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Didn't expect this one to be a play problem...

#1 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-12, 22:58

Matchpoints



Holding the south hand oyu heard pard open 2C showing 6+ clubs, so you just bid 7N after finding 2 keycards. LHO led a highish diamond and RHO played the ten. You played queen of clubs club to the ace and RHO pitched a diamond.

Do you try some line to make or just take down 1?
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#2 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 23:44

Cash the ♣K, anyway, and see what East does.
If East is 4351 with the ♥K he must pitch a spade, or the contract makes - heart finesse, ♥A, cash the diamonds and East is squeezed.
Unfortunately, if he does pitch a spade I cannot see a line to make. :unsure:
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#3 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-12, 23:47

655321, on Feb 13 2008, 12:44 AM, said:

Cash the ♣K, anyway, and see what East does.
If East is 4351 with the ♥K he must pitch a spade, or the contract makes - heart finesse, ♥A, cash the diamonds and East is squeezed.
Unfortunately, if he does pitch a spade I cannot see a line to make. :unsure:

You will go down 2 if the HK is off...
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#4 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 00:04

Jlall, on Feb 13 2008, 12:47 AM, said:

655321, on Feb 13 2008, 12:44 AM, said:

Cash the ♣K, anyway, and see what East does.
If East is 4351 with the ♥K he must pitch a spade, or the contract makes - heart finesse,  ♥A, cash the diamonds and East is squeezed.
Unfortunately, if he does pitch a spade I cannot see a line to make. :unsure:

You will go down 2 if the HK is off...

Ahh, I see. :(

Well, we could play a ♥ to the Q at trick 3, but if it loses we still need a squeeze or a spade guess to make 12 tricks. If it wins, we can play ♥A, ♠Q, ♣K, but it should be reasonably easy for East to find the spade pitch now.

There is some vacant place argument for placing the ♥K onside, reduced by some restricted choice amount for the non-heart lead, not sure what the net result of all that is.

Well, look, giving up a club to get -50 is a very depressing way to earn matchpoints, so I will stick with my original line, hoping for a friendly discard by East.   How likely is it that there are tables in 6NT - my guess is with 24 opposite 10 there may be a fair few, if so we need to make our contract, and -50 will not be a success.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#5 User is offline   cnszsun 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 00:41

At trick 3, a ♥ to Q is safe. We can always get 12 tricks. Assuming west wins it, no matter what he returns, cash 2♥s and ♦s, a double squeeze would prevail.
If ♥Q wins, we can get 13 tricks if east is 4261.
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#6 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 08:46

Any particular reason why you were in a hurry to cash the clubs?

Why not 3 spades first? If they split, you might have a red suit squeeze against RHO.
"Phil" on BBO
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#7 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 09:08

I can't seem to disentangle any 2-trick squeeze, so the best I can do is a 1-trick squeeze. Appaarently, I must have spades as communication and therefore I have to try for 4 diamond tricks. I'll start with finessing a heart and cashing the diamonds. But perhaps there's some non-canonical squeeze position brewing that's not in my book.

Justin, next time play 7♣ which is easier to make on a trump coup, kthx :)
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#8 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 09:23

I think there was a subtle error early on: the hand times out much nicer if we had tested spades first: cash 3 rounds of spades, ending in hand. If spades break 3-3, we cash the 4th one, pitching a club, and then play on clubs. That way, east is squeezed in the reds if he holds diamond length (as indicated by the lead and defence) and the heart K, while, of course, you always have 13 tricks if clubs behaved. You also retain the option of throwing West in with the 4th club if you are convinced that he holds the heart K in the endgame, alto I have difficulty seeing why you' ever play for -1 rather than take a chance to make, no matter what the scoring.

As it is, it seems to me that the timing is wrong: we cannot cash the spades to set up the cash of the club K as the squeeze card on East.

We still have an remote chance, if the heart K is doubleton. So I abandon clubs to lead a heart to the Q. If it wins, I cash the Ace. If the K appears, then I have east in a pointed suit squeeze: he is 5=2=5=1 or 4=2=6=1. If it loses, I have good chances for down 1.
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#9 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-13, 10:30

If you cash 3 rounds of spades you go down 2 (or more) if the guy with 4 clubs has 4 spades. You also all your dummy entries so if you are going to squeeze RHO you are going to guess his shape (because diamonds are not cashed), and then you are going to have to risk going down 2 on the heart finesse still.

I guess people are not really finding avoiding down 2 to be very important on this board. In practice on this actual hand you will lose about 1/3rd of a board by going down 2 instead of down 1. On some of the suggested lines you go down 2 A LOT more often than you make.
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#10 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-13, 10:32

cnszsun, on Feb 13 2008, 01:41 AM, said:

At trick 3, a ♥ to Q is safe. We can always get 12 tricks. Assuming west wins it, no matter what he returns, cash 2♥s and ♦s, a double squeeze would prevail.
If ♥Q wins, we can get 13 tricks if east is 4261.

This is a very good post and is what I was getting at. It is safe to hook the heart because you will have an automatic double if it loses, and it gives you a remote chance to make. So you can always preserve down 1. On this hand LHO had the king of hearts so it didn't matter. Really surprised people are willing to risk turning their solid ave- into a zero though.
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 10:47

Well, the point is I don't think the field will be in 7 most of the time, so -1 seems like -2 to me.
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#12 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-13, 10:50

whereagles, on Feb 13 2008, 11:47 AM, said:

Well, the point is I don't think the field will be in 7 most of the time, so -1 seems like -2 to me.

You think nobody in the field will be in 7?? Wow. Well that was not the case in this event and it was just a random regional pair game.
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#13 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 14:49

Agree with heart hook after two clubs.

I'd expect 60+% of the field to be in a grand. So avoiding the 2nd down is important.
Kind regards,
Harald
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