[MFA]

Scoring: IMP

---

Bidding goes:

(Pass) - Pass - (Pass) - 1♣*
(Pass) - 1♦* - (DBL) - RDBL*
(Pass) - ???

Precision, so partner's 1♣ was 16+ and 1♦ was negative 0-7(8).
LHO's double showed diamonds.
Partner's redouble was artificial, any strong hand with 20+hcp. Had he bid something else, it would have been limited and nonforcing. So he could have any shape. That's the system.

Would you pass?
The alternative is 2♣, which would show a balanced 5-7(8). Being 5422 is fine, since you can show that if partner relays for shape.

[Jlall]

20-40-80+100 for insult...180 + 200 per overtrick? so if we make 2 that's 380 and its a wash if we have game, if we make 3 or more its a nice win (though we might have slam), and if we make 1 its bad, down is a disaster.

Meh I would just bid, we could have a slam pretty easily, we could possibly go down, and it's just too much of a crap shoot. I do think 580 instead of 400 or whatever is pretty likely, but that's only a smallish win, and I want to avoid the big disaster scenarios. 780 vs game seems extremely unlikely.

[gnasher]

I think you forgot the 50 for a partscore. I don't think it will make much difference to your analysis, though.

[RMB1]

Jlall, on Dec 11 2009, 10:31 PM, said:

20-40-80+100 for insult...180 + 200 per overtrick? so if we make 2 that's 380 and its a wash if we have game, ...

Plus the part score bonus = 230 + 200 per overtrick, 430, 630, ...
But the reasoning for bidding is the same.

Robin

[Jlall]

RMB1, on Dec 11 2009, 05:49 PM, said:

Jlall, on Dec 11 2009, 10:31 PM, said:

20-40-80+100 for insult...180 + 200 per overtrick? so if we make 2 that's 380 and its a wash if we have game, ...

Plus the part score bonus = 230 + 200 per overtrick, 430, 630, ...
But the reasoning for bidding is the same.

Robin

ah forgot about that 50! lol

That gives some more edge to passing for sure but I'd still bid.

[jdonn]

I agree that passing, while it could easily be a winner, is too much of a crapshoot. I'm not particularly worried at all that we won't have game and we could have slam so I'm pulling.

[kenrexford]

Definitely pass at KO.

The hand may be a wash. But, the opponents will be all freaked out. And, partner likes when the opponents are freaked out. We never get freaked out, so the advantage is ours.

[neilkaz]

Considering PD is unlimited and that 3NT has to be a claimer, I have to take a bid.

[maggieb]

I guess I'm weird, I would pass. It's hard for me to think of hands for partner, even with a diamond void, where I don't (heavily) expect to make 1Dxx, though they exist. If partner has stiff diamond honor or better I expect 1Dxx to play pretty well, and it's not like we cant have a 5-2 diamond fit (and you never know when your LHO has doubled on HHxx or something). Also it's not like 1Dxx is the easiest contract to defend in the world, so a defensive slipup is reasonably likely. I would expect the most common results to be making 2 or 3 into our game, with making 1 or 4 into our game the next most common results, and then making 2 3 or 4 into our biddable slam. We may even gain when the slam that we are about to bid goes down on bad breaks. Overall despite some of the above posters calling pass a crapshoot, in my mind it's actually the safe choice.

Also maybe this is not that important, but could LHO have opened a weak 2D?

[MFA]

maggieb, on Dec 12 2009, 08:47 AM, said:

Also maybe this is not that important, but could LHO have opened a weak 2D?

No weak 2s in ♦.

[Jlall]

maggieb, on Dec 12 2009, 01:47 AM, said:

Also maybe this is not that important, but could LHO have opened a weak 2D?

Ever been to Europe?

Although if the opps were dutch they could have opened 2C showing strong any or a weak 2 in diamonds, so it was not the worst question ever

[Jlall]

re: the possibility of us having a 5-2 diamond fit, it is possible but should be discounted based on the pass of the XX. That person would not think to bid as a RUN, but people will frequently bid with any excuse, including a 5 card major, or even a good 4 card one, ESPECIALLY when the opps seem to be able to relay after interference. I think that the pass of the XX is frequently based on a doubleton diamond, or 4414, or maybe long clubs.

Also, it is obviously possible that they doubled 1D on a 4 card suit, but then they will CERTAINLY run from 1D XX.

I think that the opps letting you play 1D XX will often mean the have a 5-2 diamond fit, not us.

[MFA]

Scoring: IMP

---

Partner chose to pass which I think is the percentage decision. Only imp expectation matters for me, I don't mind crap shooting if I feel the dice are loaded in my favour.

10 tricks, +830 vs game.

I had a very suitable hand for sure. But I would expect north to show up with a diamond honour a large percentage of the time, since west rarely has ♦AKQ for a third hand nv pass. Certainly not AKQ fifth. Those opps are strong, aggressive players (I didn't mention that) who don't fall asleep with a clear bid. And north needs to have his high cards somewhere.

Anyway, afterwards west was slightly annoyed that my partner took almost 10 sec to pass, claiming he would have run if he had passed in tempo, and that ♦JT982 was a clear pass. Of course, there is nowhere to go and all this is slightly lol which is also what I felt at the table. Passing 1♦R is far from automatic.

[dake50]

Surely partner won't X if S-Kxx onside makes 6H/6N?
So, I guess the comparison is to nv game 420 +ots. That really ups the 2D-XX payoff.