[nullve]

Cyberyeti, on 2023-March-23, 09:41, said:

Well he needs to have the ♥A as well.

Yes, but you can find out in time by leading the ♥7 from hand early.

[DavidKok]

phoenixmj, on 2023-March-23, 09:43, said:

Curious - what do you think of this logic? I am past 3N, and now I am committed to clubs. It is pretty clear that 3N will make more than 3, and 5C will make with the question being will 6 make. Should I say - 5c is likely a loser whether I make it or not. I am past 3N. I should just go to 6c with a 50/50 chance that the ace of hearts is onside? Else I am likely getting a very bad score anyway.

Thanks in advance.

At MPs this is a sound argument. If 5♣, making 11 or 12 tricks, is worth very few matchpoints anyway (in your estimate) while 6♣ making is worth almost all the matchpoints you are getting considerably better than even payoff for bidding 6. In those situations slam might be worth bidding even if you only have a 30% or 20% chance to make. But be careful - in my experience the field is rarely homogeneous enough that you can reliably predict that almost everybody is in 3NT. This would require a bidding disaster at your table to apply.