Posted 2011-January-13, 21:34
Seems like we mostly need South not to have HJ9x of spades and switch to a top spade.
A possible line is to take the ♥Q at face value, win the ♥K, finesse hearts, and play clubs from the top, hoping for 3 hearts, 1 diamond and 5 clubs.
Another possibility is to win the ♥A in dummy, cash the ♦A, and play the ♣Q (to keep an entry in dummy), hoping for 2 hearts, 2 diamonds and 5 clubs. If the ♣Q wins, cross to the ♥K, cash the diamond, and guess the clubs (Kxx opposite xx, or xxx opposite Kx - I think Brad Moss ducked a doubleton King in a similar position against Weinstein-Levin a while ago - and got it dropped!). North likely has a spade honor though, and ducking from Kx is hard, so playing South for Kxx is normal here.
Not cashing the ♦A in line 2 - win ♥A then play clubs from the top - means you don't need to worry about entries to dummy or 4-1 clubs, and makes when South has the ♥J, but it doesn't work when South led from Qx (unless it is Q9) because he gets out a heart while the diamonds are blocked.
First line needs the heart lead to be from QJ, the second line needs South not to have Kxxx clubs.
I find it difficult to choose between two lowish percentage alternatives, that South led ♥Q without the Jack (play line 2) or that South has Kxxx clubs, opened 1♦ (4+), led a heart from QJ(x), and North didn't bid 1♠ (play line 1).
I think both lines will usually work. Maybe on the auction South might be likely to try an unusual heart lead, so playing line 2 and making unless South also has Kxxx club (or North does very well with Kx of clubs) is best.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.