[Fluffy]

 chasetb, on 2015-November-13, 10:17, said:

Gonzalo, at Vul IMPs you break even just making 37% of your games. The South hand has a prime 8 HCP, you have the nice 4-4 fit, and that Heart suit has at least a decent chance of setting up for tricks and discards. It's definitely worth an invite no matter what, but when you are among the best in the world, you just bid it hoping to make, knowing everyone else will be there as well. I don't call it gambling, I look at it as statistics and ability influencing the game.

My only edited comment on this thread was about Csaba's coin flip

[lycier]

Hi Gwnn,Hi everyone :

Well and good.

Please allow me to say several defferent opinions.There are some things which we should take into consideration.

First,please don't myths top players, they are human, not god.
I think the bridge is a probability game in the parallel world, no one is always right. Of course,especially including top players.

I strongly think 4♠ only for win,especially when with better probability of success in competitive matches,not for others.Even 4♠ may be not a correct auction,however sometimes they are forced to make gambling because they can't afford to lose game !!!
This hand is just a good evidence. Their auction never keep always correct, otherwise the bridge world will never progress.

Second,please let's assume :
1)- After 2♠,can you confirm south hand upgrade to game-forcing values without invitation?
2)- If after 2♠,responder would rebid 3♠ to invite,how many players are there to be willing to bid game? I guess that almost of them will sign off at 3♠ with 15hcp hand.
Obviously there is no reason to bid game.Am I correct?
Without invitation in the 5422 balanced hand,they bid up to game directly,this auction just like a gambling,they hope to make gambling for win since they have been lucky dog in the past,I strongly think Luck is always a part of this game,gambling is always a part of this game , actually many many of decent players can't be a top players only because of lack of a bit of luck,not because of skill.All the top players are the darling of the lucky ones.

Third,play smolen including min-smolen convention only with 8hcp hand to game directly,there is 58% probability you will lose unless you first make invitation.

[Vampyr]

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

Obviously there is no reason to bid game.Am I correct?

Several posters have explained in detail why you are not.

Quote

I strongly think Luck is always a part of this game,gambling [/size] is always a part of this game[size="2"]

OK, so then this hand is just a normal example.

I am not sure that "gambling" is the word you are looking for here. The bidding on the hand is too aggressive for your taste. As mentioned above, many many bids are a bit of a gamble, whether they are overly aggressive or not aggressive enough.

[gwnn]

I explained already that I consider the hand worth a game force. In fact I would force to game at any form of scoring except bridge bingo (if I need to find a 2H square to finish my card). You can find some of my reasons or other people's above.

[jodepp]

Everything you do at a bridge table is 'gambling', even if you take a 90% action. Maybe the wording of the thread should be 'is 4♠ advisable?'

There's been an erudite discussion of IMP odds, so I won't rehash it. When you look at the thread hand, ask yourself: "will 4♠ (assuming you're vul) make the requisite one-third of the time to show a profit?" That is a totally subjective view, so I wouldn't throw anybody under a bus for saying 'no' (even though I'm a bit more optimistic about game chances - I like the 4-5 shape).

Also, since the hand came up in a long match, the IMP odds bear out - aggression pays. If the thread hand came up in a 6-board Swiss match, the IMP odds may not bear fruit. To illustrate, suppose the match was one board long; now, the IMP odds mean nothing. It becomes an equation of percentages. Thus one might wish to only invite in a short match; let's be honest, there are some major holes in the thread hand.

[Stephen Tu]

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

Second,please let's assume :
1)- After 2♠,can you confirm south hand upgrade to game-forcing values without invitation?

Yes, it's upgraded to a GF

Quote

2)- If after 2♠,responder would rebid 3♠ to invite,how many players are there to be willing to bid game? I guess that almost of them will sign off at 3♠ with 15hcp hand.
Obviously there is no reason to bid game.Am I correct?

No, you are not correct. Look, *if you could peek and see partner's hand*, perhaps you would not want to bid game. And if you are not in game, you actually would want to stop in 2♠ not 3. But bridge is not a game where you get to peek in partner's hand before you bid, except apparently for a few notorious pairs who have come to light in the past few months. If you bid only 3, you get to stop on this hand, *but you also end up stopping on lots of hands where partner has a 15 count, but game is laydown or has much better chances*. In the long run you lose, because you end up missing too many missing games, which loses you more IMPs from missed games than the IMPs you win when partner turns up with hands like this one and the defense is accurate.

[fourdad]

not gambling at all.....South and values at 10 total ponts with a partner whose hand is 15 minimum. 10+15=25.
Bid the game!
Why is this even a question of gambling?

[m1cha]

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

First,please don't myths top players, they are human, not god.

This is correct. They are just humans doing their job. But your teachers are also just humans doing their job. And the people who wrote the books from which your teachers have learnt, are also just humans doing their job. And they are actually the same kind of people who play in the Bermuda Bowl. They are doing their job and they are doing it very well, otherwise they wouldn't play in the Bermuda Bowl. So what more can we want? We should listen. There are no gods on earth playing or teaching bridge.

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

I strongly think 4♠ only for win,especially when with better probability of success in competitive matches,not for others.Even 4♠ may be not a correct auction,however sometimes they are forced to make gambling because they can't afford to lose game !!!

Well, let's assume a certain hand has 50 % of making game in 4♠. That means when you have two boards, the game should make in one of them and go down (by one trick) in the other. Let's assume we have two players, player A always bids game with this hand and another player always stays in 3♠ with it. Who is more successful?
Player A will win a game and lose another scoring 620 - 100 = 520.
Player B will win two part scores for 140 + 140 = 280.
Obviously player A will play bridge more successfully.
What we are trying to tell you is: There are situations where successfull bridge means, you have to play a full game even if the chance of making the contract is less than 50 %. The rate for IMPs vulnerable was placed by others here at ~ 37 %. This is not gambling. It is mathematics of probability.

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

Second,please let's assume :
1)- After 2♠,can you confirm south hand upgrade to game-forcing values without invitation?

Yes.

Hand evaluation does not stop at counting HCPs.

In the official German bidding system, for example, this hand counts
8 HCP
+ 1 point for a good 5-card suit
+ 2 points for two doubletons playing in a suit contract (in a different suit)
____
11 points in total.
Opposite a 1NT opening of 15 - 17 points (which we have been assuming), this is a total of 26 - 28 points in both hands, certainly enough for jumping to game with ~ 50+ % success rate.

Even there, hand evaluation does not have to stop. You might add
+ 1 for an ace and two tens with no queen (according to Marty Bergen)
- ½ for a king in a doubleton
- ½ for suggesting a 4-4 fit without HCPs in the trump suit
+ 1 for playing IMPs vulnerable (so you have to play more risky games)
So now the South hand has 12 points. You would jump to game with 12 points, wouldn't you?
Again, this is not gambling. It is bidding bridge supported by mathematics.

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

2)- If after 2♠,responder would rebid 3♠ to invite,how many players are there to be willing to bid game? I guess that almost of them will sign off at 3♠ with 15hcp hand.

I would not accept an invitation with the North hand if playing 15 - 17 NT. The North hand looks like pretty normal 15 points to me.

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

, actually many many of decent players can't be a top players only because of lack of a bit of luck,not because of skill.All the top players are the darling of the lucky ones.

There is nothing like constantly being lucky in bridge or elsewhere in this world. It's mathematics, statistics.

 lycier, on 2015-November-14, 05:56, said:

Third,play smolen including min-smolen convention only with 8 hcp hand to game directly,there is 58% probability you will lose unless you first make invitation.

First, this is not a normal 8 HCP hand. It is a very good 8 HCP hand worth at least two more points in a suit contract. Second, even if there is 58 % probability that you lose, you should be in game because you are playing IMPs vulnerable where, according to mathematics, you are more successful if you play risky games.

[Gazumper]

 gwnn, on 2015-November-13, 08:11, said:

what if someone offers me a coin toss where I can win 1 billion if it's heads but need to pay 900 million if it's tails (and I cannot make an insurance bet)? That is reckless gambling because I can ruin my whole life (and possibly other people's lives too).

You can sell one of your yachts.

[gwnn]

Well but that would ruin my life.

[barmar]

 jodepp, on 2015-November-14, 08:04, said:

Everything you do at a bridge table is 'gambling', even if you take a 90% action. Maybe the wording of the thread should be 'is 4♠ advisable?'

In the context of bridge, "gambling" usually means a taking a very risky action. As in "Gambling 3NT". An action with 90% probability of success doesn't fit this.

[jodepp]

 barmar, on 2015-November-14, 12:58, said:

In the context of bridge, "gambling" usually means a taking a very risky action. As in "Gambling 3NT". An action with 90% probability of success doesn't fit this.

I'll agree with you in principle, because I think we're saying the same thing.

[jogs]

 lycier, on 2015-November-13, 07:02, said:

---

Assume you hold south hand in the match,after 2♠,do you think you must bid up to game without invitation ?

What else? Any ideas?

This 'bid game or pass' style started about 25 years ago. A young unknown Norwegian pair destroyed an elite field with 70% games in a 4 session matchpoint event. All new suits on the 2 and 3 level are slam tries.
Invites gives info to two defenders and only one partner. What's one HCP worth? About a 15% greater chance of making game? When defenders know declarers exact HCP they defend more accurately. It is safer to exchange info on slam auctions because defenders usually have close to nothing and the info doesn't help them very much.

[miamijd]

As others have noted, vul at IMPs (or for that matter, even NV at IMPs) this isn't close. You bid game and hope it will make. At MPs, I would still bid game, but it's a closer call, especially if your partner opens the occasional 14 count.

You also have to remember that, especially at top levels, contracts make more often than they rate to on paper. World-class players typically play the eyeballs out of the cards most of the time as declarer. Defending the first few tricks, however (which is where most of the key decisions usually come), is often a guess where even the best players frequently go wrong.

[nullve]

 jogs, on 2015-November-14, 17:41, said:

A young unknown Norwegian pair

What were their names?

[gwnn]

The name of the young student? Albert Einstein.

[lorserker]

Hello, interesting thread.

I used to invite a lot, whenever i was in doubt i invited to also let partner have his say. Invitations are perceived as more polite and in the spirit of the game, as opposed to blasting to game like some maniac gambler.

Nowadays i agree with the people who proposed to scrap invitations altogether. I find there are many strong technical points in the posts above, and there is also the psychological one of "how do you like to lose?" Do you like to lose by having tried a bit too much, or do you prefer having lost some opportunities for being to timid?

[mikestar13]

Should be a slight correction of these odds. 37% is just a bit too thin: These are correct odds if and only if spades makes exactly 9 or 10 tricks, the defense doesn't vary if the contract is 3♠ or 4♠, and the contract is never doubled. I'd want about a 40% chance, myself.

Most of the variables favor aggression, however. The bold jump to 4♠ may inhibit the opponents from a double they ought to make; if they don't double and there is a reasonable chance that 8 tricks are the limit on a badly-splitting hand, the needed odds go down.OTOH, if they do double ... (That's why I don't particularly care for 37% games. Neither did Jeff Rubens in The Secrets of Winning Bridge.)