https://www.theinsig...s-of-august?s=r
For the second anniversary of the pandemic, I write a
counterfactual history of some of the key early turning points: accepting transmission without symptoms, recognizing airborne spread, the importance of clusters, and the need to increase vaccine supply and distribute it equitably.There is, obviously, more, but it’s already a lengthy article. Plus, early action obviously is crucial, as well as vaccination as fast and as widely as possible.
...On the political dysfunction: much has been written about it already, by many others. Occasionally, I do too. How to move forward despite it, and also while addressing it, is not an easy question whatsoever—and that is an understatement, obviously, to the depth of the challenge.
But there are two things to add here. One, Trump’s massive, negative impact on the first year of the pandemic in the United States is obvious. But it wasn’t just the United States that failed in ways, say, South Korea which was quite unlucky with early major superspreading events did not. Many countries, including many in Western Europe not ruled by incompetent wanna-be authoritarians failed in similar ways.
Plus, even in the United States, it wasn’t just Trump, as terrible as his administration was. It is a difficult truth, but many of our liberal institutions and key public health officials, many of whom did not work for Trump and thus were free to say what they wanted, made pronouncements and gave and promoted advice that turned out to be very wrong, and contrary to evidence. Were they well-meaning? I don’t doubt that part. We still need to do better, though. (Free article idea: tracing the first three-four months of the United States response, but not just Trump.)
Back to the counterfactual: the point is to figure out what was possible so that we can have a broader view of why those roads weren’t taken, exactly so that maybe, just maybe, we can learn and do better next time—not just for a pandemic, but clearly, the broad degradation of how our societies function. It’s so apparent over the past few decades: many things that became even more possible thanks to wealth, technology and science have become worse in their functioning. But that exact wealth, technology and science make it possible to turn this around.
Meanwhile, on a related note to this moment, I’m going to recommend two amazing books for this moment, both by the great historian Barbara Tuchman.
First is "Guns of August: The Outbreak of World War I", tracing the initial month of World War One, setting in place dynamics that would define the first half of the 20th century, arguably also the 1918 pandemic. (Non-affiliate links).
The second one "March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam", a history of societies that failed because the elites did not take actions that were plausible, available, rational and even in their self-interest.
My most sincere wish is that we stop writing an additional chapter to that book.
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