[Fluffy]

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♦6 Lead.

[mikeh]

I duck.

Rising is problematic because I need a lot of dummy entries to deal with the diamonds, the trumps, and the ditching of my clubs on the spades. Meanwhile giving a ruff isn't the end of the defence, if that is how they choose to defend. LHO will be endplayed into solving my black suit issues or surrender the trump suit, in which case I can deal with my black suits anyway.

I lose if LHO holds a stiff diamond AND the heart King, but wouldn't he bid with way with, eg, Axxx xxx x KJxxx? Or 5-5 same hcp?

There are some holdings on which rising is right, especially if I guess miraculously.....Axxxx Kx x KJxxx, win the diamond A, play trump A and another to endplay LHO, but that, and similar layouts, make tiny targets.

[alok c]

DA,then SK.

[rhm]

How many black cards does 1NT show?
My guess is at least 5-5.
With only 4 spades double would be more attractive, with only 4 clubs and 5 spades a 1♠ overcall would be more likely.
Accordingly West got either a doubleton diamond and a singleton heart or vice verse.
Not only is a diamond lead much more attractive with a singleton diamond, I also do not see how we can make the contract if West has a singleton trump and two diamonds. We will loose a trick in every suit, because we have no quick entry to dummy. (RHO will switch to clubs)

T1: Win ♦A.
T2,3: Play ♥ Q. Whether it will be covered or not, just play exactly 2 rounds of trumps to strip West of red cards.
T4: Spade. If West wins, he will be end-played. Should West unexpectedly turn up with 2-2 in the red suits and play another diamond you get an entry in diamonds to discard your club loser on spades.
If West ducks, win in dummy and continue spades, discarding clubs.

If West is 5♠=1♥=2♦=5♣, I see no winning line.
My line looses also when West has 2 red singletons. Here you should only draw one round of trumps before playing spades, but this looses when West has 5♠=2♥=1♦=5♣, because West can win the spade and exit in hearts

Rainer Herrmann

[phil_20686]

mikeh, on 2015-October-13, 16:38, said:

I duck.

Rising is problematic because I need a lot of dummy entries to deal with the diamonds, the trumps, and the ditching of my clubs on the spades. Meanwhile giving a ruff isn't the end of the defence, if that is how they choose to defend. LHO will be endplayed into solving my black suit issues or surrender the trump suit, in which case I can deal with my black suits anyway.

I lose if LHO holds a stiff diamond AND the heart King, but wouldn't he bid with way with, eg, Axxx xxx x KJxxx? Or 5-5 same hcp?

There are some holdings on which rising is right, especially if I guess miraculously.....Axxxx Kx x KJxxx, win the diamond A, play trump A and another to endplay LHO, but that, and similar layouts, make tiny targets.

If you duck can east not switch to a club? That will beat you on many reasonable layouts right? I mean, you pretty much rho to have the heart k. Otherwise you will have a loser in every suit. If you rise and table the heart Q, you will win pretty much whenever lho has a singleton diamond, or when rho has the heart k right? I think the diamond ruff is a mirage, the danger is a club switch. I think you should rise.

[nige1]

Fluffy says "♦6 Lead. Something is breaking badly"

Guessing that LHO is likely to be short in the red suits: ♦A, finesse ♥J, Lead a ♠ when you get in hoping that LHO has something like
♠ A x x x ♥ K x x ♦ x ♣ K J x x x

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[rhm]

nige1, on 2015-October-14, 17:26, said:

[hv=pc=n&s=s4hajt63dq952caq3&n=skqj5hq74dat87c72&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1dp1h1n(!s%2B!c)d(support)p4hppp]266|200|
Fluffy says "♦6 Lead. Something is breaking badly"

Guessing that LHO is likely to be short in the red suits: ♦A, finesse ♥J, Lead a ♠ when you get in hoping that LHO has something like
♠ A x x x ♥ K x x ♦ x ♣ K J x x x

I do not see how you win on this layout against good defense.
LHO simply wins and returns a trump.
My guess is you will now lead a spade from hand, which LHO will duck.
This way you can avoid losing more than one trick in the black suits, but you have not the entries to avoid 2 diamond losers as well.
RHO goes in when you play a diamond from the table to protect the diamond jack when diamonds are 1-4.
The defense will either come to a trick in each suit or to 2 diamond tricks because of lack of dummy entries.
Chances of making when LHO has the heart king (and the club king) are poor.

Rainer Herrmann

[dboxley]

nige1, on 2015-October-14, 17:26, said:

Fluffy says "♦6 Lead. Something is breaking badly"

Guessing that LHO is likely to be short in the red suits: ♦A, finesse ♥J, Lead a ♠ when you get in hoping that LHO has something like
♠ A x x x ♥ K x x ♦ x ♣ K J x x x

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This is not an answer to the problem but why are you, and someone else previously, playing the NT bidder for 4315 and a perfect takeout dbl?

[nige1]

dboxley, on 2015-October-16, 04:45, said:

This is not an answer to the problem but why are you, and someone else previously, playing the NT bidder for 4315 and a perfect takeout dbl?

Fair criticism from dboxley (and rhm). My half-baked musings were: 4135 or 4144 is a better shape for a T/O double than 4315. LHO's 1N overcall advertised a black 2-suiter but with 5+ ♠s but many players would just overcall 1♠, so you might place him with longer/better ♣s e.g. 5116 or 4216 or 4315.

The other possible start I considered was ♦A, ♥A, ♠x. At least, you avoid losing to singleton red kings