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MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?
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Play 3NT Which red suit?
#1
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Posted 2010-December-30, 18:45
MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#2
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Posted 2010-December-30, 19:28
Hanoi5, on 2010-December-30, 18:45, said:
MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?
gut is to lead a ♣ to dummy and lead a ♦ towards the Q
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
#3
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Posted 2010-December-30, 19:39
If you play on ♦ -- seems a better chance for the contract than ♥ -- it would clearly be advantageous (e.g. South has xxx,A10x,KJ10x,xxx) to play high from dummy at trick 1.
However, since the contract is absolutely normal and the game is matchpoints, playing on ♥ seems justified on the grounds that it maximizes the expected number of tricks.
However, since the contract is absolutely normal and the game is matchpoints, playing on ♥ seems justified on the grounds that it maximizes the expected number of tricks.
#4
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Posted 2010-December-30, 20:12
Play the queen of spades at trick one! Then a diamond off dummy.
#5
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Posted 2010-December-30, 20:34
Hanoi5, on 2010-December-30, 18:45, said:
MP's, you receive a ♠2 lead to the 8 and your Jack, what now?
#6
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Posted 2010-December-31, 00:09
win first tick in hand with J and lead low toward the heart K then back toward the heart Q.
this lop succeeds whenever hearts break 33 18 out of 30 cases when hearts break 42
winning trick 1 in dummy and trying to run 7 wins 16 of 30 when hearts break 42
Leading toward K and back to Q has around 64% chance of success vs 61% winning trick one in dummy and leading the 7 for finesse.
Winning trick 1 in dummy and leading toward dia Q is an illusion. This lop gives up
1 dia 1 hea and 2 spa but works only when dia are 33. Even if you score 4 dia tricks
if only goes with 3 clubs and 2 spades for 9 so at imps leading toward dia Q is
no better than A5432 oppsite 67. 36% LOP
this lop succeeds whenever hearts break 33 18 out of 30 cases when hearts break 42
winning trick 1 in dummy and trying to run 7 wins 16 of 30 when hearts break 42
Leading toward K and back to Q has around 64% chance of success vs 61% winning trick one in dummy and leading the 7 for finesse.
Winning trick 1 in dummy and leading toward dia Q is an illusion. This lop gives up
1 dia 1 hea and 2 spa but works only when dia are 33. Even if you score 4 dia tricks
if only goes with 3 clubs and 2 spades for 9 so at imps leading toward dia Q is
no better than A5432 oppsite 67. 36% LOP
#7
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Posted 2010-December-31, 03:13
As others suggest, winning SJ not SQ in dummy,
what lesser play from here?
Hope H:3+3, repeat SQ finesse for overtrick.
what lesser play from here?
Hope H:3+3, repeat SQ finesse for overtrick.
#8
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2010-December-31, 05:00
The advantage of running ♥7 is that you will make an extra overtrick when South plays low from something like xxx A10x Kxx xxxx. Should South play ♥10 on the first round from that? I suppose he should, but I bet most players wouldn't.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#9
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Posted 2011-January-02, 11:21
gnasher, on 2010-December-31, 05:00, said:
The advantage of running ♥7 is that you will make an extra overtrick when South plays low from something like xxx A10x Kxx xxxx.
It's an interesting card combination but on this particular hand I don't see how declarer can establish 10 tricks without creating 4 for the defense. For example even if North wins the ♥J and exits with a ♦, there's still time for the defense to score its ♠ trick.
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