[kgr]

IMP pairs

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3C=invite with 6c♣

LHO leads ♠3 - 3th or 5th.
♠3-4-J-K

What is the best plan to play this 3NT? (Opps are good, but can make mistakes!).

[gszes]

since it seems pretty obvious for the defense to duck 1 diamond and 1 heart trying to
set up our hand seems doomed to fail while we have a 75% shot any time we are due 5 clubs
(lho needing 1 red ace). When those comparative odds are presented it sees totally logical
to start with the club 10 and follow with another club finesse (intending to win any
spade return in hand and lead toward both of dummy's red jacks starting with hearts).

[whereagles]

anything can work, or not
I'd try and slip a diamond past LHO's would-be ace. If it holds, start the hearts. If not, try clubs.

[rhm]

gszes, on 2014-August-31, 09:43, said:

since it seems pretty obvious for the defense to duck 1 diamond and 1 heart trying to
set up our hand seems doomed to fail while we have a 75% shot any time we are due 5 clubs
(lho needing 1 red ace). When those comparative odds are presented it sees totally logical
to start with the club 10 and follow with another club finesse (intending to win any
spade return in hand and lead toward both of dummy's red jacks starting with hearts).

Your chances for 5 club tricks are 37%
so 75% of this would mean less than 30%
I am not claiming playing on clubs is wrong, but it does not look impressive

Rainer Herrmann

[PhilKing]

Well I know how I would start - I would play a heat to the jack. If that is taken, my problems are usually over.

Let's assume the jack holds. I should know who has the ace, which may be important later on. Anyway, I'm playing the ♦J next. If righty has the ace, the urge to win and "clear" spades may be too much to resist after all, West's spades could be better.

And that's why it's right to play the ♥4 to the jack to make it appear West is Smith Petering for the lead.

I'm not entirely out if the woods if they take the ace, but I am a strong racing favourite.

[gszes]

rhm, on 2014-September-02, 04:23, said:

Your chances for 5 club tricks are 37%
so 75% of this would mean less than 30%
I am not claiming playing on clubs is wrong, but it does not look impressive

Rainer Herrmann

"lies damn lies and statistics" hehe i didnt say it was pretty I just said
roughly 30% was better looking than the zero probability for other LOP:))))

[PhilKing]

gszes, on 2014-September-02, 08:25, said:

"lies damn lies and statistics" hehe i didnt say it was pretty I just said
roughly 30% was better looking than the zero probability for other LOP:))))

After a ♥ to the jack (ducked), ♦J (ducked), we clear ♥s. Assuming the defence plays a second ♠, we cash hearts and play a club up.

I may be being a bit thick, but I would assess our chances as better than 0% at this point and perhaps as high as 100, depending on who we think has the red aces.

[gszes]

PhilKing, on 2014-September-03, 18:19, said:

After a ♥ to the jack (ducked), ♦J (ducked), we clear ♥s. Assuming the defence plays a second ♠, we cash hearts and play a club up.

I may be being a bit thick, but I would assess our chances as better than 0% at this point and perhaps as high as 100, depending on who we think has the red aces.

I like the idea but it may not be possible since in order to lead toward both jacks one must come back to hand
and that can get transportation messed up

[kgr]

RHO had both Red aces and ♣Q.
I started with a ♥ to the J and this was taken the 1st round. RHO hoped that his partner had ♠Q.
I took the ♠ return and played ♦ to the J. Also taken directly by RHO who returned ♥ now.
As it was now clear that LHO had ♣A, I made 3NT+1.
...The defense was bad (opps were good players but missed here), so I wondered if my play was best.
(I think that playing on clubs could also work because LHO had no entry anymore after the spades are cleared).

[PhilKing]

gszes, on 2014-September-03, 20:36, said:

I like the idea but it may not be possible since in order to lead toward both jacks one must come back to hand
and that can get transportation messed up

You lead the diamond jack from table, then revert to hearts. Obviously, we now get the clubs right, since East is a passed hand.

kgr, on 2014-September-04, 01:39, said:

RHO had both Red aces and ♣Q.
I started with a ♥ to the J

Which heart did you play from hand?

[kgr]

PhilKing, on 2014-September-04, 02:18, said:

Which heart did you play from hand?

I did lead ♥2...It is not clear for me how it matters if you play the 2 or the 4?

[PhilKing]

kgr, on 2014-September-04, 02:47, said:

I did lead ♥2...It is not clear for me how it matters if you play the 2 or the 4?

Technically, it makes no difference - since the 3 is in dummy, the 4 and 2 are equals.

In reality, the defence will assume you don't play your spot cards carefully, so if the 2 is missing, there is a greater chance partner has petered to say he liked his lead.

Had our pips been the 2 and 5, then leading the 5 becomes mandatory.