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How Do You Like You Chances?

#1 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 15:45

IMPs



E leads ♣8. ♣A, ♣9, ♣2.

How do you rate your chances, having escaped a heart lead? Opponents lead 4th best from a sequence below 1098x.
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#2 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 20:01

Is it really that much work to put the dummy on top?
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#3 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 01:34

I quite like my chances. After running 6 ♣s opponents will have to discard quite a lot without knowing much information about declarer (North... :rolleyes: ). A ♠ finesse can bring our total up to 8 and if opps have discarded enough ♥s we can make a ♦ trick (or maybe even a 3rd ♠).
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#4 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 12:25

View PostFree, on 2015-February-15, 01:34, said:

I quite like my chances. After running 6 ♣s opponents will have to discard quite a lot without knowing much information about declarer (North... :rolleyes: ). A ♠ finesse can bring our total up to 8 and if opps have discarded enough ♥s we can make a ♦ trick (or maybe even a 3rd ♠).


Why did W lead the ♣8?
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2015-February-16, 13:32

View Postmasonbarge, on 2015-February-15, 12:25, said:

Why did W lead the ♣8?

That would be a lead out of turn. East lead...
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#6 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-February-18, 19:28

Chances are slim with that singleton heart K on the board. If we try to run clubs surely
the opps carding will keep them on track. IMHO I lead a low dia toward the K at trick 2 hope
hope it holds and take the spade finesse hoping to squeeze in 9 ricks that way. BTW I do not
like our chances:(
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#7 User is offline   nate_m 

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Posted 2015-February-18, 20:27

I mean if RHO has the spade guard, the diamond ace, and the QJ of hearts we are making in style. I don't like my chances but I'll play for that by running clubs.
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#8 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 00:06

Chances aren't as bad as they look. Which is to say, better than hoping for a singleton ♠10 or doubleton ♠108. E. is leading from club shortness to keep from giving a trick, so he rates likely to have honors in the other suits.

This is an actual hand from a Bot tourny. E had ♥AQJ and ♠K108x! (And the ♦A.) Nate wins a flat top.

It's an amusing hand (although it would be more amusing if it happened with someone you knew playing E).
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#9 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 02:51

View PostPhil, on 2015-February-14, 20:01, said:

Is it really that much work to put the dummy on top?

is it really that tough to inform a newcomer about custom rules in a civilized manner?
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#10 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 02:53

View Postmasonbarge, on 2015-February-19, 00:06, said:

Chances aren't as bad as they look. Which is to say, better than hoping for a singleton ♠10 or doubleton ♠108. E. is leading from club shortness to keep from giving a trick, so he rates likely to have honors in the other suits.

This is an actual hand from a Bot tourny. E had ♥AQJ and ♠K108x! (And the ♦A.) Nate wins a flat top.

It's an amusing hand (although it would be more amusing if it happened with someone you knew playing E).


If he had only ♥AQJ all lines work, he only has ♦A+♥AQJ to cash if you try to sneak a diamond trick.
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#11 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 08:16

View PostFluffy, on 2015-February-19, 02:51, said:

is it really that tough to inform a newcomer about custom rules in a civilized manner?


An "expert" with 80 recent posts is not a newcomer.
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#12 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 14:01

View PostFluffy, on 2015-February-19, 02:53, said:

If he had only ♥AQJ all lines work, he only has ♦A+♥AQJ to cash if you try to sneak a diamond trick.


Good one. And, for that matter, you could lead a heart as long as you'd ensured he didn't have a club left. Playing IMPs, a heart lead at trick two or three might be fun anyway. Assuming E has to win it, no telling what he might return.

Sadly, although I don't have a copy of the hand any longer, I'm sure I would have noticed if he only had 3 hearts.
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