[hanp]

Scoring: IMP

(4H) - p - (p) - 4S
(p) - ??

---

Your call?

[Fluffy]

we could be anywere from 10 to 13 tricks, its a bit tough, but I'd try a general slam try with 5♥

[karlson]

No idea, but I'll continue to be a chicken and pass today.

[hotShot]

Obviously it's your agreement to pass such strong hands in 2nd seat. So your partner would balance weak?
If so we have to pay the price now and pass.
Or do we have an agreement how to show strength now? Such an agreement would be useful now.

Without an agreement I think I now have to bid 5♠ if that is optimistic.

[the hog]

I am passing. 4S in the pass out seat may not be that brilliant.

[MFA]

Being vul vs not tips it for me - partner needs something to venture 4♠.
I try 5♥.

[lmilne]

Think I'd probably do something - not sure what the difference is between 5♥ and 5♠, possibly showing/denying heart control?

[Fluffy]

lmilne, on Feb 16 2010, 01:13 PM, said:

Think I'd probably do something - not sure what the difference is between 5♥ and 5♠, possibly showing/denying heart control?

exactly

[Echognome]

Feels borderline to me. Jdonn has convinced me it's winning bridge to not hang partner. There's a good chance our ♠Q is wasted (although possible partner has 5 or partner has 6 and spades are 3-0). And A AK with JT filling in clubs all seem very good. Imagine a hand such as AKxxxx xx Qx KQx where slam is great or even without the ♣Q where we're on a hook.

I'm trying to think of hands where the 5-level isn't safe. Maybe AKJTx Qx QJx xxx? There are also hands where partner doesn't have the ♠A or K, but then he should have the rest of the goods.

So although I started out with thinking I would pass, I think there is sufficient 5-level safety to make a try. So I go with 5♥ and will pass 5♠.

[jdonn]

I would bid 5♥ myself. And I hope you aren't implying you considered it winning bridge to hang partner before I came along!

[Jlall]

Funny, I had the exact opposite feeling of gnome (thought I would bid 5H, ended up passing).

[Echognome]

jdonn, on Feb 16 2010, 11:01 AM, said:

I would bid 5♥ myself. And I hope you aren't implying you considered it winning bridge to hang partner before I came along!

I'm implying that I didn't consider that I would be hanging partner in some situations before. I think it quite useful that you made me think about it.

[Echognome]

Jlall, on Feb 16 2010, 11:21 AM, said:

Funny, I had the exact opposite feeling of gnome (thought I would bid 5H, ended up passing).

If you don't mind, I'd be interested in the sets of hands you are considering in your decision.

When I started coming up with hands, I couldn't think of ones that would not give us 5-level safety that I thought were reasonable for 4♠. This is one area I'd like to improve (i.e. my internal simulations).

[Jlall]

Echognome, on Feb 16 2010, 02:55 PM, said:

Jlall, on Feb 16 2010, 11:21 AM, said:

Funny, I had the exact opposite feeling of gnome (thought I would bid 5H, ended up passing).

If you don't mind, I'd be interested in the sets of hands you are considering in your decision.

When I started coming up with hands, I couldn't think of ones that would not give us 5-level safety that I thought were reasonable for 4♠. This is one area I'd like to improve (i.e. my internal simulations).

I suspect that I am mentally bidding 4S much lighter than you with a heart void then. KJTxxx --- xxx Axxx is an auto 4S bid to me (people might be scared of the colors, but we make opposite many normal dummies and put pressure on them etc).

Basically I think it's very likely partner has a heart void or 7 spades, and in either case he can bid quite light.

Obv he could also have a much better hand than this where 7S is cold also.

[Echognome]

Thanks Justin. Appreciate knowing what you had in mind.

I know it's all guesswork and judgment. I think with the hand you gave 5♠ should make on a (likely?) heart lead or if we add the ♣9, but that doesn't take away from the fact that we run some risk at the 5-level. I just need to generate some more hands mentally on these.

[Jlall]

Well 5 level safety isn't the only factor. We also need to know how often we get to slam and how often it's good etc.

Partner doesn't have much room over 5H, and doesn't really know what a good hand is. Is AKJxxxx --- QJx Qxx a good hand? Partner will sure think so, but it's not enough this time etc.

If I thought 5H would get us to only good slams, and get us there reasonably frequently I would bid it. The more aggressively partner is bidding over it, the more bad slams we will get to. On the other hand the less aggressively partner bids slam over it, the less likely we are to ever be bidding slam, so even a small # of times we go down at the 5 level would be a big cost.

I have no clue if passing or bidding 5H or slam forcing is right, but I do think that 5H will cause a lot of tough decisisons, so it won't be realizing its full double dummy potential.

[Jlall]

Also remember if partner has a doubleton heart they can probably ruff a heart to start with, and if partner has a void he not only could bid 4S quite light, but our AJT of hearts are not going to be worth much (we will get a pitch, but they would be much better somewhere else).

I think our heart holding is really ominous, as is having no ruffing value.

[Echognome]

Jlall, on Feb 16 2010, 12:13 PM, said:

Is AKJxxxx --- QJx Qxx a good hand? Partner will sure think so, but it's not enough this time etc.

Agree with the rest of your post, so am glad I asked. I had a question on this one part though.

If partner takes 5♥ as slam try with a control and 5♠ as slam try without one (agree?), then wouldn't a hand with a void heart be downgraded relative to a hand with a stiff that had compensating values elsewhere? Alternatively, partner should live this hand if no control is shown versus not liking it as much if one is shown.

[jdonn]

I don't think partner would move with AKJxxxx - QJx Qxx although it might be close. Like you say he knows our heart control is wasted, and he knows we have wasted spade values since we usually won't try for slam with xxx (he can even have a 5 card suit).

Of course I think the problem is close overall. It's definitely a problem that we are so flat but our good spot cards largely make up for it to me.

[Jlall]

Just realized we passed 4H so 5m is a cue over 4S... Not sure why everyone prefers 5H to 5D in that case.