[kgr]

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LHO leads ♠K. Opps are Computer programs and play udca; most of the time very honest.
♠K ♦4 ♠5 ♠3
You cross to ♣K and successfully finesse ♥Q.
♣3 ♣T ♣K ♣4
♥4 ♥8 ♥Q ♥6
♥A ♥7 ♣5 ♥2
When should you cash ♣A?

[Statto]

kgr, on 2012-May-22, 14:05, said:

When should you cash ♣A?

Having embarked on this line, we are presumably hoping to bring the contract home on a cross-ruff. I would not cash ♣A until it was clear that I won't need the ♣ finesse if I need to change tack. However, I would have started by ruffing more ♠ earlier.

[nige1]

kgr writes "LHO leads ♠K. Opps are Computer programs and play udca; most of the time very honest.
♠K ♦4 ♠5 ♠3
♣3 ♣T ♣K ♣4
♥4 ♥8 ♥Q ♥6
♥A ♥7 ♣5 ♥2"

IMO you should continue: ruff a ♥, ♣ to ♣A (hoping that both follow), ruff a ♥ (hoping for a 4-3 break), lead a ♣ to ♣J Now...
- If defenders return a trump, then draw trump (hoping that they break), ending in dummy, which is all winners..
- If defenders return anything else, then you claim on a high cross-ruff.
If all this works then congratulate partner on his bidding

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[kgr]

Statto, on 2012-May-23, 19:09, said:

Having embarked on this line, we are presumably hoping to bring the contract home on a cross-ruff. I would not cash ♣A until it was clear that I won't need the ♣ finesse if I need to change tack.

East has the ♣Q, You will not need the ♣-finesse

Statto, on 2012-May-23, 19:09, said:

However, I would have started by ruffing more ♠ earlier.

You come to your hand with ♣K and ruff a ♠. You can only come back to your hand with a ♥-ruff and not be able to finesse the ♥.

[kgr]

nige1, on 2012-May-23, 23:46, said:

kgr writes "LHO leads ♠K. Opps are Computer programs and play udca; most of the time very honest.
♠K ♦4 ♠5 ♠3
♣3 ♣T ♣K ♣4
♥4 ♥8 ♥Q ♥6
♥A ♥7 ♣5 ♥2"

IMO you should continue: ruff a ♥, ♣ to ♣A (hoping that both follow), ruff a ♥ (hoping for a 4-3 break), lead a ♣ to [CL}J Now...
- If defenders return a trump, then draw trump (hoping that they break), ending in dummy, which is all winners..
- If defenders return anything else, then you claim on a high cross-ruff.
If all this works then congratulate partner on his bidding

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East started with ♥6 and then ♥7 (showing an even number - udca). West started with ♥8 and then ♥2 (showing an odd number - udca).

[nige1]

kgr, on 2012-May-24, 14:20, said:

East started with ♥6 and then ♥7 (showing an even number - udca). West started with ♥8 and then ♥2 (showing an odd number - udca).

OK. If LHO has five ♠ and five ♥, I think you need him to hold singleton or doubleton ♣Q, too. I think I'd still try ♠ ruff, ♣A, finesse ♥Q. cash ♥A. and continue with a third ♥.

[nige1]

duplicate, sorry

[kgr]

nige1, on 2012-May-24, 20:49, said:

OK. If LHO has five ♠ and five ♥, I think you need him to hold singleton or doubleton ♣Q, too. I think I'd still try ♠ ruff, ♣A, finesse ♥Q. cash ♥A. and continue with a third ♥.

Lho had small doubleton club

[nige1]

kgr, on 2012-May-25, 01:53, said:

Lho had small doubleton club

If you believe defenders' signals then cashing both top ♣ early is a good idea and gives the defence a chance to go wrong
Unfortunately, however, a double-dummy program reveals that:
if LHO's shape is 5503 (or 5512 without ♣Q) then RHO can defeat you, by ruffing ♥ leads from dummy with middle ♦s
That is a hard defence to find, at the table,
But a cunning robot should be up for it
If declarer held ♦KQ86 then even a robot would succumb

[kgr]

Thanks a lot for your interest!

nige1, on 2012-May-25, 14:37, said:

If you believe defenders' signals then cashing both top ♣ early is a good idea and gives the defence a chance to go wrong
Unfortunately, however, a double-dummy program reveals that:
if LHO's shape is 5503 (or 5512 without ♣Q) then RHO can defeat you, by ruffing ♥ leads from dummy with middle ♦s
That is a hard defence to find, at the table,
But a cunning robot should be up for it
If declarer held ♦KQ86 then even a robot would succumb

LHO is 5512 without ♣Q and the robot will ruff ♥ leads from dummy with middle ♦s if you cash both top ♣ early. (That is what I did).
But still you can win if you don't play the ♣A too soon.
If you start ruffing ♥ (RHO has to ruff with middle cards or you cash ♣A and cross ruff) and ♠. I come down to:

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Now you play to ♣A, ruff a ♥ and a ♣for RHO's Q.
I wondered if I should have found this. Cashing the ♣A early was certainly not good. I did that on the general principle to cash winners before starting a cross-ruff. I hoped to make my ♦3 as well. I still don't fully understand it
I wonder how easy this looks and how complex it is in reality
EDIT: If anyone could explain me how to reason to find the correct line at the table then that would make me happy

[nige1]

KGR writes "Thanks a lot for your interest!
Now you play to ♣A, ruff a ♥ and a ♣for RHO's Q.
I wondered if I should have found this. Cashing the ♣A early was certainly not good. I did that on the general principle to cash winners before starting a cross-ruff. I hoped to make my ♦3 as well. I still don't fully understand it
I wonder how easy this looks and how complex it is in reality
If anyone could explain me how to reason to find the correct line at the table then that would make me happy


My pleasure. Thank you, KGR, for a fascinating problem and your accurate analysis
I went wrong when I swopped ♦Q and ♦A, to simplify the problem for the double-dummy program
Without computer help I suggested the first (unsuccessful) line,
So I would never find the winning line, at the table

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