[jillybean]

This was a great, fun hand....
(IMPS)

---

Your bid!

[TMorris]

As a simple soul i will try 5 ♥. who knows in a guessing game

[Winstonm]

How many diamonds did you have mixed in with your hearts?

[apollo1201]

The question should be what do you bid next.

If you bid 5H, do you give up at 5S (I guess so).

If you bid 6H, are you letting 6S go (I guess not).

What strength promises (or denies) the 4S bid?

[pescetom]

apollo1201, on 2021-June-02, 11:32, said:

What strength promises (or denies) the 4S bid?

Perhaps more important, what length?
LoTT is in the picture here.

[shyams]

apollo1201, on 2021-June-02, 11:32, said:

The question should be what do you bid next.

If you bid 5H, do you give up at 5S (I guess so).

If you bid 6H, are you letting 6S go (I guess not).

What strength promises (or denies) the 4S bid?

I bid 5♥

As to what if opps bid 5♠, my (old) partnership agreement was:
* My (i.e. the 5♥ bidder's) double indicates a desire to bid on --- leaving partner to make the final call.
* My partner's double (say, over West's 5♠) is penalty oriented and strongly suggests that I don't remove it.

I would double 5♠, especially if West bids it and partner passes. I don't know what I would do if my 5♥ is followed by two passes, then East bids 5♠. I think I will pass.

[LBengtsson]

9 card suit you bid 5♥ and then let partner make the next decision. that stops them exploring slam in constructive way. there is no other bid. 6♥ is mad. pass is just non competing.

[jillybean]

Winstonm, on 2021-June-02, 11:17, said:

How many diamonds did you have mixed in with your hearts?

I'm short on diamonds, only 2.

pescetom, on 2021-June-02, 12:44, said:

Perhaps more important, what length?
LoTT is in the picture here.

"4♠ is to play, 3+"

[mikeh]

pescetom, on 2021-June-02, 12:44, said:

Perhaps more important, what length?
LoTT is in the picture here.

No it isn’t

Even Larry Cohen, who literally wrote the book, says the LOTT breaks down on freak hands

[mikeh]

[quote name='apollo1201' timestamp='1622655157' post='1024303'



If you bid 6H, are you letting 6S go (I guess not).

[/quote]

This is why you do NOT bid 6H here. A basic rule of applying pressure is to try to make the opps make the last guess.

Bid 5H.

If they bid 5S, they are very likely making, but they may have missed slam....LHO has to guess

If you bid 6H, and they bid 6S, you’re guessing whether they bid to make or as a save or as a two way shot...if 6S is making (and if they bid with a view to making, your spade Queen, which they are missing, means they’ve probably guessed correctly)...then you must save in 7H, hoping they can’t or won’t bid a making grand.

I fell from grace in a similar situation yesterday

AKQ10xxxx x Kx xx

(1C) to me, at favourable. I bid the obvious 4S.

Double on my left....values rather than penalty...pass by partner and 6C on my right.

I’m pretty sure that he bid 6C because he knew I couldn’t pass it, and I didn’t

Alas, partner’s only card was the diamond Queen, and one spade cashed. They couldn’t avoid a diamond loser.

Good news: at the other table my hand inexplicably doubled 5C so my -500 won 6 imps, lol. But the 6C call put me under pressure...I had to make the last guess, and got it wrong.

[jillybean]

---

I didn't want to give my opps an easy 5♠ bid, 6♥ applies the pressure here.
If they bid and make 6♠, I hope our teammates find 6 also, they may have a more room to explore if south doesn't intervene with 6♥.

As it was, our teammates were allowed to play in ♠, making.
+11 imps, our big plus of the night.

Note East's 4♠ call, exactly the type of hand I'm struggling with.

[smerriman]

jillybean, on 2021-June-02, 18:26, said:

I didn't want to give my opps an easy 5♠ bid...

Suppose West had the diamond K instead of the J. 6♥ gives them an easy 6♠ bid.. are they finding slam over 5♥?

6♥ works well when the opponents are taking exactly 11 tricks, but that seems a small window to aim for.

[sfi]

You got lucky. Not in the sense you think I mean, but because E-W make precisely 11 tricks in spades and your call gave them no good option. Luck is a good thing sometimes, but there are a few reasons why 5H is more likely to be successful than 6H.

First is that their action over 6H is likely to be clear. If they bid the slam they will make it most of the time, and if not they simply double you and take whatever score they get. If partner has a trick for you, so you're taking a good sacrifice against game, they're not making their slam. If partner doesn't have a trick, they still might have a slow defensive trick and you've taken a phantom. Over 5H however, they have to guess game, slam or penalties. You give them an additional chance to go wrong - miss slam or bid it when it doesn't work - and you've taken away most of their room to explore. In the long run, giving them harder decisions pays off.

So what went wrong for E-W here? West has no reason at all to think slam is making, so bidding it is just silly. They have two side aces so it looks a lot like your bid is an advance sacrifice. Double is just normal here with two heart losers. But East isn't blameless either. 4S is an ok bid if you have to guess at the final contract, but it gives partner no help if the auction doesn't end there. If East had done something else to show values and support, then West would be less likely to go wrong. Admittedly, East may well be preempted out of their plan on this hand, but the principal still applies.

One other possibility is that you know your customers, and knew they would not be able to resist overbidding. If so, the rest of the analysis kind of goes out the window.

[Winstonm]

This entire episode is like kibitzing a friend playing in flight B: no discipline and everyone winging it based on how they feel at the moment while trying to read tea leaves and guess results.

Bridge is hard enough without over complicating it. 5H is such a standout I doubt you would find any good player would have to give this hand any thought.

I understand being excited about your imp gain but the big picture is to be a better player and that requires grappling with why you bid 6H while the better players bid 5H,

[jillybean]

I don't get many hands like this (have I ever?) and did not know what to do with the hand. 5♥ and then 6♥/5♠ would clearly be wrong. I decided to make them guess, at the 6 level and got lucky. What is said above does make sense but I certainly wasn't thinking that way at the time.

Does vulnerability make a difference here, if we are White vs. Red?

[sfi]

jillybean, on 2021-June-02, 21:26, said:

Does vulnerability make a difference here, if we are White vs. Red?

Not that much. It changes the hands you might choose to act on since you can afford to lose more tricks, but most of the considerations are the same.

[mycroft]

It's a straight guess, as people are saying.

One thing I heard from a teacher many years ago: "bid to the level where, if they bid on, you're happiest." So I only bid 6 if I expect 6♠ to go down. If I'm unsure, I'll bid 5. I'll bid 5 if I'm certain 6 will make, too; but then I'll think about bidding 7/6 (or if this is a situation where this applies, double "I want to sacrifice" and see what partner says.

I'd also want to know what 4♠ means - because if East is my partner, that's a horrible call. If that's their system, then it's harder to know who can make what (for both sides).

[Cyberyeti]

mycroft, on 2021-June-03, 09:42, said:

It's a straight guess, as people are saying.

One thing I heard from a teacher many years ago: "bid to the level where, if they bid on, you're happiest." So I only bid 6 if I expect 6♠ to go down. If I'm unsure, I'll bid 5. I'll bid 5 if I'm certain 6 will make, too; but then I'll think about bidding 7/6 (or if this is a situation where this applies, double "I want to sacrifice" and see what partner says.

I'd also want to know what 4♠ means - because if East is my partner, that's a horrible call. If that's their system, then it's harder to know who can make what (for both sides).

Not sure it applies on this hand, but also you bid 6 if you think they can make 7 as they tend to settle for 6.

Memories of a different type of auction (3♦-X) to me and I earned a swing by the auction going 6♦-6♠ whereas at the other table it went 5♦-6♦-P-7♠

Agree with your comment on 4♠

Also note you're fortunate declarer doesn't have AJ/Ax in the minors or the slam makes on a squeeze.

[Winstonm]

jillybean, on 2021-June-02, 21:26, said:

I don't get many hands like this (have I ever?) and did not know what to do with the hand. 5♥ and then 6♥/5♠ would clearly be wrong. I decided to make them guess, at the 6 level and got lucky. What is said above does make sense but I certainly wasn't thinking that way at the time.

Does vulnerability make a difference here, if we are White vs. Red?

First, you’re doing fine and asking good questions. Vulnerability makes a difference only in the choice to act or not - risk v reward.
The biggest issue for you (IMO) is not to over complicate the game.

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2021-June-02, 14:58, said:

No it isn’t

Even Larry Cohen, who literally wrote the book, says the LOTT breaks down on freak hands

I've seen it said by others that it breaks down when the total tricks are over 20 but is fairly precise at lower levels.
I check it on many hands and see it off by 1 quite frequently at all levels, maybe more often over 20.
This one is 21 tricks and off by 1.