[Zelandakh]

You are dealer at Teams and hold AKJ84/K87/K6/JT6. Since you are playing a weak NT today you open 1S and rebid 2NT over partner's 2C response. Partner now signs off in 4S. LHO leads ♦J and you see:-

Teams. West leads DJ

---

I would like you to compare 2 lines. The first:-

Win ♦A, ♠ to the 8. Assuming it loses, win the ♦ return, ♠A, ♣A, ♠ to the J.

The alternative:-

Win ♦K, ♠K, ♦A, ♠ to the 8. If West shows out then ♣A and ♠ to the J.

Which of these 2 lines is better? Is one of them optimal or is there a third line that is better? No need to comment on the bidding though please.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Option 1
... A) to protect against East holding Q 10 9 x .

whereas Option 2 puts you in jeopardy with A)

[AlexJonson]

I would definitely at the table win the diamond King, cash a spade and cross to a club. Now spade to the Jack.

[Hanoi5]

I like the second one better. Not sure how correct that is.

[AlexJonson]

I think this kind of hand depends on how many IMPs, over the long run, it's correct to sacrifice to avoid a rare loss.

Finding E with QT9x in spades, and less than three clubs, and not holding Ace of hearts is about 2% I guess.

Is it optimal to lose IMPs by losing the overtrick when spades are 32/23 with the Queen in West?

[Fluffy]

Low to the 8 seems much better.

[mfa1010]

I vote for the alternative line of not playing spade to the 8. I don't think the safe play is worth it, as AlexJonson is arguing. In addition we have to deduct for the increased risk of a club ruff by losing a spade early. Clubs could be 6-0, or 5-1 with west having a singleton ♠9 or ♠T. Then we are down on a club shift with ♥A offside. I admit he might have led a club then.

[FrancesHinden]

Maybe I'm being stupid but I don't understand option 2.
If both players play low on the first spade, then East will play the Q, 10 or 9 on the second round and I can't play low to the 8.

I don't like option 1, it seems to go off a fair amount of the time that spades are 3-2 with the HA wrong.

I haven't worked out the odds properly, but my intuition is to cash one top honour then play low to the 8 if LHO plays the 10 or 9 on the first round, otherwise low to the jack.

Now someone will explain why my intuition is wrong.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2011-December-03, 13:36, said:

Option 1
... A) to protect against East holding Q 10 9 x .

whereas Option 2 puts you in jeopardy with A)

Not sure if this analysis is correct for the "safety play" above:

A) The odds of West holding 5 or 6 Clubs is 8 %

B1) The odds of a 3-2 Spade split with west holding the doubleton is 34%

B2) The odds of West specifically holding Q 10 ( or 9 ) doubleton is half of 34% = 17% ( see below )

    Q 10       9 a b
    Q 9       10 a b
    Q a       10 9 b
    Q b       10 9 a

Therefore, the odds of A + B2 occurring = .08 x .17 x 100 = 1.4 %

And that doesn't take into account the 50% probabilty of the Ht Ace offsides .....
which reduces the "adverse" odds to less than 1% ,

[Fluffy]

how can low to the 8 go down?, it will win when RHO has Q109xx and Q109x, on the rest it loses overtricks unless clubs 6-0 or 5-1 with spades 4-1?

[TWO4BRIDGE]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-December-04, 07:45, said:

..... I don't understand option 2.
If both players play low on the first spade, then East will play the Q, 10 or 9 on the second round and I can't play low to the 8.
.... cash one top honour then play low to the 8 if LHO plays the 10 or 9 on the first round, otherwise low to the jack.

Agree ... if you were to select Option 2 . [ Zel needs to change the premise on Option 2 ] .

[Fluffy]

Even me understood that Zel was referring to picking a middle card from west and the 2 small spots from East on that option.

[Zelandakh]

Sorry, yes. I meant a spade to the 8 if the 9 or 10 appears from LHO on the first round. Obviously if only the 6 and 7 appear then we are going to have to play the J to beat East's card. In other words, we are putting the contract at risk against specifically QT9x with RHO in order to make an overtrick on many other layouts.