College Football (US) What's with the SEC teams?
#41
Posted 2012-December-03, 12:13
bed
#42
Posted 2012-December-03, 12:17
bed
#43
Posted 2012-December-03, 12:17
bd71, on 2012-December-03, 10:13, said:
1. Missouri: Southeastern Louisiana, Arizona State, at UCF, Syracuse2. Vanderbilt: at Northwestern, Presbyterian, UMass, at Wake Forest
3. Arkansas: Jacksonville State, at Louisiana-Monroe, Rutgers, Tulsa
4. Alabama: Michigan (at Dallas), Western Kentucky, FAU, Western Carolina
5. Florida: Bowling Green, Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, at Florida State
6. LSU: North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson
7. Ole Miss: Central Arkansas, UTEP, Texas, at Tulane
8. South Carolina: ECU, UAB, Wofford, at Clemson
9. Auburn: Clemson (at Atlanta), Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Alabama A&M
10. Georgia: Buffalo, FAU, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech
11. Tennessee: NC State (at Atlanta), Georgia State, Akron, Troy
12. Kentucky: at Louisville, Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford
13. Texas A&M: at Louisiana Tech, at SMU, South Carolina State, Sam Houston State
14. Mississippi State: Jackson State, at Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee
I can't speak fot the relative stregnth of schedule for these non-conference opponents versus other conference's ooc games, but I do know that Florida has already played five schools with 10 wins or more this season, and lost one of those games. They have one more 10 win school to play in the bowl game. Someone told me that no school has ever won 4 games against opponents with 10+ wins before (I am not a football historian and didn't try to verify that), and Florida is a double digit favorite to get their 5th such win in Jan. So at least Florida had a tough schedule with games against final BCS rated teams at #7, 8, 9, 10, and 12, and one more against #21 (Louisville). So maybe OCC is not all that important during regular season for the SEC, let's see how they do in their bowl games, shall we?
#44
Posted 2012-December-03, 12:22
jjbrr, on 2012-December-03, 12:13, said:
Part of the reason for this is that both UGA and BAMA were in the SEC top 6, and they can't play against themselves.
Another reason is just luck of the draw, since the schedules are put together years in advance in most cases.
#45
Posted 2012-December-03, 12:56
Human polls are based on slot voting starting from preseason ranks.
Preseason ranks are based on how good you were last year.
The SEC was good last year.
See how it works? Once the SEC starts losing some bowl games, the cycle can be broken for next year.
-gwnn
#46
Posted 2012-December-03, 14:53
billw55, on 2012-December-03, 12:56, said:
Human polls are based on slot voting starting from preseason ranks.
Preseason ranks are based on how good you were last year.
The SEC was good last year.
See how it works? Once the SEC starts losing some bowl games, the cycle can be broken for next year.
If your bolded statement is right, and if the gamblers are right (see below), it looks like the SEC will be highly ranked again next year. It seems eight SEC teams are in Bowls this year (two BCS ones), and they are favored in all eight. In two of them they are favored by double digits, in all but two of them, they are favored by at least one touchdown. Only the Gator Bowl with Mississipi State (who struggled at the end of the year) is the point spread really very close. For what it worth, Alabama (#2) is a bigger favorite against Notre Dame (#1) than they were against Georgia (then #3, now #7).
Music City Bowl: NC State vs Vanderbilt (-7.5)
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs LSU (-7)
Gator Bowl: Northwestern vs Mississippi State (-2.5)
Outback Bowl: South Carolina (-7) vs. Michigan
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M (-6) vs Oklahoma
Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs Georgia (-12.5)
Sugar Bowl: Florida (-15.5) vs Louisville
BCS Championship Game: Alabama (-9.5) vs Notre Dame
#49
Posted 2012-December-03, 16:59
inquiry, on 2012-December-03, 14:53, said:
Nine. Ole Miss is also in a bowl game, playing Pittsburgh, and is also favored, although narrowly (as of now).
The interest in bowl game pairings often goes beyond the matchup on the field. For instance, Kansas State had a game scheduled at Oregon in September this year, but backed out because Oregon swapped out a meeting with Kansas State on a neutral field for one with LSU last year. Thus the gaudy appearance of Tennessee Tech on Oregon's schedule, which was the result of a last-minute scramble by Oregon to fill the vacated spot. Now Kansas State is the Big 12 champion and going to the Fiesta Bowl, where they will be playing Oregon after all. So here we have a storyline about the team that, in the end, has to play the game that they tried to back out of.
Meanwhile, back home, Stanford will be playing to avenge the loss to Wisconsin the last time they played in the Rose Bowl, at the turn of the millennium. At that time Wisconsin was the national power and Stanford was the lowly representative of a weak Pac-10; now the roles are reversed.
#50
Posted 2012-December-04, 07:20
inquiry, on 2012-December-03, 14:53, said:
True, but to some extent the betting line reflects public perception as much as it does real sports predicting. The only thing bookies care about is getting equal amounts bet on both sides. If enough bettors would bet Notre Dame -50, that's what the line would be, reality notwithstanding. People think the SEC is superior, therefore the betting lines favor them by more than is really warranted.
Or maybe it is warranted after all, results will tell. But if I was a betting man, I would bet against the SEC team in every game and expect to come out ahead.
-gwnn
#52
Posted 2012-December-04, 08:12
billw55, on 2012-December-04, 07:20, said:
Presumably, the same logic would have led you to the same expectation last year.
bleacherreport.com said:
AutoZone LibertyCincinnati vs. Vanderbilt -2
Chick-fil-AVirginia vs. Auburn (pick em)
OutbackMichigan State vs. Georgia -2
Capital OneNebraska -1 vs. South Carolina
Taxslayer.com Gator BowlOhio State vs. Florida -1.5
AT&T CottonKansas State vs. Arkansas -8.5
Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 17
Cincinnati 31, Vanderbilt 24
Auburn 43, Virginia 24
Michigan State 33, Georgia 30
South Carolina 30, Nebraska 13
Florida 24, Ohio State 17
Arkansas 29, Kansas State 16
Miss St, Vanderbilt, and Georgia bets lose whereas Auburn, South Carolina, Florida and Arkansas cover their spreads. Small sample size, I know, but it appears that you don't get rich betting against SEC, possibly because there are enough "deniers" trying to do so.
#53
Posted 2012-December-05, 11:47
the killer for alot of teams from other areas is having to go down south and getting killed
from the humidity
#54
Posted 2012-December-05, 13:32
Bbradley62, on 2012-December-04, 08:12, said:
I figured somebody would do that work for me
There are good reasons I am not a bettor.
-gwnn
#55
Posted 2012-December-05, 13:35
pigpenz, on 2012-December-05, 11:47, said:
the killer for alot of teams from other areas is having to go down south and getting killed
from the humidity
My guess is this is more about the fans experience and parties and how the show looks on tv, not who gets killed or injured on the field...no one really cares.
Keep in mind the big drivers here are:
violence
money
gambling
parties
#56
Posted 2012-December-06, 07:36
mike777, on 2012-December-05, 13:35, said:
Keep in mind the big drivers here are:
violence
money
gambling
parties
... and alcohol. Perhaps not sold in the stadium (I'm not sure about this) but definitely part of the tailgating and parties.
The only way to get postseason games up north is for them to start building enclosable stadiums.
-gwnn
#57
Posted 2012-December-06, 22:43
pigpenz, on 2012-December-05, 11:47, said:
the killer for alot of teams from other areas is having to go down south and getting killed
from the humidity
ok. ill bite.
how much time have you spent in the south in sept, oct, nov?
bed
#58
Posted 2012-December-06, 22:46
mike777, on 2012-December-05, 13:35, said:
Keep in mind the big drivers here are:
violence
money
gambling
parties
billw55, on 2012-December-06, 07:36, said:
The only way to get postseason games up north is for them to start building enclosable stadiums.
yeah, it has nothing to do with the fact that college football is a HUGE part of southern culture and everything to do with violence and gambling and alcohol. you guys are geniuses.
bed
#60
Posted 2012-December-18, 08:21
Some examples of rules often ignored:
(1) the student athlete recruit has to be able to read and write.
(2) tenured faculty is not obligated to change the student athlete's grades upon request.
(3) local law enforcement's first phone call must be to a designated university official whenever a student athlete is involved,
(4) sponsors of student athletes must obey certain recruiting rules, and payments to student athletes must be in line with sports community norms.
It is part of the cultural heritage of the South that most of the rules shown above, as well as many others I have not personally witnessed and hence not listed, are often ignored. The reason for all of this is something most Southerners understand in their bones, but it is darn near impossible to explain to outsiders (except, possibly in places like Northern Ireland) why it is a good thing.