[MrAce]

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IMPs, you reached to 3 NT and opponents were silent through out after weak NT opening by S and 3 NT by North.
Lead = ♠3 (4th best)

EDIT: This problem is more for intermediate players so perhaps it is better adv+ players to hide their replies. Thanks!

[Tramticket]

Spoiler

We seem to have two spade tricks, two diamonds and very good chances of five club tricks - the only distribution that will stop us getting five club tricks is if west holds all four missing clubs (if east holds all four missing clubs it will show up when we play the ♣K and we can then finesse for the jack).

What can we do if west does have four clubs? The heart suit is frozen, but we could try diamonds before touching the clubs - ♦A, then run the seven. Maybe west started with 4144?

[Cyberyeti]

Spoiler

W has led his 4th highest spade of 4 so holds at least one club, in that knowledge you cash the A first, you must win the spade on the table to preserve the entries to pick up J9xx and cash the 5th one

[ahydra]

Cyberyeti, on 2018-March-21, 09:51, said:

Spoiler

W has led his 4th highest spade of 4 so holds at least one club, in that knowledge you cash the A first, you must win the spade on the table to preserve the entries to pick up J9xx and cash the 5th one

Spoiler

Good spot wrt. the ♣KQ8 able to pick up the J9xx offide, but why can't West have 4=4=5=0? Most prefer to lead majors than minors on an auction like this.

ahydra

[Cyberyeti]

ahydra, on 2018-March-21, 15:08, said:

Spoiler

Good spot wrt. the ♣KQ8 able to pick up the J9xx offide, but why can't West have 4=4=5=0? Most prefer to lead majors than minors on an auction like this.

ahydra

Spoiler

people tend to lead 4th highest of their longest and strongest, if they have a 5 card suit they tend to lead it

[ahydra]

Wish I played in your games Cyber, they sound much easier. Round here people lead just about anything (e.g. just the other day someone led a diamond from two small against my unopposed-auction 3NT and caught their partner with six).

Spoiler

On this auction I would be very tempted by a spade from e.g. ♠QJxx ♥Kxxx ♦Jxxxx ♣-. Of course, if you can rely on your opponent to lead 4th from strongest suit then go for it. And I suppose even if you can't, it looks like a guess pretty much as to who is more likely to have the four clubs.

ahydra

[nige1]

ahydra, on 2018-March-21, 21:32, said:

Wish I played in your games Cyber, they sound much easier. Round here people lead just about anything (e.g. just the other day someone led a diamond from two small against my unopposed-auction 3NT and caught their partner with six).

Defenders vary their leading styles. Hence, Cyberyeti's line is no cinch. It is simply the line overwhelmingly likely to succeed.

[Tramticket]

ahydra, on 2018-March-21, 21:32, said:

Wish I played in your games Cyber, they sound much easier. Round here people lead just about anything (e.g. just the other day someone led a diamond from two small against my unopposed-auction 3NT and caught their partner with six).

Spoiler

On this auction I would be very tempted by a spade from e.g. ♠QJxx ♥Kxxx ♦Jxxxx ♣-. Of course, if you can rely on your opponent to lead 4th from strongest suit then go for it. And I suppose even if you can't, it looks like a guess pretty much as to who is more likely to have the four clubs.

ahydra

Spoiler

Whilst opponents don't automatically reach for the 4th highest from a four-card suit, even at club level, they will usually select the 4th highest from a five-card suit if they have one (your ♠QJxx ♥Kxxx ♦Jxxxx ♣- example is interesting, but even if defenders would select the diamond on this hand I think it would be an exception).

Credit to Cyberyeti. I missed that inference.

[MrAce]

Good job Cyber!

I also agree to those who said people tend to lead their 4th best of their 5 card suit. Of course it is not guaranteed but as Nige1 said this is the line which succeeds much more often than any other possible line.

[Phil]

Looks like a hand from "How to Read Your Opponents Cards".

[Phil]

Double

[BillPatch]

Good job Cyber! Another reason for the rarity of fourth best from QJxx Kxxx Jxxxxx - is that Byrd & Anthias correctly would recommend the high ♠ rather than low on this auction.

[Cyberyeti]

BillPatch, on 2018-March-24, 19:50, said:

Good job Cyber! Another reason for the rarity of fourth best from QJxx Kxxx Jxxxxx - is that Byrd & Anthias correctly would recommend the high ♠ rather than low on this auction.

Yes, a high spade is much more likely to be from 4 when a 5 card suit is held than a low one.

[cherdano]

BillPatch, on 2018-March-24, 19:50, said:

Good job Cyber! Another reason for the rarity of fourth best from QJxx Kxxx Jxxxxx - is that Byrd & Anthias correctly would recommend the high ♠ rather than low on this auction.

What do you mean by "correctly"? It seems obvious to me that double dummy analysis favours high from QJxx compared to low.

If they really recommend leading high from QJxx just based on double dummy simulations the book is worse than I thought.

[BillPatch]

cherdano, on 2018-March-25, 16:03, said:

What do you mean by "correctly"? It seems obvious to me that double dummy analysis favours high from QJxx compared to low.

If they really recommend leading high from QJxx just based on double dummy simulations the book is worse than I thought.

Their double dummy analysis is more nuanced than that. Only when the bidding clearly favors majors, such as when the auction goes directly to 3 NT without Stayman does one favor the lead from QJxx, JTxx, T9xx, or longer.

[cherdano]

BillPatch, on 2018-March-25, 20:53, said:

Their double dummy analysis is more nuanced than that. Only when the bidding clearly favors majors, such as when the auction goes directly to 3 NT without Stayman does one favor the lead from QJxx, JTxx, T9xx, or longer.

I was only commenting on the choice of leading high or low from QJxx - assuming that's the suit you have decided to lead.