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How confident are you?

#1 User is offline   jschafer 

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Posted 2011-August-16, 12:24


A small ♦ is led and you duck thinking it is more likely that RHO goes up with the Ace from AJ than that LHO underled his ♦A. RHO wins with the ♦J, cashes the ♦Ace and returns the ♠3. You cash the ♠AK finding the ♠s to be 3-2 and put LHO on lead with a 3rd round of ♠.He returns the ♥Q, which you win. You play another round of ♥s in case they break s for you. RHO wins with the T and gives you a ruff and discard by playing another ♥. How do you play the club suit?
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#2 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2011-August-16, 12:53

It looks like LHO has ♦Q, ♥QJ and the ♠Q. If LHO had the ♣K too, that would be a rather strong 3D bid, so discount that. Now we need to figure out whether the suit is Jx-K or J-Kx (any other layout and it can't be made). LHO has 3 spades and 4 diamonds. Hearts are probably 5-4 since with 6, he might have tried to show them. If it's 4-5, then RHO has overcalled 1D with 5-5 in the reds. So I assume LHO started with 3541 shape and run the queen. Pretty confident it's the best line, but not very confident it will work lol.

Just realised I can't make it if LHO has 6 hearts anyway (would give him 3640 shape)
edit:
Spoiler

Wayne Somerville
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#3 User is offline   jschafer 

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Posted 2011-August-16, 13:35

Why do you assume LHO has ♦Q? K♣, QJ♥ and Q♠ are honours LHO could hold aren't they?

EDIT: If you remember where you think you recognise this hand from I would be curious to know where from :)
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#4 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2011-August-16, 13:56

LHO led a low diamond, I assume there's an honour over there :)
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#5 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2011-August-16, 14:11

whether the ♦Q is on our left or our right makes little difference to me, tho as a practical matter, against any but the weakest opp, I would fly the K at trick one, since RHO will usually tell me where the Q is next.....if he leads low, he has the J, and if he leads the J, he either has the J10, or is making a deceptive play from QJ, and even ignoring the reality that most players won't do that, restricted choice suggests he didn't.

But that is a minor quibble.

it sure looks as if LHO is 3=5=4=1, since we can't make if he is 3=6=4=0, as previously noted. Since it is highly unlikely that rho has 5-5 in the reds, and I am not placing him with a club void (even were he prone to 1♦ with 2=5=6=0, he'd signal violently for a switch at trick 1). So he almost has to be 2=4=5=2.

I am not playing LHO for Qxx QJxxx xxxx K....while possible, I prefer to play rho for xx Kxxx AJ9xx Kx, so lead the Q.

As to how confident I am, I'd expect to be right (where it matters) say 65% of the time.
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#6 User is offline   jschafer 

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Posted 2011-August-16, 16:04

I was wondering, if you have no other information as to where the ♦Q is on this hand. Would it be a correct to play LHO for the ♣J because he cannot hold the ♦Q AND ♣K but can hold ♦Q AND ♣J. So playing him for the ♣J is playing LHO for any ♦ holding whereas playing him for the ♣K is playing for any ♦ without the Queen.
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#7 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2011-August-17, 03:55

LHO has a 3=5=4=1 and didn't bother to show his ♥s with ♠Q and ♥QJ. Imo he may or may not have ♦Q, but I'm pretty sure he doesn't have ♣K.
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#8 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2011-August-17, 08:53

Do opps have any agreements about what West's 3♦ call means? Basically it looks like I have to choose between W holding ♠Qxx ♥QJxxx ♦Jxxx ♣J and ♠Qxx ♥QJxxx ♦Jxxx ♣K. I am inclined to play for the latter unless the opps have an agreement that 3♦ is preemptive in which case I would try the former.
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#9 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2011-August-18, 01:58

View Postpooltuna, on 2011-August-17, 08:53, said:

Do opps have any agreements about what West's 3♦ call means? Basically it looks like I have to choose between W holding ♠Qxx ♥QJxxx ♦Jxxx ♣J and ♠Qxx ♥QJxxx ♦Jxxx ♣K. I am inclined to play for the latter unless the opps have an agreement that 3♦ is preemptive in which case I would try the former.

East has played the ♦J at trick 1, so West can't have any of your holdings... :P
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#10 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2011-August-18, 07:48

View PostFree, on 2011-August-18, 01:58, said:

East has played the ♦J at trick 1, so West can't have any of your holdings... :P

convert the J♦ to ♦x
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
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