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Let's see, there are many possible bidding sequences with these hands, and most of them do not lead to 4♠.
Possibility 1: 1♣ - Does not get as many points
2: 1♥ - Again doesn't win as many points ~12.5% +6.25% MPs
3: 1NT - Also probably doesn't get as many points ~6.25% +6.25% MPs
4: 1NT with transfer to spades - About equal to this ~18.75% +9.375% MPs
5: 1 something - 1♠ stuff ending in 3♠ - About equal to this ~12.5% +6.25% MPs
6: 1 something - 1♠ - 2NT - Probably doesn't get as many points as this ~12.5% +12.5% MPs
7: 1 something - 1♠ - stuff ending in 3NT - Beats this if it makes, loses if it fails, but with how they'd likely play it'd probably only make about 20% of the time, ~12.5% +10% MPs
8: 1 something - 1♠ - stuff ending in 4♠ - Beats this ~12.5%, +0 MPs
Total: +69.375% MPs So I'll go with 60-70%.
Guess the MP score
#22
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Posted 2015-July-21, 23:17
Hm. I estimated 70% too -- but on the assumption that almost everyone in my club is getting to 4S (even the ladies with walkers are bidding on 5 HCP and a 5-card suit now, it seems) but most of them finding a way to lose 4 fast tricks.
#23
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Posted 2015-July-22, 02:32
BBF has guessed the score succesfuly, not very popular option perhaps, but a win is a win.
#24
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Posted 2015-July-22, 03:26
Well, turned out that +170 was worth 33% (I made a typo in the OP, it was 7.5 tables, not 8.5) with most pairs in 3NT or 4S making (one making an overtrick on ♥K lead, and I guess a later diamond switch). In a very quick post-mortem I basically said that I didn't want to be in 4S looking at the 2 hands. I had claimed when I had 2 diamond tricks and hadn't realised that hearts were breaking 3-3 also.
Wayne Somerville
#25
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Posted 2015-July-22, 04:41
manudude03, on 2015-July-22, 03:26, said:
Well, turned out that +170 was worth 33% (I made a typo in the OP, it was 7.5 tables, not 8.5) with most pairs in 3NT or 4S making (one making an overtrick on ♥K lead, and I guess a later diamond switch). In a very quick post-mortem I basically said that I didn't want to be in 4S looking at the 2 hands. I had claimed when I had 2 diamond tricks and hadn't realised that hearts were breaking 3-3 also.
Not a total surprise, 1♣/♥-1♠-3N (15-16=1N, 17-18=2N, 19=3N) or playing a 19-20 balanced 2N because you have 2 2N openers one of them thru 2♦ are fairly prevalent in UK club bridge, and either of these will get you to game.
We'd start with 2N because we play good 19-21 for our 2N opener.
#26
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Posted 2015-July-22, 13:57
In better company 60+ od game isnt it!