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Which finesse is more likely to be onside? percentage problem

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 02:31



Lead is ♦A (East plays the Jack) and ♦8.

What is the best line?

You can assume that it is equally likely for West to double or overcall 2♦ with 1363 with weak diamonds.
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#2 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 04:00

The most frequent EW distribution seems to be 2362 with West and 2524 with East. So with little else to go on that I can think of, it seems that the ♣K is (much) more likely to be onside and that the correct play therefore is a trump to the ace and another trump. (Bonus: West might have the stiff trump king.)
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#3 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 04:45

I'm no expert (as I've honestly admitted before) but I would play ♣Q at trick 3 and if not covered, unblock the ♣ 10. There's a possibility of being ruffed in a side suit, but how many players would not cover the ♣Q with the K? West cleverly ducking with ♣K is a risk I am prepared to take, but you are one trick further forward before deciding what do about the trump suit.
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#4 User is offline   alok c 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 06:17

♠Q if not covered, ♠10 from hand to set up ♠6 as the second entry to dummy. First entry will be utilised for playing ♣Q if not covered ,♣J from hand.If East has ♣Kxxx & ducks all along, I will require the 2nd ♠ entry to dummy for finessing ♥.
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#5 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 08:21

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#6 User is offline   wanoff 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 14:37

Finesse ♠Q.
At least if this wins (except 4-0) you will make. However if Kx is offside, ♠A and another won't guarantee the contract.
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#7 User is offline   gszeszycki 

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Posted 2017-April-23, 18:54

trick 3 I will try the top dia with the intention of pitching a heart (I no longer have to worry about 2 heart losers) if rho has (a highly unlikely) 3 dia or fails to ruff. If rho does ruff I will overruff and bang down the spade A and another spade. If lho stated with Kx they may feel endplayed and defend improperly (nothing wrong with giving the defense a chance to make a mistake). Worst case scenario we should have enough dummy entries to take the club finesses and lead toward the heart K (if needed).
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#8 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2017-April-24, 14:33

On the bidding and play to tricks 1 & 2, West has 6 diamonds and East has 2 diamonds.

There are 3 key cards you have to place, ♠K, ♥A, ♣K

If West has all 3, you have to try to drop a singleton ♠K (else you lose a spade, club, (1 or 2)hearts, and diamond)

If West has ♠K, ♥A, you have to play ♠A and a spade. If you finesse in spades, West can play a diamond for East to ruff (unless spades are 3-1) and you have to lose 2 hearts, a spade and diamond). You can draw trump, pitch a heart on a good diamond, and take a couple of club finesses.

If West has ♠K, ♣K, you have to try to drop a singleton ♠K, or you lose a spade, club, heart, diamond

If West has ♥A, ♣K, you have to take a spade finesse.

West should have at least 2 of the 3 keycards for a 2♦ overcall. So, I would play ♠A and a spade.
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