[eagles123]

---

imps if it matters

thanks

Eagles

[apollo1201]

4H. I am a bit weak in S to just punt 6, need too much from p with S honors probably offside. Maybe X followed by 5H on 4s does better justice to the hand.

[The It]

Torn between X and then Hearts or 4H directly at this vulnerability, probably would bid 4H.

I'd certainly X if we were vulnerable against not.

[broze]

4H.

Dbl has several ways to lose:

1) P bids 4S and 5H is going down.
2) P has the two minor aces and makes a another try and the 5 level is not safe.
3) P has lots of stuff but 6H is down on a spade lead through the King.

With the QS instead of the Jack I would go.

[PhilKing]

Unless using the Nigel scoring method, 4♥=10 everything else = 0.

[gszes]

4h

It is very tempting to want to at least try for 6 since it seems unreasonable for rho to have any holding that equals 4c where we cannot make slam.
The problem is not just the opps there is always that CHO (center hand opponent) that will think a bit too highly of their holding and put us one level too high. If p decides to try and push us toward slam after we bid 4h we should be all too happy to accept.

[KurtGodel]

PhilKing, on 2015-May-17, 06:31, said:

Unless using the Nigel scoring method, 4♥=10 everything else = 0.

I forecast that he will put bids that aren't 4♥ as low as 7.

[eagles123]

well yeah I bid 4 and guess what we're cold for 7

I posted pd's hand on BW

http://bridgewinners...g-problem-8009/

one of those things?

Thanks

Eagles

[steve2005]

eagles123, on 2015-May-17, 12:59, said:

one of those things?

Thanks

Eagles

That's why people pre-empt it works.

[broze]

steve2005, on 2015-May-17, 14:00, said:

That's why people pre-empt it works.

Not only this but it shows how effective *under-preempting* can be, ie. bidding to one level lower than your fit, particularly at the level where opps are bidding 4M. If South has to bid his suit at the 5 level he might well fetch a raise from North.

[Mefisto500]

PhilKing, on 2015-May-17, 06:31, said:

Unless using the Nigel scoring method, 4♥=10 everything else = 0.

Sorry, what is Nigel scoring method ? Thanks

[NickRW]

Mefisto500, on 2015-May-18, 03:28, said:

Sorry, what is Nigel scoring method ? Thanks

Not being Nigel, I can hardly claim authority. However, it appears to be roughly 10/9/8/7/6/5 etc. for the bids Nigel thinks of. Not that he is necessarily wrong in the order the bids are placed, rather that 9 for the 2nd choice, 8 for the 3rd is usually way over generous.

Anyway, 4H for me. Other things might work better, but they're quite a punt.

[PhilKing]

Mefisto500, on 2015-May-18, 03:28, said:

Sorry, what is Nigel scoring method ? Thanks

10 for the best bid, other bids are scored in relation to how well they will score on average compared to the best bid.

So if you positive expectation was about 600 for bidding 4H (since you will sometimes reach slam) and about 420 for just jumping to slam, you would about 7 out of 10 for 6♥.

[CONDROZ]

And what about 5!h ?
Should show this kind of hand , paying pre-empts ...

[dave_beer]

eagles123, on 2015-May-17, 12:59, said:

well yeah I bid 4 and guess what we're cold for 7

I posted pd's hand on BW

http://bridgewinners...g-problem-8009/

one of those things?

Thanks

Eagles

I clicked on the bridgewinners link. ♠A3-♥T832-♦A9542-♣92 looks like 5♥ to me. If there was more room, then 5♥ says bid a slam if you have 2nd round control of their suit; in this auction I think it means you can PASS even with 2nd round control if you don't like your hand.

[KurtGodel]

dave_beer, on 2015-May-18, 10:48, said:

I clicked on the bridgewinners link. ♠A3-♥T832-♦A9542-♣92 looks like 5♥ to me. If there was more room, then 5♥ says bid a slam if you have 2nd round control of their suit; in this auction I think it means you can PASS even with 2nd round control if you don't like your hand.

I doubt it, it's easy to say that when you can see all the hands. I'm pretty sure that a sim would make pass a clear winner.

[kuhchung]

Great idea to post both hands in different forums! I still have one I'm saving from months ago to post here, after the bias has cleared.

[Vampyr]

broze, on 2015-May-17, 15:23, said:

Not only this but it shows how effective *under-preempting* can be, ie. bidding to one level lower than your fit, particularly at the level where opps are bidding 4M. If South has to bid his suit at the 5 level he might well fetch a raise from North.

This is a very interesting idea; I have sometimes had vague inklings of it but have never formulated the concept clearly.

[mikestar13]

broze, on 2015-May-17, 15:23, said:

Not only this but it shows how effective *under-preempting* can be, ie. bidding to one level lower than your fit, particularly at the level where opps are bidding 4M. If South has to bid his suit at the 5 level he might well fetch a raise from North.

Used with reasonable judgement this is a very useful technique--the cheapest sacrifice against 6♥ may well be getting them to accept 480/680 in 4♥. The same concept can apply at the game level: give the a chance to play 3♥, and it will likely be cheaper than going down in 4♠ if they do so--also works wonders if your sac would have been a phantom.

[case_no_6]

I wold bid 4h. Yes,it is true you do not need much to make slam if partner has something like Axx, xxxx, AJxxx, xx or KQxx xxx, Axx, xxx, but such hands are unlikely and partner could have stronger hands where slam is bad or even doomed. If partner has enough to produce a slam and not enough to move? Well that's unlucky but you are likely to have company anyway.