanced" 1♠ openers, I'm sure!)

Looks like a "5+, <15" is about half (45%) of your openers (half of those are exactly 5 spades), and 10(!) times more common than a "bad" (15 or 16 HCP) 4333. That's not counting the "15-17 5332s". Sample run:

out of 10000 1S openers said:

4333 hands: 698, 400 of them 15 or 16 HCP.
min unbal: 4382, 2895 of them exactly 5 spades.

Interestingly, predealing the given hand seriously increases the chance of a 4333 in dealer (~430 to ~700), but it's still 7% or so. And about 1/3 of those are 17-19 HCP. As opposed to 40-45% <15 HCP openers, 30%ish having exactly 5 spades.

But the important thing is the score, right? Not the "magic 8-card fit"? From the same run:

Quote

2S+ 1NT+ same
5996 2254 188

If you get to play your contract, the suit scores at least as well as NT 2-1; under some brute force assumptions (invite on any 17 Walrus, don't do anything else (bid second suit over 1NT, upgrade on shape and fit)). Those brute force assumptions are probably poor, and poor in favour of 2♠, but it's hard to beat 2-1 odds.

[Cyberyeti]

 Tramticket, on 2024-April-30, 05:40, said:

What was your auction to 3NT? I would want 17 or a pretty good 16 to invite with 2NT over either a 1NT or 2S response - particularly at pairs. a 4333 16-count probably isn't enough for me.

But as I said previously, 9-point responding hands are difficult in Acol.

I chose 2♣ which is only an issue opposite the strong NT -2N(GF)-3♠-3N, all the minimum hands we play 2♠, unbalanced 14+ I'm happy to play 3 or 4♠ depending on exactly what partner does next.