In 1804, the Corsican upstart Napoleon Bonaparte crowned himself as Frances emperor. His mother, born Letizia Ramolino, did not attend the coronation. Informed of her sons self-elevation, she is said to have remarked coolly: Lets hope it lasts.
In conversations with conservative friends about the Trump presidency these last three years, I often found myself thinking about Mother Bonaparte. Before Donald Trumps election I made a lot of dire predictions about how his mix of demagogy and incompetence would interact with real world threats: I envisioned economic turmoil, foreign policy crises, sustained domestic unrest. Having lived through the failed end of the last Republican presidency, I assumed Trumps administration would be a second, swifter failure, with dire consequences for both the country and the right.
In 2017, 2018, 2019, those predictions didnt come to pass. Trump was bad in many ways, but the consequences werent what I anticipated. The economy surged; the world was relatively stable; the country was mad online but otherwise relatively calm. And as the Democrats shifted leftward and Trump delivered on his promised judicial appointments, many conservatives who had shared my apprehensions would tell me that, simply as a shield against the left, the president was doing enough to merit their support in 2020.
To which I often murmured something like, lets hope it lasts.
It hasnt. Now we are in the retreat-from-Moscow phase of the Trump presidency, with crises arriving all together pandemic, recession, mass protests and the president incapable of coping. If the election were held today, the result could easily resemble 2008, the closest thing to a landslide our divided system has recently produced. Meanwhile across corporate and journalistic and academic America, a 1968-ish spirit is pulling liberalism toward an uncertain destination, with what remains of conservatism turtled for safety or extinct.
In this environment, few conservatives outside the MAGA core would declare Trumps presidency a ringing success. But many will stand by him out of a sense of self-protection, hoping a miracle keeps him in the White House as a firewall against whatever post-2020 liberalism might become.
This is a natural impulse, but they should consider another possibility: That so long as he remains in office, Trump will be an accelerant of the rights erasure, an agent of its marginalization and defeat, no matter how many of his appointees occupy the federal bench.
In situations of crisis or grave difficulty, Trump displays three qualities, three spirits, that all redound against the movement that he leads. His spirit of authoritarianism creates a sense of perpetual crisis among his opponents, uniting left-wingers and liberals despite their differences. His spirit of chaos, the sense that nothing is planned or under control, turns moderates and normies against him. And finally his spirit of incompetence means that conservatives get far less out of his administration than they would from a genuine imperial president, a man of iron rather than of pasteboard.
You can see the convergence of these spirits in the disaster at Lafayette Park, where an authoritarian instinct led to a chaotic and violent police intervention, a massive media freakout, blowback from the military and left the president with an impious photo op and control of six blocks around the White House to show for it.
That last image, the president as a dictator of an island and impotent beyond it, seems like a foretaste of what would await conservatives if Trump somehow slipped through to a second term. Maybe he would get to replace another Supreme Court justice maybe. (In a Democratic Senate, not.) But everything else the right needs would slip further out of reach.
Conservatism needs a response to the current movement for social justice that answers just claims and rejects destructive ones. Trump delivers a conservatism of Confederate war memorials that vindicates the left.
Conservatism needs new ideas about how to use power, a better theory of the relationship between state, economy and culture than the decadent Reaganism that Trump half-overthrew. Trump offers only a daily lesson in how to let power go to waste.
Conservatism needs a way to either claim more space in Americas existing elite institutions, or else a path to building new ones. Trump offers a retreat to the fortresses of OANN, TPUSA, QAnon.
Above all, conservatism, now a worldview for old people and contrarians in a country trending leftward, needs a mix of converts and sympathizers to be something other than a rump. Trump did win some converts in 2016, but he has spent four years making far more enemies, and their numbers are growing every day.
What we are seeing right now in America, an accelerated leftward shift, probably wont continue at this pace through 2024. But its likely to continue in some form so long as Trump is conservatism, and conservatism is Trump and four more years of trying to use him as a defensive salient is not a strategy of survival, but defeat.
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Mr. Flor could easily pay for this bill if he used coupons when shopping and used regular instead of premium gasoline in his car. WTP?
