[pilowsky]

In "Searching for Bobby Fischer" Josh Waitzkin's father describes the moment that he gave up chess. It happened when my son said mate in 5 and even when he explained it I still couldn't understand it.
I bid 3NT and went down 2 - The Portuguese expert noted - well bid badly played.
I finally came up with what looks like a winning line but I'm still not sure I understand what happened. Here's the deal.
West leads ♥5 make 9 tricks

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The bidding is what happened at the table where the ♦Q was led and I turned it into mush.

Here's what I think may be an OK line.

Spoiler

But I'm not completely sure.
Possible winning line

[shyams]

The position after 9 tricks was

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All you have to do was play club 10 and play low from hand. If West ducks, you cash the ♦A. If West wins and continues either minor, your play at the previous trick ensures you get to enjoy both minor suit winners in dummy.

[DavidKok]

I'm not sure about the "well bid". Your contract can be made on anything but a club lead, but that doesn't mean that the 3NT call rated to be an odds-on action.

As for the play, let's go step by step. On a heart lead you are guaranteed 3 spade, 2 heart and 1 diamond trick, so you are tasked with developing 3 more. There are several chances - the ♥9 can take a trick, the ♠6 can take a trick, you can develop one trick in clubs by forcing out the ace and king, and there are diamond prospects. Since you need so many tricks playing on diamonds immediately is indicated. You are missing KQxxxx in that suit, and by taking the double finesse you are entitled to three tricks in that suit provided West holds at least one of the honours and at most 3 diamonds, or holds both the honours. This would put you up to 8 tricks, and after that you can look into the other options for that 9'th trick.

So you start by winning the lead as cheaply as possible, and (correctly) playing a small diamond to the 10 or 9. Running the jack here needlessly costs a trick if west covers from K/Q/Kx/Qx. After the ten holds the trick, best play is to cross back to the hand in spades and play a small diamond to the 9. You may have the read that West holds both missing diamond honours, but if East is a (very) good defender they may have ducked from Q872, limiting you to two tricks if you play a diamond to the jack now. So cross back in spades (why spades? Well, you can't reliably cross in clubs and you only have one heart stopper left) and play a small diamond, and no matter what West does you are now entitled to three diamond tricks.

So where to find that ninth trick? There are three plausible options - knock out the clubs and win the third round, turn that fourth spade in dummy into a trick, and somehow score the ♥9. West's failure to continue hearts when in with a diamond suggests the hearts are breaking 1-6 ('known' on the bidding, but I really don't think it pays to trust people's bidding if we don't have to), so playing on clubs is safe. Your ♥Q96 form a double guard against East's ♥JT8xx, so you can afford to lose the lead twice. This is what went critically wrong in your own line - you gave East another entry in the form of the fourth spade, while pitching a heart which blanked your 9 (at that point 9x was still a guard). So it is safe to play on clubs, losing twice and winning the third round, establishing nine tricks.

For the cherry on top, there are still spade and heart chances for an overtrick. You have successfully lost 3 tricks by now (two clubs and a diamond), so the count is right for a squeeze. Since East is known to hold heart length only he can be squeezed. However, by cashing the queen of spades early there is no entry back to the hand, so there is only a pseudo-squeeze chance. You can play for this by running the spades, and hoping that either they break 3-3 or that East had spade length and didn't realise they could freely pitch the winning ♥T on the diamond (on your line East went wrong a trick earlier, where they should have pitched the ♥8 instead of the ♠T).

I think that at the table this is line I would take, likely making 9 tricks on a heart lead (which is also the Double Dummy score). Something to point out is that playing on clubs early (to cross back to the hand after winning a diamond finesse, for example) is risky because it helps the defenders set up their long clubs, i.e. if they split 4-3 both defenders can duck after which it is risky to lose the lead. Also you want to tackle the spades last - either they break 3-3 or they don't (or someone gets squeezed, or thinks they are getting squeezed, or generally misdefended). You cannot establish extra tricks in that suit in any way, so there is no need to play them.

[Cyberyeti]

You've bid game on 13 opposite 10, you're going to get a good score just for making it, sacrificing yoour overtrick chances to make the contract has to be right, Win the diamond ace and then play one to the J, if it holds play another, when you get the lead back play clubs. If E has 6 hearts to the K and not both club honours the contract is now a spread conceding only 2 clubs and 2 diamonds.

You seem to play off winners before you need to when communications are much simpler if you don't.

[pilowsky]

DavidKok, on 2020-October-06, 06:25, said:

I'm not sure about the "well bid". Your contract can be made on anything but a club lead, but that doesn't mean that the 3NT call rated to be an odds-on action.

As for the play, let's go step by step. On a heart lead you are guaranteed 3 spade, 2 heart and 1 diamond trick, so you are tasked with developing 3 more. There are several chances - the ♥9 can take a trick, the ♠6 can take a trick, you can develop one trick in clubs by forcing out the ace and king, and there are diamond prospects. Since you need so many tricks playing on diamonds immediately is indicated. You are missing KQxxxx in that suit, and by taking the double finesse you are entitled to three tricks in that suit provided West holds at least one of the honours and at most 3 diamonds, or holds both the honours. This would put you up to 8 tricks, and after that you can look into the other options for that 9'th trick.

So you start by winning the lead as cheaply as possible, and (correctly) playing a small diamond to the 10 or 9. Running the jack here needlessly costs a trick if west covers from K/Q/Kx/Qx. After the ten holds the trick, best play is to cross back to the hand in spades and play a small diamond to the 9. You may have the read that West holds both missing diamond honours, but if East is a (very) good defender they may have ducked from Q872, limiting you to two tricks if you play a diamond to the jack now. So cross back in spades (why spades? Well, you can't reliably cross in clubs and you only have one heart stopper left) and play a small diamond, and no matter what West does you are now entitled to three diamond tricks.

So where to find that ninth trick? There are three plausible options - knock out the clubs and win the third round, turn that fourth spade in dummy into a trick, and somehow score the ♥9. West's failure to continue hearts when in with a diamond suggests the hearts are breaking 1-6 ('known' on the bidding, but I really don't think it pays to trust people's bidding if we don't have to), so playing on clubs is safe. Your ♥Q96 form a double guard against East's ♥JT8xx, so you can afford to lose the lead twice. This is what went critically wrong in your own line - you gave East another entry in the form of the fourth spade, while pitching a heart which blanked your 9 (at that point 9x was still a guard). So it is safe to play on clubs, losing twice and winning the third round, establishing nine tricks.

For the cherry on top, there are still spade and heart chances for an overtrick. You have successfully lost 3 tricks by now (two clubs and a diamond), so the count is right for a squeeze. Since East is known to hold heart length only he can be squeezed. However, by cashing the queen of spades early there is no entry back to the hand, so there is only a pseudo-squeeze chance. You can play for this by running the spades, and hoping that either they break 3-3 or that East had spade length and didn't realise they could freely pitch the winning ♥T on the diamond (on your line East went wrong a trick earlier, where they should have pitched the ♥8 instead of the ♠T).

I think that at the table this is line I would take, likely making 9 tricks on a heart lead (which is also the Double Dummy score). Something to point out is that playing on clubs early (to cross back to the hand after winning a diamond finesse, for example) is risky because it helps the defenders set up their long clubs, i.e. if they split 4-3 both defenders can duck after which it is risky to lose the lead. Also you want to tackle the spades last - either they break 3-3 or they don't (or someone gets squeezed, or thinks they are getting squeezed, or generally misdefended). You cannot establish extra tricks in that suit in any way, so there is no need to play them.

Thanks, guys,
It was the last thing at night so I was pretty tired! I figured 3NT was possible (ish) because after the weak 2♥ I thought I had a good idea of where the cards were. Wests 3♣ bid was also a bit strange.
Stepping through it again, when I reach the position shyams shows I can play the ♦A and if East discards the ♠9 my 6 is good. If not then the ♣10 is still fine.
Looks like my brain just turned to soup straight afterwards.

[johnu]

pilowsky, on 2020-October-06, 05:20, said:

Here's what I think may be an OK line.

Spoiler

But I'm not completely sure.
Possible winning line

At the point where you crossed to ♠Q, cash the ♦A and you'll make the rest of the tricks with a spade-heart squeeze against East.

[miamijd]

shyams, on 2020-October-06, 05:58, said:

The position after 9 tricks was

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All you have to do was play club 10 and play low from hand. If West ducks, you cash the ♦A. If West wins and continues either minor, your play at the previous trick ensures you get to enjoy both minor suit winners in dummy.

Or even simpler, just cash the Ad and lead either club. You know West has the Kc (East started with 4612, and you have seen the A and a small club. Also: (i) if East has the Kc you are dead and (ii) if East had the Kc, he would not have bid 2H. You also know West's original distribution: 2155. He has thrown two clubs and no diamonds, so he has 2 diamonds and 2 clubs left.

So just cash the Ad and lead a club. West can cash his last diamond, but then he has to give you the club at trick 13.

Cheers,
Mike

[doccdl]

The 2 ♥ bid makes the play a wee bit easy.Should be happy making nine tricks and not worry about a nonexistent tenth trick.