[MarkDean]

gnasher, on Apr 6 2009, 12:56 PM, said:

Playing a spade to the ace and a diamond up needs RHO to have ♦KQx. If he plays a high one and you decide to play him for H10x, you're playing for him to have misdefended - he can see that you don't have a fast entry back to dummy.

The odds of ♦KQx or ♦KQ10 onside are about half those of ♦H10x, ♦KQ10 or ♦KQ onside. Hence this line is comparable to taking a spade finesse and then playing for ♦H10 onside. Neither is as good as playing for ♥10 to come down.

Well, I meant if an honor appears on my right, I have to decide between playing RHO for HH or HHx. Given that HHx is more likely, and that playing the jack next also picks up HT on my right, I think I would take that line.

I can't pick up HHT on my right with just one entry, against correct defense.

I did an excel calc, and assuming clubs are 44 and using no other information (negative inference on bidding leads etc.), HT/HHx on my right is exactly half as likely as HT, HTx, HH, HHT. And indeed, the heart ten coming down is more likely, I had not even considered that line. So I did not misplay to the line I thought, just to one I did not even see...