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Hand fro London Year End Swiss Teams Who is most likely to prevail in an expert game?

#1 User is offline   Wackojack 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 06:45

West leads Q clubs


On the face of it, it looks like the Q lead has given the contract. How should declarer play? And would the defence prevail?

I was given a chance but failed
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#2 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 07:48

It looks cold off to me. East ducks the first two hearts and wins the next, as West discards a count-showing club. Now East plays back a club, and can ruff the club winner with his remaining small trump.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#3 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 07:57

If you try to draw trumps, East can wait till the third round before winning, and then return a club. Now he can ruff a club if you play one and you are cut off from the remaining club trick.

If you return a club immediately and finesse, you can play a third club which East will have to ruff low (else you'll discard a losing spade), and now he has the same number of trumps as dummy. You will have to have ruffed it high to ensure that your T9 of trumps guarantee an entry. However, now if East wins the first time you attempt to get to dummy with the T9, he can return a diamond to West, who can play another club for East to ruff to kill the trick in dummy.

What about if you play a top diamond immediately and knock out the ace? That seems to get rid of West's entry, so that you can proceed as above without them being able to kill your club trick.

Of course all of this pre-supposes you've worked out the layout, and I've no idea if this line figures to be with the odds.
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#4 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 08:04

We (i.e. my partner) went 1 off as well on the same lead. I think you need a spade lead to allow this one to make.
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#5 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 08:22

View Postgordontd, on 2013-January-02, 07:57, said:

If you try to draw trumps, East can wait till the third round before winning, and then return a club. Now he can ruff a club if you play one and you are cut off from the remaining club trick.

If you return a club immediately and finesse, you can play a third club which East will have to ruff low (else you'll discard a losing spade), and now he has the same number of trumps as dummy. You will have to have ruffed it high to ensure that your T9 of trumps guarantee an entry. However, now if East wins the first time you attempt to get to dummy with the T9, he can return a diamond to West, who can play another club for East to ruff to kill the trick in dummy.

What about if you play a top diamond immediately and knock out the ace? That seems to get rid of West's entry, so that you can proceed as above without them being able to kill your club trick.

Of course all of this pre-supposes you've worked out the layout, and I've no idea if this line figures to be with the odds.

This analysis seems to assume that dummy has three club winners, but he has only two. Once we ruff K, there's no longer any threat from dummy.

If declarer does play diamonds at trick two, the defenders have to take a bit of care. Suppose that that West wins and plays back a diamond. Declarer plays K, 10, K ruffed and overruffed, K, heart to East's bare ace, endplaying him. The solution is for West to play a club himself after winning A. Now East can win the second heart and play a third one.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#6 User is offline   Wackojack 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 11:25

View Postgnasher, on 2013-January-02, 08:22, said:

This analysis seems to assume that dummy has three club winners, but he has only two. Once we ruff K, there's no longer any threat from dummy.

If declarer does play diamonds at trick two, the defenders have to take a bit of care. Suppose that that West wins and plays back a diamond. Declarer plays K, 10, K ruffed and overruffed, K, heart to East's bare ace, endplaying him. The solution is for West to play a club himself after winning A. Now East can win the second heart and play a third one.

Yes double dummy it is not makeable. And I suppose that it is not asking too much of east to return a club after winning with the ace of hearts.

At the table east returned 10 and west took my king with the ace and returned a diamond. I mistakely thought I could combine my chances of making by playing for 3-3 in diamonds OR A onside. This was not to be when clubs split 5-2. Could I foresee that I now have to commit to playing for diamonds to be 3-3?
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#7 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 12:32

View PostWackojack, on 2013-January-02, 11:25, said:

At the table east returned 10 and west took my king with the ace and returned a diamond. I mistakely thought I could combine my chances of making by playing for 3-3 in diamonds OR A onside. This was not to be when clubs split 5-2. Could I foresee that I now have to commit to playing for diamonds to be 3-3?

Yes, I think you can, but it involves some analysis.

West didn't make a takeout double, but he has turned up with a singleton heart, A and QJ. You can be pretty sure that A is offside, so you know that the club winner is needed for the spade loser. Hence diamonds have to be 3-3.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#8 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2013-January-02, 14:50

View Postgnasher, on 2013-January-02, 07:48, said:

It looks cold off to me. East ducks the first two hearts and wins the next, as West discards a count-showing club. Now East plays back a club, and can ruff the club winner with his remaining small trump.


Maybe I'm missing something but if East ducks the first two hearts it seems declarer can switch to diamonds. Eventually East will have to ruff a club with his remaining low trump and then be thrown in with his A. (edit: as I see you mentioned in a similar line above)

I think East has to win one of the first two trumps and play back a club.
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#9 User is offline   thomas c 

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Posted 2013-January-03, 07:20

looks to me like double dummy i will always make it. win first club and lead trumps and it really doesnt matter what east does. after drawing trumps lead the j of spades. west is helpless. at the table i doubt i would make it.
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#10 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2013-January-03, 08:05

View Postthomas c, on 2013-January-03, 07:20, said:

looks to me like double dummy i will always make it. win first club and lead trumps and it really doesnt matter what east does. after drawing trumps lead the j of spades. west is helpless. at the table i doubt i would make it.


Besides the fact that you lose 2 spades and two red aces, you are home... :)
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#11 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2013-January-03, 08:08

View Postgnasher, on 2013-January-02, 07:48, said:

It looks cold off to me. East ducks the first two hearts and wins the next, as West discards a count-showing club. Now East plays back a club, and can ruff the club winner with his remaining small trump.

East must win the first or second heart and return a club. (The defense can cash the ace of diamonds if they like before playing a second club)
If you duck the second heart declarer switches to diamonds.
If the defense now plays clubs you force East to ruff the third club low, which you overruff and throw him in with the ace of trumps after you made sure he has no exit cards in diamonds left.
If the defense does not play clubs you can do this maneuver in clubs yourself.

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#12 User is offline   Wackojack 

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Posted 2013-January-03, 09:48

View Postgnasher, on 2013-January-02, 12:32, said:

Yes, I think you can, but it involves some analysis.

West didn't make a takeout double, but he has turned up with a singleton heart, A and QJ. You can be pretty sure that A is offside, so you know that the club winner is needed for the spade loser. Hence diamonds have to be 3-3.


Yes I think you have hit tha nail on the head again. If the defence does go wrong then a player better than me might well recognise that West is unlikely to have the A when not making a take out double. So when hearts are seen to be 4-1, then diamonds are more likely to break 3-3 and so east must be 4-4-3-2. It is essential therefore to draw all the trumps before cashing the 3rd and 4th diamond and then finessing the club and discard a spade.

Quote RHM "If you duck the second heart declarer switches to diamonds. If the defense now plays clubs you force East to ruff the third club low, which you overruff and throw him in with the ace of trumps after you made sure he has no exit cards in diamonds left. If the defense does not play clubs you can do this maneuver in clubs yourself."

Yes another way of making it if east ducks a heart twice.
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