[gnasher]

Here are the hands, a breakdown of West's calls, and my analysis (which feel free to challange). I think the ones where the 3♠ overcall might have affected the result are 2 (possibly), 6, 7, 8 and 9

I haven't changed Karlson's vote on 3, because I assume his first choice is what he would have actually bid. Likewise, I haven't changed any of my bids, even though I don't understand all of them.

(1)   	S: J4
      	H: QJ76
      	D: J9
      	C: AQT94
 S: K863   		S: 7
 H: KT843      	H: A
 D: AQ8        	D: KT7543
 C: J          	C: K8753
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

(North may open)
Dbl 5, 3NT 2, pass 1
Double and 3NT lead to making games; pass probably doesn't.
--------------------------

(2)   	S: 87
      	H: Q76
      	D: Q75
      	C: K9853
 S: J4 			S: K63
 H: KJ3        	H: AT84
 D: AJT        	D: K9843
 C: AJT74      	C: Q
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

Dbl 7, 4C 1
All actions lead to 5D or 4H. These make with careful play and normal views. 3NT would probably make unless declarer played for spades to be 7-1.
After a 2S overcall, we'd get to and make 3NT.
--------------------------

(3)   	S: K643
      	H: AT76
      	D: 543
      	C: J9
 S: 8          	S: J7
 H: KQJ83      	H: 4
 D: 9          	D: AKQJT87
 C: AKQT74 		C: 853
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

(East may open 3NT)
4C 6, 4H 1, 4S 1, 4NT 1
All actions except 4H lead to a making game.
--------------------------

(4)   	S: K86
      	H: AT4
      	D: T75
      	C: JT93
 S: J73        	S: 4
 H: KQJ        	H: 8763
 D: AJ98   		D: KQ43
 C: Q54        	C: AK87
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

Dbl 5, 3NT 1, 4D 1, pass 1
Double leads to a making 5D, the esoteric 4D leads to 4D, pass probably leads to 3S
--------------------------

(5)   	S: 73
      	H: Q864
      	D: K83
      	C: KJ93
 S: KJ4        	S: 86
 H: AJT7   		H: K3
 D: JT9        	D: AQ754
 C: A87        	C: QT54
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

(East may not open)
3NT 8
3NT makes
--------------------------

(6)   	S: 63
      	H: QJ76
      	D: AJT5
      	C: QJ7
 S: J7 			S: K84
 H: T84        	H: AK3
 D: Q74        	D: K983
 C: AK843      	C: T95
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

Pass 5, dbl 3
Pass leads to a small plus; Double leads to either 3Sx-2 or 3NT-3
Not clear what would happen after a 2S overcall.
--------------------------

(7)   	S: J3
      	H: Q3
      	D: AKJ83
      	C: 7543
 S: K74        	S: 86
 H: KT874      	H: AJ6
 D: 74 			D: QT95
 C: K98        	C: AQJT
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

(North may open)
Pass 6, dbl 2
Pass leads to a small plus; not clear what double leads to - anything from +620 to -200.
Not clear what would happen after a 2S overcall.
--------------------------

(8)   	S: 64
      	H: AQ643
      	D: Q4
      	C: K753
 S: 87 			S: KJ3
 H: KT8        	H: J7
 D: AJ8        	D: KT9753
 C: AT984      	C: QJ
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

(North may open; East may not)
Dbl 7, pass 1
Double may lead to 5D-3, 3NT-1 or 3Sx=
After a 2S overcall we'd probably reach 3NT.
--------------------------

(9)   	S: J84
      	H: AKT
      	D: 853
      	C: QT84
 S: 763        	S: K
 H: QJ873      	H: 64
 D: Q7 			D: AKJT94
 C: KJ5        	C: A973
      	S: AQT952
      	H: 952
      	D: 62
      	C: 62

Pass 8, dbl 1
Pass probably leads to a small plus from 3S, unless East protects with 3NT
Double leads to 3NT= or 5D-1
Not clear what would happen after a 2S overcall.

[Mbodell]

gwnn, on 2011-February-04, 03:57, said:

But this is only one side of the story - you should give all four hands and see all their decisions. Then you should give hands where "we" would bid 3♠ and you 3♠, then some hands where we would bid 3♠ and you 4♠, then hands where we'd pass or 1♠ and you'd bid 2♠.

While I agree with your general point that we'd need to evaluate all the other possible bids and second and third order ramifications, it is possible that someone bids 3♠ with the hand from the other thread but still pretty much bids 4♠ only when you would. You'd still need to compare what happens when you bid 3♠ because partner would know more precisely your hand (both for sacrifice and defensive play), but a super wide ranging 3rd seat 3♠ doesn't have to widen your 4♠ by much if at all.

[han]

My main worry with 3S is that partner takes it seriously. On hands 3, 4 and 9, will north raise to 4S? (or even 5S on 3?)