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You have a good hand:
♠AKQ43 ♥AK ♦KQ ♣KQJ5
You find partner with 8+ HCP & 6 SPs (3-2-1), with
♠ x ♥xxxx ♦Axxxx ♣Axx
Jacks unknown, no more DCB. Take your time.
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Place the contract
#1
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Posted 2014-June-22, 20:27
#2
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Posted 2014-June-22, 21:29
7♣?
#3
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Posted 2014-June-23, 06:27
indeed. 7♣ FTW!!!
#4
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Posted 2014-June-23, 08:20
It was IMPS by the way.
I bid 7♣ with little conviction.
A case can be made for 7NT and 6NT.
7♣ will fail to 5-1 clubs, chopping you back to 84%.
5-2 spades is no fun either. Presumably you win ♥A, ♠A, ruff, then draw trumps.
If partner lacks ♦J, you need an unlikely squeeze.
7NT depends on jacks. ♠J would be nice, ♥J less so, needing ♥Q to fall. Very small extra chances plus some triples I guess.
♦J & 10 decide matters.
I roughly estimated 35% ♦J only for 84%, 35% ♦10 only for 50%, 10%♦JT for 100%, 30% neither for 36%.
Add them up for around 67%, plus other stray jacks and squeeze chances.
Seems pretty close to me, both marginal grands so 6NT was merit.
Take your time ...
I bid 7♣ with little conviction.
A case can be made for 7NT and 6NT.
7♣ will fail to 5-1 clubs, chopping you back to 84%.
5-2 spades is no fun either. Presumably you win ♥A, ♠A, ruff, then draw trumps.
If partner lacks ♦J, you need an unlikely squeeze.
7NT depends on jacks. ♠J would be nice, ♥J less so, needing ♥Q to fall. Very small extra chances plus some triples I guess.
♦J & 10 decide matters.
I roughly estimated 35% ♦J only for 84%, 35% ♦10 only for 50%, 10%♦JT for 100%, 30% neither for 36%.
Add them up for around 67%, plus other stray jacks and squeeze chances.
Seems pretty close to me, both marginal grands so 6NT was merit.
Take your time ...
#5
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Posted 2014-June-23, 08:37
7♣ is improved to clubs not 5-1 by several things, 10♣ (allows you to ruff 2 spades), J♠, J♦. I think I'd vote for that, even 9♣ improves things as now you can ruff a second spade unless spades are 5-2 the wrong way AND that hand has 10♣.
#6
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Posted 2014-June-23, 08:58
Looking at this again, you probably want to bid 7NT.
Reason: in an average+ field the North player will undoubtedly find about South's aces and will figure out "we're 1 trick away.. if it's not there.. what the heck, I'll think of something during the play. go for the gold! 7NT"
Reason: in an average+ field the North player will undoubtedly find about South's aces and will figure out "we're 1 trick away.. if it's not there.. what the heck, I'll think of something during the play. go for the gold! 7NT"
#7
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Posted 2014-June-25, 05:46
My analysis:
7♣:
You need clubs 4-2 or 3-3
If spades do not break you might make if long spades and diamonds are in the same hand. You can not test diamonds.
7NT looks as good.
You make when diamonds are 3-3 or long diamond and spades are in the same hand.
7NT is better if there is a useful jack in dummy.
However, there is a snag: After a spade lead squeeze chances drop in either case.
Dummy has 4 unknown diamonds of ten. Therefor chances for the ♦J in dummy are 40% and in one eighth of the deals dummy will have the ♠J raising your chances finding at least one of these jacks in dummy to 46.5%
However even the ♦T helps creating additional squeeze chances as does the ♥J
Look for example at the following deal:
7NT is down, but 7♣ makes on a red suit squeeze.
I ran a simulation with 1000 deals and was quite surprised:
7♣ made double dummy on 868 deals or 87% of the time.
7NT made on 738 deals or 74% of the time.
Of course you will not always make when the contract makes double dummy, particularly not 7♣, but it looks like 7♣ is worth bidding and maybe 7NT is even superior at matchpoints.
Rainer Herrmann
7♣:
You need clubs 4-2 or 3-3
If spades do not break you might make if long spades and diamonds are in the same hand. You can not test diamonds.
7NT looks as good.
You make when diamonds are 3-3 or long diamond and spades are in the same hand.
7NT is better if there is a useful jack in dummy.
However, there is a snag: After a spade lead squeeze chances drop in either case.
Dummy has 4 unknown diamonds of ten. Therefor chances for the ♦J in dummy are 40% and in one eighth of the deals dummy will have the ♠J raising your chances finding at least one of these jacks in dummy to 46.5%
However even the ♦T helps creating additional squeeze chances as does the ♥J
Look for example at the following deal:
7NT is down, but 7♣ makes on a red suit squeeze.
I ran a simulation with 1000 deals and was quite surprised:
7♣ made double dummy on 868 deals or 87% of the time.
7NT made on 738 deals or 74% of the time.
Of course you will not always make when the contract makes double dummy, particularly not 7♣, but it looks like 7♣ is worth bidding and maybe 7NT is even superior at matchpoints.
Rainer Herrmann
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