[mike777]

Here is an interesting paper by University of Maryland researchers Safa Motesharrei and Eugenia Kalnay, and University of Minnesota’s Jorge Rivas: Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies

"HANDY
As indicated above, Human And Nature DYnamics (HANDY) was originally built based on the
predator-prey model. We can think of the human population as the \predator", while nature
(the natural resources of the surrounding environment) can be taken as the \prey", depleted by
humans."

Again this makes the distinction between man and nature. But man is fully part of nature and the surrounding environment, not separate.

It also seems to ignore the discussion that indeed for mankind to survive it may need to move out into the universe. to use the resources of the universe not just planet earth.
----------------

"Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past ve thousand years,
and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic
regression. Although many dierent causes have been oered to explain individual collapses, it
is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt to build a
simple mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction between population
and natural resources. It allows for the two features that seem to appear across societies that have
collapsed: the stretching of resources due to strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity, and
the division of society into Elites (rich) and Commoners (poor)."

Not sure how or if they factored in innovation as a resource.

[y66]

From the 2 Terps & a Gopher paper:

Quote

Finally, scenario 5.2.5, which is a replication of 5.2.4 with a much higher ratio of Non-Workers to Workers, shows that a collapse in an equitable society could be avoided by reducing the average depletion per capita. We note that this scenario could also represent a situation where, rather than having paid Non-Workers, the workload per capita is reduced, with the whole population working fewer days a week. Such a work-sharing policy has been successfully implemented in Germany over the past few years for reducing unemployment

That work-sharing policy for adjusting employment during downturns vs massive layoffs just makes too much sense.

As does organizing economies around "beehives" of small and medium business establishments (99% of all German business establishments have fewer than 500 workers) vs huge corporations that may be optimally efficient until they collapse.

[kenberg]

mike777, on 2014-March-21, 14:22, said:

Here is an interesting paper by University of Maryland researchers Safa Motesharrei and Eugenia Kalnay, and University of Minnesota’s Jorge Rivas: Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies

"HANDY
As indicated above, Human And Nature DYnamics (HANDY) was originally built based on the
predator-prey model. We can think of the human population as the \predator", while nature
(the natural resources of the surrounding environment) can be taken as the \prey", depleted by
humans."

Again this makes the distinction between man and nature. But man is fully part of nature and the surrounding environment, not separate.

It also seems to ignore the discussion that indeed for mankind to survive it may need to move out into the universe. to use the resources of the universe not just planet earth.
----------------

"Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past ve thousand years,
and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic
regression. Although many dierent causes have been oered to explain individual collapses, it
is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt to build a
simple mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction between population
and natural resources. It allows for the two features that seem to appear across societies that have
collapsed: the stretching of resources due to strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity, and
the division of society into Elites (rich) and Commoners (poor)."

Not sure how or if they factored in innovation as a resource.

There are other possibilities for assigning the roles of predator and prey

But I jest. Sort of.

[mike777]

kenberg, on 2014-March-21, 15:27, said:

There are other possibilities for assigning the roles of predator and prey

But I jest. Sort of.

I agree. I sort of wonder why they made the choices they did. Mankind is fully predator and fully prey. Many other parts of nature view mankind as prey.

Also I did not see how they factored in innovation. In any rate a failure of innovation or the growth of innovation could easily lead to a collapse. A failure to use resources off planet could easily lead to a collapse.

[kenberg]

mike777, on 2014-March-21, 16:49, said:

I agree. I sort of wonder why they made the choices they did. Mankind is fully predator and fully prey. Many other parts of nature view mankind as prey.

Also I did not see how they factored in innovation. In any rate a failure of innovation or the growth of innovation could easily lead to a collapse. A failure to use resources off planet could easily lead to a collapse.

I was jesting because "predator" and "prey" are mathematical terms carrying no connotation of good or bad. The predator population grows by consuming the prey, the prey population dies out, this causes problems for the predator. The prey might be a cute bunny or an ugly snake. Or the environment.

I suspect the role of innovation in the model is both difficult and important, and involves various issues of model stability. The idea there is that if you kick the model a bit do the predictions of the model still hold roughly the same, or do they change radically. No doubt it depends on the nature and magnitude of the kick, but still it's an issue.

Continuing this sidebar on Maryland (and collaborators) mathematics, you might (well, possibly anyway) find this of interest:
http://www.genetics-...ates/?a=121&z=1 If you like pine trees.

Yorke, cited in the above paper, and Kalnay, cited in the earlier one, are part of a large and somewhat shifting group that has often brought mathematics to bear on various real world issues.

Close of commercial we now return to our regularly scheduled broadcast..

[PassedOut]

kenberg, on 2014-March-22, 07:59, said:

Continuing this sidebar on Maryland (and collaborators) mathematics, you might (well, possibly anyway) find this of interest:
http://www.genetics-...ates/?a=121&z=1 If you like pine trees.

I had seen that, but had missed the Maryland connection. I do like pine trees (I see some snow-covered branches right now from my window) and the piece was indeed interesting.

[kenberg]

The sun is shining today in Maryland. There is some suggestion of snow for next week. Another connection with Minnesota, perhaps. Actully they, and I imagine you up in MI, had a pretty brutal winter so I won't moan loudly down here.

[Winstonm]

mike777, on 2014-March-21, 14:22, said:

Here is an interesting paper by University of Maryland researchers Safa Motesharrei and Eugenia Kalnay, and University of Minnesota’s Jorge Rivas: Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies

"HANDY
As indicated above, Human And Nature DYnamics (HANDY) was originally built based on the
predator-prey model. We can think of the human population as the \predator", while nature
(the natural resources of the surrounding environment) can be taken as the \prey", depleted by
humans."

Again this makes the distinction between man and nature. But man is fully part of nature and the surrounding environment, not separate.

It also seems to ignore the discussion that indeed for mankind to survive it may need to move out into the universe. to use the resources of the universe not just planet earth.
----------------

"Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past ve thousand years,
and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic
regression. Although many dierent causes have been oered to explain individual collapses, it
is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt to build a
simple mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction between population
and natural resources. It allows for the two features that seem to appear across societies that have
collapsed: the stretching of resources due to strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity, and
the division of society into Elites (rich) and Commoners (poor)."

Not sure how or if they factored in innovation as a resource.

Off-topic but I keep wondering why innovation, as, to me, anyway, you present it, is only compatible with free market capitalism. If memory serves, the U.S.S.R. was first into space. Besides that anomaly, it also seems that innovation has not been driven by a desire for profit but for a search for answers by an interested mind.

Why can't governments and markets work together?

[Winstonm]

y66, on 2014-March-21, 14:25, said:

From the 2 Terps & a Gopher paper:


That work-sharing policy for adjusting employment during downturns vs massive layoffs just makes too much sense.

As does organizing economies around "beehives" of small and medium business establishments (99% of all German business establishments have fewer than 500 workers) vs huge corporations that may be optimally efficient until they collapse.

Isn't it interesting that the Godfather of Supply Side, Adam Smith, anticipated just such beehives of local competition as the basis for his "invisible hand"?

[kenberg]

Winstonm, on 2014-March-22, 13:57, said:

Off-topic but I keep wondering why innovation, as, to me, anyway, you present it, is only compatible with free market capitalism. If memory serves, the U.S.S.R. was first into space. Besides that anomaly, it also seems that innovation has not been driven by a desire for profit but for a search for answers by an interested mind.

Why can't governments and markets work together?

TED celbrated its 30th anniversary with, what else, a bunch of talks. These were given in Vancouver but last Tuesday's talks were simulcast and I attended. The program was highly varied and included unscheduled speakers. One of these was Edward Snowden, another was an impromptu talk by a physicist in the audience about the big bang news, but the one relevant to this post was a talk by a woman from Shanghai about efforts to control carbon emissions and other environmental problems in China. She listed several advantages that China had, one of them being that you don't have to convince the public of the wisdom of an idea, you only have to convince the Central Party. She has a point, I guess, perhaps, but I think I'll stick with our way.

The array of talks, taken as a whole and definitely including hers, was extremely interesting.

[PassedOut]

kenberg, on 2014-March-22, 12:21, said:

The sun is shining today in Maryland. There is some suggestion of snow for next week. Another connection with Minnesota, perhaps. Actully they, and I imagine you up in MI, had a pretty brutal winter so I won't moan loudly down here.

The sun is shining here too, but we're having a cold March: 3 degrees F tonight, 0 degrees tomorrow night. A neighbor and I were chatting by the mailbox and he reminded me that two years ago we had 80 degrees on St. Patrick's Day. I reminded him that on May 9 last year we had snowfall that completely buried our mailbox. (Of course we take this all as a sign of our strength -- both of body and character.)

[mike777]

Ken have you heard anything about this? Some place I think called Harbor Point?


Progressive Trickle-Down in Maryland

Baltimore poured $300 million into a hotel that has recorded more than $50 million in operating losses.


By Steve H. Hanke And Stephen J.K. Walters


March 21, 2014 7:17 p.m. ET

[kenberg]

mike777, on 2014-March-22, 18:04, said:

Ken have you heard anything about this? Some place I think called Harbor Point?


Progressive Trickle-Down in Maryland

Baltimore poured $300 million into a hotel that has recorded more than $50 million in operating losses.


By Steve H. Hanke And Stephen J.K. Walters


March 21, 2014 7:17 p.m. ET

I did not see specifically Harbor Point in the article but perhaps Harbor Place? The article refers to a variety of examples. I am pretty sure that the daughter of a friend was working for a while at The Greene Turtle (near Towson, not at Harbor Place).. The winter Math Meetings were at the Convention Center at the Harbor Place. Harbor Place (the usual array of shops, hotels with a science museum and an aquarium thrown in) appears to be very successful. The development goes back a ways, maybe to the 80s or even the late 70s. I can't tell you with any certainty how the economics worked out, but we ate well while we were there and lots of other seemed to be doing the same. I think it's a success.

[mike777]

1) Hilton Baltimore, city invested 300M 50M in operating loses
2)Balt, State Center district 1.5 billion
3)green turtle in Towson
4) tax breaks of 200M in some place called harbor point on waterfront in Baltimore
5) 66,000 residents and 5.5Billion in taxable income left MAryland 2000-10.
----

I note my town gave tax breaks and other moneys to Chiquita...the banana guys to move here. 2 years later they are moving to Ireland.

NASCAR Museum has been a disaster, more city money.

80M more city money to the local NFL team....for stadium improvements...crazy.

[kenberg]

Mike, what you say about Baltimore and other places is very relevant to the general theme of this thread. In Harbor place, as a whole, appears to be thriving. Otoh, as we walked around we were often approached, non-threatenly but still, by people asking for money. If 500K makes the waterfront economically viable, I don't mind. It's less then ten cents per Marylander, and the gov certainly spends money in less effective ways. But there were all these people asking for money. I gather that for some it's a fairly lucrative profession if they go about it right, but....

[kenberg]

A column in the Washington Post today has a theme about the changed nature of tings for the young.

http://www.washingto...0f19_story.html

The author is speaking of the pressure to get her tenth grader onto the college admissions process.

I particularly liked:

Quote

So my son and I found ourselves sitting in the well-appointed office of a man asking what my son wanted to do with his life. "I have no idea," my son sighed, in the same tone I used when I was that age to answer annoying aunts. How could anyone know? Albert Einstein had no idea he would one day become Albert Einstein.

Exactly. In March of my hs sophomore year I had just gotten my driver's license, I was saving to buy a car. I was dating Judy, my second girlfriend. I was delivering papers and setting pins in a bowling alley. What did I want to do with my life???????? A long term plan was choosing a movie to see the coming weekend.

Maybe a 15 year old can be coached to answer questions about what he wants to do with his life. We all knew stock answers to stock questions and as long as someone told us the answer we could memorize it. I had just recently decided that earning a living racing cars might not be practical. I suppose that could be seen as an encouraging sign.

It was once fun to be young.

I plan to devote my life to the cause of world peace. Next question?

[mike777]

kenberg, on 2014-March-23, 05:31, said:

Mike, what you say about Baltimore and other places is very relevant to the general theme of this thread. In Harbor place, as a whole, appears to be thriving. Otoh, as we walked around we were often approached, non-threatenly but still, by people asking for money. If 500K makes the waterfront economically viable, I don't mind. It's less then ten cents per Marylander, and the gov certainly spends money in less effective ways. But there were all these people asking for money. I gather that for some it's a fairly lucrative profession if they go about it right, but....

What is Harbor Point?
Harbor Point is a new approximately 3-million square-foot master-planned mixed-use community being built on a 27-acre waterfront site. Harbor Point will include new public infrastructure including public parks and community open space, a public promenade, and public roads and utilities to complement privately financed buildings and privately financed public parking. Harbor Point will be built in phases over approximately 12 years. Total project costs will be approximately $920 Million of private investment, supplemented by approximately $106.9 Million of TIF bonds to finance the public infrastructure that does not presently exist at Harbor Point. Utilizing TIF to finance this infrastructure is a smart way for the City to avoid using City, State, and Federal revenues to pay for these improvements, thereby preserving these revenues for other neighborhood improvements such as schools, parks, and recreation centers. The total project will cost over $1 Billion.
http://www.baltimore...tfact-sheet.pdf

I think Harbor place and harbor point are two different places. I think the harbor point development is much newer, less established.

We have a thing called Eastland Mall here. It was the first big Mall a few decades ago. Then when it failed the city bought the Mall and tore it down. It is now an empty hole in the ground. Some guy wants millions to build a Movie studio and make pictures, geez....
He may get it.

[y66]

From Krugman's blog today:

Quote

The Crime of 2010

The most important paper at the Brookings Panel was probably Krueger et al on the long-term unemployed, which basically confirmed what we’re learning from a number of sources: it’s really hard to get employers to look at people who have been out of work for an extended period, so any sustained increase in long-term unemployment tends to become permanent. The best way to avoid this outcome, then, is to avoid prolonged periods of high unemployment.

So let me make the obvious point, just in case anyone missed it: the “pivot” of 2010 — when all the Very Serious People decided that the danger from debt trumped any and all concern for job creation — was an utter disaster, economic and human. It was even a disaster in fiscal terms, because a permanently depressed economy will cost far more in revenue than was saved by slashing the deficit by a few percent of GDP in the short term.

Now, you might think that this post should be titled The Mistake of 2010 but that would only be appropriate if it were truly an honest error. It wasn't. Some of the austerians were self-consciously exploiting deficit panic to promote a conservative agenda; some were slipping into deficit-scolding rather than dealing with our actual problems because it felt comfortable; some were just going along for the ride, saying what everyone else was saying. Hardly anyone in the deficit-scold camp engaged in hard thinking and careful assessment of the evidence.

And millions of people will still be paying the price for that casual irresponsibility for many years to come.

[blackshoe]

mike777, on 2014-March-23, 13:54, said:

We have a thing called Eastland Mall here. It was the first big Mall a few decades ago. Then when it failed the city bought the Mall and tore it down. It is now an empty hole in the ground. Some guy wants millions to build a Movie studio and make pictures, geez....
He may get it.

Sounds like Medley Centre here in the Rochester area. Although it's been hanging on by a thread for nearly twenty years, and hasn't been torn down yet.

[mike777]

blackshoe, on 2014-March-23, 18:46, said:

Sounds like Medley Centre here in the Rochester area. Although it's been hanging on by a thread for nearly twenty years, and hasn't been torn down yet.

Yes very much.


We hate creative destruction.

We strive so very hard to preserve the status quo, entrenched interests.

Wrigley field and the near surrounding area.
It becomes sacred, holy.
https://images.searc...a=wrigley+field