Posted 2013-April-02, 09:22
Hanoi's line, put in while I was typing this, seems better.
My thought was:
I think there is a way, and maybe it has better chances. Assume an opening club lead. We will play for 3-2 hearts, so we cash the top hearts. If this holds, we cash the diamond ace and lead another heart. If rho follows then we need spades to be 3-2 so we ruff high and hope. But suppose it is rho who shows out. Ruff low, cash the high diamonds throwing clubs. If the diamonds stand up, we are probably making this. Ace of clubs, ruff a club low, ruff a hearts high back to hand, ruff a club high, cash dummy's remaining high trump. One of your small trumps ruffed a heart, one of them just went under dummy's high heart, your hand is down to two high trump.
Is this better? I am not sure. Early cashing of the top hearts is not dangerous if the original line of play needs hearts to be 3-2 anyway. After that hurdle is past, the problem is how much risk to tolerate to cope with the 4-1 spades. When the third heart was led from dummy, rho could pitch one diamond and then, perhaps, ruff the third round of diamonds. That requires diamonds to be 6-3 or worse, and for rho to be short in hearts and short in diamonds. There are other things that could go wrong, but, for example, a club overruff seems unlikely if the diamond plays survive. Probably this line of play, with an option after the third heart is played from dummy, gives a slightly better chance than a line that totally depends on 3-2 in both majors.
Ken