[thepossum]

Hi

I don't know if this is really a difficult enough decision. However I wasn't sure, playing MPs whether to Pass or try game.

We have 8+ trumps and using my (please be kind) favoured LTC approach few enough losers that I would consider 3S in the absence of competition
EW have 9+ trumps

So using my less favored LOTT that gives 17+ total tricks competing to the game level

White vs red.

I decided to pass, how would you evaluate it at MPs in a Free BBO tournament, not an advanced club tourney

regards P

---

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

4S, but it comes down to how much do you trust the opponents, that they know,
what they are doing.
Given that they are red, they should bid 4H with a fair chance of making, hence
you can go down -3 and still net a plus.
You also may push them to 5H, if your bid comes over convincingly.

From a defensive perspective you have 3 tricks, partner is still there, so passing
is not out of the question, may even be the MP bid.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[FelicityR]

Pass is never (usually) a bad bid, especially as West probably has the strongest hand at the table and you are under declarer here. Also, your hand is no stronger than when you first bid it, the singleton ♥ being a limited asset.

There's no guarantee that they are going to make 4♥. "Punting" 4♠ with limited values, trying to bamboozle the opponents into making a rash decision is taking them for granted. If you respect the opposition here, I'd rather pass. Partner has only promised three card support at most. If he had responded with a Bergen bid promising an extra trump, I would feel more confident bidding 4♠ here.

[Tramticket]

 thepossum, on 2019-July-10, 21:43, said:

Hi

I don't know if this is really a difficult enough decision. However I wasn't sure, playing MPs whether to Pass or try game.

We have 8+ trumps and using my (please be kind) favoured LTC approach few enough losers that I would consider 3S in the absence of competition
EW have 9+ trumps

So using my less favored LOTT that gives 17+ total tricks competing to the game level

White vs red.

I decided to pass, how would you evaluate it at MPs in a Free BBO tournament, not an advanced club tourney

regards P

---

The Law of Total Tricks is most effective in part-score auctions and a bit less effective and game level and higher. Having said this, it is still an interesting exercise to apply the Law to this problem. Let's consider how many trumps there are:
- It is fairly simple to estimate that we have an 8-card spade fit. Partner will have at least three spades for the raise, but would probably have done more with most four-card suits.
- It is less easy to estimate the opponents' heart holding. West has 5+ for the overcall. East may now be paying attention to the Law if bidding with the expectation of making 4♥, but since they seem to be short of high card points, it is likely that East is bidding, vulnerable at the four level, based on shape and will also have 5+ hearts (bidding to the level of fit).
- From this, my expectation of the total number of trumps is 18(ish) rather than 17+.

Now consider the various scenarios:
- The opponents are failing by two tricks: we would expect to make 10 tricks. At this vulnerability we do better to double and defend.
- The opponents are failing by one trick: we would expect to only make 9 tricks. Again we do better to defend.
- The Opponents are making 4♥: we would expect to go two-off (doubled). This is a worthwhile sacrifice.
- The Opponents are making 4♥ with an over-trick: we would expect to go three-off (definitely doubled). This is still a worthwhile match-point sacrifice at this vulnerability.

So the Law of Total Tricks is giving you a very simple message. It is worthwhile bidding 4♠ if the opponents are making 4♥, but not otherwise. Your aces and king offer plenty of chances in defence and it is perfectly possible that both the ace and king of spades will stand up. Partner may well have a trick (or two?!). I elect to defend as I think rthat we have a better than 50:50 chance of defeating them.

[hrothgar]

Couple points:

1. One of the things that I learned on the forums via discussions with jlall and the like is that it pays to be aggressive with unbalanced hands. These days, if I find myself with what feels like a "close" decision whether to pass or compete, if I have a stiff or a void I'll try to convince myself to bid.

2. They're red, we're not

I would bid 4!S, but I don't consider this obvious and could easily be convinced that I am wrong

[smerriman]

 Tramticket, on 2019-July-11, 06:05, said:

- The opponents are failing by two tricks: we would expect to make 10 tricks. At this vulnerability we do better to double and defend.

I elect to defend as I think rthat we have a better than 50:50 chance of defeating them.

But are you going to double? So far the poll have 6 votes for 4♠, 3 votes for pass, and 0 votes for double. If you pass, the first case you mentioned flips - it's better to declare.

4♠ looks like it has chances even with partner holding a minimum, and I'm not prepared to double, so I'm bidding 4♠.

[Tramticket]

 smerriman, on 2019-July-11, 14:44, said:

But are you going to double?

No, but partner is still there.

[thepossum]

Dear all

Thankyou all for your comments and knowing that my indecision wasnt too wrong. I think everyone assessed it perfectly. Defending was certainly a good option provided you could do it successfully - sadly I was one of a group that made an error in defence and scored badly. What I didn't mention in the original post is that I am more comfortable declaring or being the defensive leader than being the receiver of first lead - I still don't understand the Bots leads properly and am more likely to make errors. It needed good defence (well better than me )

Here are the four hands. Partner (Gib) led 4C, dummy played low and I won with the King. I attacked spades when there were two diamond tricks. I should have switched to diamonds after the QUeen from West but was on autopilot and sadly missed the opportunity, either that or I thought it may have had QJ doubleton - cant remember my thoughts - and I'm not sure when it plays high or low of equals. I just wasnt expecting partner to have 5 spades

---

Double dummy suggested that both contracts should set by 1 trick
In terms of scores in the group I was in

4S scored 100% - not sure how they managed it - sorry just checked, it was transferred to North by a World Class player , not played by South
4H-1 scored 98%
4S-1 scored 80%
4S-2 scored 40%
4H scored 8% - sadly this was me. I wasnt good enough to set it

[akwoo]

Playing with a good human opposite, I would pass, expecting that my good human partner would double or bid 4!S on most hands. (In some sense, it's never right for your partner to pass - either they make 4!H, in which case she should bid 4!S, or 4!H will fail, in which case she should double. The only reason for pass is if she doesn't know and thinks settling for an average score is better than gambling top or bottom.)

Playing with GIB, I lean towards doubling. You have a good defensive hand and might set the contract with only an ace opposite.

Sitting in the North seat, I would bid 4!S after partner passed.

[HardVector]

White vs Red is the ideal sacrifice situation. What you have to ask, is "Can I beat 4h?" The overcall is on your left, so that doesn't bode well for your isolated kings. Ideally, partner has and ace and a queen in the suits you have kings in, but I don't usually get that lucky. To me, it looks like 4h is making...provided that your LHO actually has a vulnerable 2h bid.