John asks:
I think that the fact we have over 400 million guns in circulation in the US is a problem equal to COVID, Ukraine, inflation, etc. That we have an “armed citizenry” represents a public-safety issue, a public-health issue, and a threat to democracy all rolled into one, and this seems to be massively under-covered in the mainstream media and on Substack. Why do you think that is? Why don’t you focus on this issue?
John sent this question in a few weeks ago, but it’s especially relevant this week for obvious and tragic reasons.
I would not rank guns at the top of the list of problems John provides — drastically more people have died from COVID than from firearms over the last couple of years, for example.¹ But I broadly agree that it would be desirable if the US had fewer guns, and if we had policies that materially restricted access to guns compared to the policies we have now.
Violent crime is a major problem in the US — one that’s gotten somewhat worse over the last three years — and one of the reasons it’s a bigger problem here than in peer countries is the large number of guns in circulation. Guns also facilitate suicide — suicide accounts for a majority of all gun deaths. Perhaps the largest public health benefit from reduced availability of guns would be fewer suicides.
The reason I don’t write about the topic very much is that I don’t think either the political arguments we have about guns or the available policy changes we might implement about guns are likely to have important effects on death rates or violent crime rates.
We cannot have the broadly restrictive gun policy of places like Japan or the United Kingdom, not just because of the practical and constitutional challenges associated with confiscating hundreds of millions of American firearms, but because doing so would be very unpopular — Gallup finds only 19% of Americans think handguns should be generally prohibited, down from around 40% throughout the 1980s.
Instead, we end up talking about policies with very limited effects at the margin — prohibitions on certain kinds of rifles (even though a large majority of gun deaths are associated with handguns) or changes to background check systems that have only marginal effects on availability. And in addition to these policies being mere tinkering around the edges, the poll results that often show them to be very popular are a mirage.
For example, universal background checks poll extremely well, but if you put them to the voters as referenda, the results show you a country that’s close to evenly divided — passing by one point in Nevada, losing by four in Maine. That 2016 proposal in Maine started out up 40 points in the polls, and gun control proponents outspent opponents by a 6-to-1 margin. And it still lost — because Americans aren’t as supportive of even incremental gun regulations as they claim to be when pollsters ask.² Americans on average want a country where it’s pretty easy to get a gun, and we’re going to have to make policy within that context. And as such, I think gun policy is a very weak lever for moving outcomes about well-being, and I don’t focus on it very much.
I also think there is a way in which the public conversation about guns is extremely similar to the one about COVID. Back in February, I quoted Sam Adler-Bell’s New York piece about David Leonhardt and his COVID-hawk detractors, in which Adler-Bell admitted that much of the fight over residual non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as masks) was “as much about how we should regard all this suffering as they are about how we may prevent it.” He wrote:
The pandemic has dealt unspeakable damage, but our social system has evinced a remarkable capacity to metabolize mass death and to acquiesce to more and more morbid definitions of normal. For Leonhardt’s sharpest critics, this appetite for normalcy is a disturbing sign of our callousness; for his defenders, it’s the only way beyond our despair.
And I think this explains the nature of a lot of the immediate response after mass shootings. Efforts to pass incremental gun control laws aren’t just a strategy to prevent shootings; they are also an expression of outrage about the shootings, and about gun culture more broadly. They are a statement about how we should regard a mass murder — and a political fight can make that statement even if the underlying legislation never becomes law.
I think it’s an understandable impulse to want elected officials to reflect your anger and, in certain contexts, a perfectly healthy impulse. Politics is something we do together and it has expressive content. But as you have likely noticed, this is not what I think politics is for.
I don’t need elected officials to express my anger over people being killed. If they reflect people’s anger at no political cost, that’s all well and good. But if — and this is what I fear is happening in Texas — you have Beto O’Rourke take a political approach around guns that’s more designed to appeal to national grassroots Democratic donors than the marginal Texan voter, then raising the salience of the gun issue will simply hurt Democrats and make them less likely to win his and other elections in the state. And I don’t think that serves the interests of anybody on our side, including those who would like more stringent restrictions on guns. Remember, it’s not just liberals — it’s not primarily liberals — who get energized by the gun control debate.
Finally, I’d note the parallel disbelief among politically engaged liberals about gun policies and COVID policies: wanting to know how the restrictions they favor aren’t being implemented, even despite pages of issue polling they can point to in order to claim the public is on their side. I don’t say this to pile on, especially this week — on the merits, I think these people are quite a bit more right about guns than they are about masks. But I think it also behooves them to understand that the issue polling is lying to them, on both issues. Their values and priorities differ from most of the public’s, and that’s an important thing for anyone to know when engaging in politics.
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1 We might also consider how the public rates the problems John listed by looking at Gallup’s monthly Most Important Problem survey. In April, 23% of respondents cited inflation, cost of living, or fuel prices as the most important problem facing the country; another 12% made more general complaints about the economy. 5% cited issues with Russia. 4% named COVID or other disease. 1% said guns or gun control, with another 2% commenting more generally on crime or violence.
2 I would refer you to my January podcast with pollsters on the bedeviling unreliability of issue polling, including the issue of “acquiescence bias”: people are just too likely to tell you they favor almost any proposal.