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The Best Lead

Poll: The Best Lead (28 member(s) have cast votes)

1. Lead

  1. Spade (3 votes [10.71%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.71%

  2. Heart (4 votes [14.29%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 14.29%

  3. Diamond (19 votes [67.86%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 67.86%

  4. Club (2 votes [7.14%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.14%

2. Lead

  1. Spade (3 votes [10.71%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.71%

  2. Heart (3 votes [10.71%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.71%

  3. Diamond (19 votes [67.86%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 67.86%

  4. Club (3 votes [10.71%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.71%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   lesh 

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Posted 2014-August-02, 03:52




2. What if 1NT - 2♣ 2♠ - 4♠. Would you change your lead?
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#2 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-August-02, 04:12

Diamond rates to be the statistical winner, by a mile and regardless of auction.
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#3 User is offline   yunling 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 04:01

♦ in either auction, regardless of NT range.
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#4 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 04:34

I think it's close between ♦ and ♠, but the auction doesn't really change anything.
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#5 User is offline   Trump Echo 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 07:36

♦8
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#6 User is offline   lrussell 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 10:06

DealMaster Pro with Deep Finesse analysis shows diamond best in all cases
Trump lead is next best.

Best lead IMP (beat contract)
Card (1) (2)
SJ 30.4% 10.2%
S2 30.0% 10.0%
HK 21.6% 6.2%
HT 28.6% 8.2%
H2 30.6% 9.4%
D8 38.8% 12.6%
CK 18.2% 3.8%
CJ 19.0% 4.4%
C6 20.4% 4.4%

Best lead MP (most tricks)
Card (1) (2)
SJ 68.6% 80.0%
S2 68.6% 79.2%
HK 48.6% 49.6%
HT 60.0% 60.0%
H2 63.0% 63.4%
D8 85.0% 89.2%
CK 44.2% 47.8%
CJ 47.6% 47.3%
C6 48.8% 48.6%
Lorne Russell
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#7 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 12:54

why such large difference in imp figures from case 1 to 2?
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#8 User is offline   lrussell 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 13:13

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-August-03, 12:54, said:

why such large difference in imp figures from case 1 to 2?


Case 1 was an invitational auction. I gave opener 16-17 and responder 8-9.

Case 2 responder was strong enough to force game. I gave opener 15-17 and responder 10-14.
Lorne Russell
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#9 User is offline   jdgalt 

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Posted 2014-August-03, 13:25

The diamond is a passive lead. I like it in the original auction, where responder was tentative and game is likely borderline. In auction 2 responder is more sure of himself, so I prefer an attacking lead, low from the KH.
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#10 User is offline   bluechip10 

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Posted 2014-August-04, 15:07

Mom always said to lead the unbid major. So deuce of hearts is good enough for me. I can't remember how many times leading from a worthless doubleton gives up a trick or two or three.
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-August-04, 19:34

Well, that was before the age of computer simulations. These days we know that doubleton leads are significantly better than king underleads.
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#12 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2014-August-05, 01:03

Mom isn't always right :P
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-August-05, 02:26

women are always right
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#14 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2014-August-05, 11:09

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-August-05, 02:26, said:

women are always right

Oh dear... :rolleyes:
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#15 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2014-August-05, 11:51

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-August-04, 19:34, said:

Well, that was before the age of computer simulations. These days we know that doubleton leads are significantly better than king underleads.


I highly doubt computer simulations are what stopped good players from leading from kings into 1N openers on invitational auctions.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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#16 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2014-August-05, 12:04

View PostPhantomSac, on 2014-August-05, 11:51, said:

I highly doubt computer simulations are what stopped good players from leading from kings into 1N openers on invitational auctions.

Oh you mean that the fact that some good players play this game for a living was a factor as well? :rolleyes:
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