5 different cards chosen by panelists, close to even 4 way split among both panelists and solvers for the top lead.
Lead Problem H - MSC August T4 K83 J43 AT843 against 1nt-2C-2S-3S-4S
#1
Posted 2015-July-12, 23:53
5 different cards chosen by panelists, close to even 4 way split among both panelists and solvers for the top lead.
#2
Posted 2015-July-13, 09:33
About the only suit I would rule out would be diamonds. Jxx is an awful lead, requiring specific holdings to gain a trick and often blowing one, as well as blowing a tempo, tho when the opps strain to bid game after a 1N, tempo is not as important as it usually is.
I can see the case for a spade, but on this auction the trump may not be the passive lead we were playing to make. There are a lot of holdings where leading from 10x picks up the suit for declarer.
The heart suit is what I would lead....I would lead low. This can blow up as well, but my experience with these leads has been generally pretty good. Leading from a short K when the Ace rates not to be in dummy often gains immediately and, when it doesn't, often ends up not costing a trick...imagine dummy with J10xx and declarer AQx.
Clubs...we can lead the Ace and hope to catch a stiff in partner's hand, or we can lead low, hoping for good things either now (partner with Kx for example, or the K in dummy and partner with the Q, or partner with a doubleton and a trump entry, but to me all of these are low percentage, and not assured to win....will partner, with xx in clubs, always win his trump and return clubs?
I probably underlead Kings more than most people, so I suspect I am biased here, but the heart is, to me, the best lead.
Frankly the other options don't interest me: I don't ever think that way at the table, and I don't think that double dummy assumptions are ever warranted in the actual game.
#3
Posted 2015-July-13, 15:10
At the table I agree with mikeh that it's a guess, but I pretty much have the reverse preference:
A heart is my last choice - I barely registered it as an option after first glance.
ATxxx has too much chance of blowing the suit wide open for my limited capacity to find the killer switch after seeing dummy. Better players than me would prob do better from it.
Leading a S probably won't do much to cut down on ruffs in a 4-4 hand, and has a 3/10 chance of picking up partner's queen (and a little extra of carving a K holding since I have the 10).
I don't like leading from Jxx much more than mikeh, but it feels less likely to give away a trick they couldn't pick up anyway than any of the others.
#4
Posted 2015-July-13, 16:48
#5
Posted 2015-July-13, 19:40
Far from convinced this is the best choice.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#6
Posted 2015-July-14, 02:35
Jinksy, on 2015-July-13, 15:10, said:
3/10 is the probability that partner has any 3-card holding including the queen, given that all we know is that he has three cards. However, that's not the probability of picking up his queen.
To calculate the actual probability of picking up partner's queen you have to exclude layouts where declarer was going to finesse it anyway, and the layouts where partner's holding is strong enough to survive the lead. That means you have to exclude layouts where:
- Declarer has the jack
- Dummy has AKJ
- Partner has the jack
- Partner has the king and there was an intrafinesse
- Partner has 98
- Partner has the nine and dummy has HJ
Furthermore, we're expecting partner to have about 7/32 of the outstanding high-card strength. The probability has to be reduced to reflect that expectation.
I'd guess that the actual chance of picking up partner's queen is in the 2-3% range.
#7
Posted 2015-July-14, 03:16
#8
Posted 2015-July-14, 03:43
the_clown, on 2015-July-14, 03:16, said:
Maybe even first choice, if you held the card.
London UK
#9
Posted 2015-July-14, 03:57
gnasher, on 2015-July-14, 02:35, said:
To calculate the actual probability of picking up partner's queen you have to exclude layouts where declarer was going to finesse it anyway, and the layouts where partner's holding is strong enough to survive the lead. That means you have to exclude layouts where:
- Declarer has the jack
- Dummy has AKJ
- Partner has the jack
- Partner has the king and there was an intrafinesse
- Partner has 98
- Partner has the nine and dummy has HJ
Furthermore, we're expecting partner to have about 7/32 of the outstanding high-card strength. The probability has to be reduced to reflect that expectation.
I'd guess that the actual chance of picking up partner's queen is in the 2-3% range.
But it can also pick up his king, or turn KJx, AJx, KQx and AQx into one trick.
#10
Posted 2015-July-14, 13:23
PhilKing, on 2015-July-14, 03:57, said:
I intended AQx and KQx to be included in my 2-3%, but anyway I agree that these are all reasons not to lead a trump. I was just nitpicking Jinksy's calculation, rather than actually advocating a trump lead (though it is what I'd lead).
#11
Posted 2015-July-15, 12:05
gnasher, on 2015-July-14, 02:35, said:
To calculate the actual probability of picking up partner's queen you have to exclude layouts where declarer was going to finesse it anyway, and the layouts where partner's holding is strong enough to survive the lead. That means you have to exclude layouts where:
- Declarer has the jack
- Dummy has AKJ
- Partner has the jack
- Partner has the king and there was an intrafinesse
- Partner has 98
- Partner has the nine and dummy has HJ
Furthermore, we're expecting partner to have about 7/32 of the outstanding high-card strength. The probability has to be reduced to reflect that expectation.
I'd guess that the actual chance of picking up partner's queen is in the 2-3% range.
Well sure, but by 'picking up' I mean 'effectively solving for declarer on the lead', not doing something he couldn't theoretically do himself. In many such situations his options for playing the hand will then then give him fewer opportunities to go wrong elsewhere. If we knew the actual probabilities of it giving something away and of (say) a small diamond doing the same, we wouldn't have a lead problem.
#12
Posted 2015-July-15, 12:06
gordontd, on 2015-July-14, 03:43, said:
There's an important space in the the_clown's sentence that you haven't credited him with.
#13
Posted 2015-July-15, 12:50
#14
Posted 2015-July-15, 13:03
Mbodell, on 2015-July-12, 23:53, said:
- ♠ Passive. John Mclaren called trumps "The Idiot's lead". Lead the ten not the four.
- ♥ Aggressive. Might set up a trick before loser cab be discarded on dummy's club.
- ♦ Wishy-washy. Usually passive but might set up a trick.
- ♣ The sight of dummy may suggest something
#15
Posted 2015-July-15, 20:49
#16
Posted 2015-July-15, 22:36
cherdano, on 2015-July-15, 20:49, said:
interesting
I would have lead a h, aggressive as a nonexpert....ty for post.
#17
Posted 2015-July-16, 06:26
The lead of a heart might score OK in the Bridge World, but that is because although times have changed, the panel contains a lot of octogenarians who are used to a far more aggressive style of leads.
#18
Posted 2015-July-16, 06:35
mikeh, on 2015-July-13, 09:33, said:
PhilKing, on 2015-July-16, 06:26, said:
Ouch! For what it is worth I was also surprised Mike went for the heart.
#20
Posted 2015-July-16, 08:04
PhilKing, on 2015-July-16, 06:26, said:
The lead of a heart might score OK in the Bridge World, but that is because although times have changed, the panel contains a lot of octogenarians who are used to a far more aggressive style of leads.
Well, it isn't as tho we have a purely passive lead on the hand. Had my spades been even a tad worse, I would have led one in a heartbeat. Were my diamonds lacking the J, that would have been an easy choice as well. IMO, all of the lead options were dangerous, which is presumably why it was seen as a good problem. The fact that 'the very top players virtually never lead away from a king' on this type of auction doesn't impress me very much, because on virtually all auctions like this, we will have at least one lead that seems far safer than leading away from the king. Fwiw, I would not lead from the king here if I held 4 or more in the suit, since that would slightly increase the chances of the most dangerous declarer holding...a doubleton with his side holding the A and the Q. I think I'd lead a spade then.
So, while I am not even close to being one of the very top players, I would 'virtually never lead away from a king on this auction' either it's merely that when all leads are bad, this time the heart seems to me to be the best of a bad bunch.
IMP all red
5 different cards chosen by panelists,
close to even 4 way split among both panelists and solvers for the top lead.