Posted 2022-May-08, 09:01
It appears that clubs are 5-3, and that west has Q9xxx. It has to be wrong to win the king, since east will usually get in again and then a third club let’s west run the suit. Not only is that 4 club losers but what do we pitch from dummy? Btw, regardless of which club we play are trick 2, we have to plan our discards now. As I note below, winning trick 2 with the king almost always dooms the contract.
If we assume 4 diamond tricks, either because they break 3-3 or because the Jack drops, we have 6 tricks and need only one more.
Put in the Jack of clubs. Now if west errs and plays a third club, we take two club tricks.
A competent west knows not to play a third club….so what does he play instead? Btw, I pitch a heart from dummy.
My plan is to play towards the heart QJ twice.
My expectation is that my line will dissuade them from playing on spades. I expect east to win the first heart and to play his last club, on which I’ll pitch a spade. Then, having won my club King, I’ll play another heart. West can run his clubs but the means I’ve set up my heart trick and they’ve not tackled spades.
This line does depend on what west plays at trick 3. If he plays a spade, I’m almost always down, but that’s why I pitch a heart at trick 2. That spade suit will look dangerous to west, who rates to hold an honour. Give me Hxx, where the H is the Jack or higher, and a spade switch from Hx(x) or HHx would be very bad.
Note that if we win the king at trick 2 and pitch a heart, then east wins the next trick, they run the clubs forcing three more pitches from dummy before we’ve set up the heart. If we stiff the spade ace they switch to spades with a heart entry!
If they do play spades at trick 3, I have to hope for misdefence. I duck, win the next club and lead another spade, hoping that they don’t work out my red honour location. But I’m being forced to make discards from dummy and can’t afford two hearts. So I don’t see much hope. However, I’d be very surprised at a spade switch.
Finally, note that east almost surely doesn’t hold both heart honours. AAK is enough for most to bid, and the odds are high that he has a spade card as well.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari