[kfay]

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Lead is a small ♣ to the king. You win the ace.

[gszes]

kfay, on 2013-March-26, 14:24, said:

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Lead is a small ♣ to the king. You win the ace.

in many ways it seems to be a simple hand since our options
are so limited. we need 4d 3s 2c not much hope for anything else.

trick 2 spade to K low dia (cheering hard for Kx or K with rho)
assuming dia K drops single or double spade to A (if the Q has
not appeard play one more spade hoping for 33 spades and use the
dia J as entry to 3rd spade trick

Lets face it we overbid.

[MrAce]

gszes, on 2013-March-26, 15:26, said:

in many ways it seems to be a simple hand since our options
are so limited. we need 4d 3s 2c not much hope for anything else.

trick 2 spade to K low dia (cheering hard for Kx or K with rho)
assuming dia K drops single or double spade to A (if the Q has
not appeard play one more spade hoping for 33 spades and use the
dia J as entry to 3rd spade trick

Lets face it we overbid.

By playing low diamond and then cashing A, you are trading Kxx or Kxxx or Kxxxx dia onside for Qx spades. I think (i may be wrong) Qx spades odds are about %16 while Kxx Kxxx Kxxxx dia on odds are about % 33 and K or Kx dia on is about %15 (correct me if i am wrong, i am not good at this)

I would play it like this

- Play a small spade from hand and duck
-Take club return and play a spade to A or K, if Q drops play for K or Kx dia, if not play dia J from dummy.

The tricky part about this line will depend on your opps. Eventhough it is hard for defenders to see the situation, it is not hard at all to play ♠Q from any Qxx holding to convince you that the suit doesn't break. Something you will have to decide whether your opps are capable of doing this or not. But basically, if they d o not drop ♠ Q, at least you will know not to play for K or Kx ♦ onside because K or Kx ♦ gives you no extra chance if there is no Qx ♠, you would have to play for 3-3 ♠, and would not go down for nothing when RHO holds Kxx Kxxx Kxxxx ♦

EDIT after reading Karlson : As Karlson explained below, i also made the mistake to look at it in a vacuum. Kxxxx ♦ is fantasy, Kxxx ♦ is possible but i admit, as he said, due to auction it is unlikely.

[cnszsun]

I think our basic chance is diamond K onside and spades 3-3, combining with extra chance when someone holding spades Qx.
So, I will play like this:
Small spade to Ace, play small diamond to 9,
If rho dropped diamond King, I can play spade King and duck a spade;
If diamond K did not appear, I play small spade and duck unless lho played Q.

[han]

line A: cross in spades, finesse in diamonds, cross in spades, finesse in diamonds, play the spade jack.
line B: cross in spades, finesse in diamonds, duck a spade unless diamond king or spade queen appeared.

Line A beats line B when RHO has Qx of spades (8%) and RHO has Kxx or Kx of diamonds (34%).
Line B beats line A when spades are 3-3 (35.5%) and RHO has Kxxx of diamonds (12.5%).

Line B wins easily. Actually line B may be even better because if RHO wins the second spade with the queen you might still decide to play for Qx with Kx of diamonds onside.

I did not consider the lines of gszes, which I did not understand, or MrAce's, which is similar to cnszsun's line B but worse.

[billw55]

How about spade to ace, small spade toward jack? This gains versus ♠Qxxx with RHO but gives up on ♦Kxxx. Any merit to this?

[karlson]

han, on 2013-March-27, 07:18, said:

line A: cross in spades, finesse in diamonds, cross in spades, finesse in diamonds, play the spade jack.
line B: cross in spades, finesse in diamonds, duck a spade unless diamond king or spade queen appeared.

Line A beats line B when RHO has Qx of spades (8%) and RHO has Kxx or Kx of diamonds (34%).
Line B beats line A when spades are 3-3 (35.5%) and RHO has Kxxx of diamonds (12.5%).

Line B wins easily. Actually line B may be even better because if RHO wins the second spade with the queen you might still decide to play for Qx with Kx of diamonds onside.

I did not consider the lines of gszes, which I did not understand, or MrAce's, which is similar to cnszsun's line B but worse.

I don't think that we should calculate the distribution in a vacuum given the auction. Righty opened 1♣ (so he's usually not 4-4 in the minors), has at least two spades for us to have a chance, and lefty didn't bid 1♥ over 1♦. I think the odds of righty having 4 diamonds are much less than 12.5%. If he has three spades (which is what line B needs) then the odds are close to zero I think.

[MrAce]

billw55, on 2013-March-27, 07:28, said:

How about spade to ace, small spade toward jack? This gains versus ♠Qxxx with RHO but gives up on ♦Kxxx. Any merit to this?

No

Assume RHO took his ♠Q and played another club ( or another spade ), how are you planning to make even if Kx or Kxx diamonds onside ? Your spade J is good but you can not cash it seperately since you do not have an entry to dummy to take ♦ finesse. You will have to fall back to 3-3 spades.

[han]

karlson, on 2013-March-27, 08:55, said:

I don't think that we should calculate the distribution in a vacuum given the auction. Righty opened 1♣ (so he's usually not 4-4 in the minors), has at least two spades for us to have a chance, and lefty didn't bid 1♥ over 1♦. I think the odds of righty having 4 diamonds are much less than 12.5%. If he has three spades (which is what line B needs) then the odds are close to zero I think.

Here people open 1C with 4-4 in the minors so the analysis would be different, but you are right that I did not consider the auction.