peachy, on 2011-August-26, 15:25, said:
Let the opponents make their own guess. If I have partnership experience or prior occurrences to help me make the guess, then that "PARTNERSHIP EXPERIENCE" must of course be disclosed. You cannot go on playing with your percentage numbers - where are they taken from, or what information are they based on, and how calculated???? And is that calculation to take place at the table? How? It is a YES/NO case whether an AGREEMENT exists or does not exist. Giving MI never protects opponents.
That calculation is in the brains of the players.
Please tell me: Do players deliberatly make calls without the slightest idea on how partner will understand them or do they at least have some confidence that partner will understand the calls the way they are intended?
In the first case the confidence will obviously be zero or close to zero, in the latter the player should be able to estimate the probability that his partner will understand him correctly. His partner should similarly be able to estimate the probability that he has understood the calls as intended and can give a meaningful explanation if asked.
If you have a definite agreement this probability (confidence) is obviously 100% but if you guess the confidence will be less.
All I ask is where do you draw the borderline between what is so lousy a guess that it is not worth disclosing and so safe a guess that it for all practical purposes is equivalent to an agreement? 50%? 70%? 90%? 99%? Anywhere else?