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Sugar and spice and everything nice? or snakes and snails and puppy dog tails

#1 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 15:47

AKT9xx
KJTx
---
Axx

Uncontested auction, love all at MPs.

3 - 3
4 - ?

How rosy is your view?

What now?

What if you are playing IMPs?
"Half the people you know are below average." - Steven Wright
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#2 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 15:51

I'm passing this, and I don't think it's close.

I'm not moving at IMPs either, but that's a closer call.
Kind regards,
Harald
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#3 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 15:57

Hmm, changed my mind again. Back to just passing, 5 if desperate at IMPs as a punt, 6 also okay.
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#4 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 16:03

Pass.
No reason why we should expect to make slam. For example, we will often (usually?) be off the A and the Q, even before worrying about the club suit.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#5 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-12, 16:05

If you bid 6 I think you should go in clubs, partner could easily have a doubleton spade.

Gnome do you play 4red as a cuebid for spades over 3S? Any agreement? With that agreement I would pass for sure. The only way I would bid is if 3C usually delivered 2 of the top 3 and a 7 card suit or something. With myself I would def pass.
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#6 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 16:06

Jlall, on Feb 12 2008, 02:05 PM, said:

If you bid 6 I think you should go in clubs, partner could easily have a doubleton spade.

Gnome do you play 4red as a cuebid for spades over 3S? Any agreement? With that agreement I would pass for sure. The only way I would bid is if 3C usually delivered 2 of the top 3 and a 7 card suit or something. With myself I would def pass.

No agreements as such. First time playing together, which meant I felt it all the more likely that partner had a sound call.
"Half the people you know are below average." - Steven Wright
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#7 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 17:06

Hmm yeah agree with that Matt. With a regular partner I would surely pass though.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#8 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 17:19

It makes a difference whether partner was first or second seat.

It feels like I am worth one move but if partner's clubs are not running then the five-level is very dangerous. So I pass.

If I could move then I would want to be able to offer 6.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#9 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 17:48

Echognome, on Feb 12 2008, 04:06 PM, said:

Jlall, on Feb 12 2008, 02:05 PM, said:

If you bid 6 I think you should go in clubs, partner could easily have a doubleton spade.

Gnome do you play 4red as a cuebid for spades over 3S? Any agreement? With that agreement I would pass for sure. The only way I would bid is if 3C usually delivered 2 of the top 3 and a 7 card suit or something. With myself I would def pass.

No agreements as such. First time playing together, which meant I felt it all the more likely that partner had a sound call.

I agree that partners who haven't seen your preempts yet will bid more disciplined.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#10 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 17:56

Jlall, on Feb 12 2008, 11:05 PM, said:

Gnome do you play 4red as a cuebid for spades over 3S?

Is that something you need to discuss? I'd just assume that four of a red suit showed spade support and shortage.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#11 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 19:51

6S. Hope 6-7C to KQ/KJ10 with SQx. May not even need H-guess(Q or A onside).
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#12 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-February-12, 21:02

dake50, on Feb 13 2008, 02:51 PM, said:

6S. Hope 6-7C to KQ/KJ10 with SQx. May not even need H-guess(Q or A onside).

That seems incredibly optimistic.

I think 4 can be on xx.

And there is no guarantee that partner has the K.

Other things being equal ...

Let's say partner has two spades then there is only a 2:5 against chance that he has the Q.

Even if partner has three spades then it is 3:4 against that he has the spade queen. Of course then there is a chance that the spades will break or he has the jack and the queen drops.

In clubs if he has six then it is 6:4 on that he has the K and if he has seven clubs then it is 7:3 on. There are added chances with the club QJ etc but they might require an entry to the dummy.

I think two spades is more likely than three and six clubs is more likely than seven (although this may depend on your pre-empting style).

The best chance is when partner has three spades and seven clubs but then we are still only a combined chance of 3/7 x 7/10 = 3/10 to cover both losers (plus some residuals). The worst chance is much worse 2/7 x 6/10 = 6/35 < 20%

Of course these numbers might be affected by the fact that partner did decide to open but they have to improve a lot to cover our losers.

There are other possibilities but all slim when you consider the possession of the A.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 04:42

I'm gonna pass unless pard is solid (in which case I bid 6).
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#14 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 04:51

I pass.

If you think of slamming now, I think that you shouldn't have bid 3. It would have been better to just bash 6.

The new information that you got from partner's 4 bid is that partner is more likely to have three small spades. That is not good news. So, if you were thinking of slam all along, the 4 bid should make you shy away from bidding it.

Rik
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#15 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-13, 10:35

gnasher, on Feb 12 2008, 06:56 PM, said:

Jlall, on Feb 12 2008, 11:05 PM, said:

Gnome do you play 4red as a cuebid for spades over 3S?

Is that something you need to discuss? I'd just assume that four of a red suit showed spade support and shortage.

Dunno, I would not assume it showed shortness so we would be on different wavelengths. Maybe you do not preempt with 3226 but I am not as sound :)
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#16 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 11:04

Expecting K from partner is not expecting much for a vulnerable opening, I find it close but I would move on. Knowing partner would help to find out what he's got in spades, but with no notion I think 6 is our best shot (it was still the round before :))
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#17 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 11:06

Fluffy, love all means non-vulnerable.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#18 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 11:11

really?, damn, love should mean red, not white nor green lol.
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#19 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 14:49

For what it's worth partner held:

Jx
x
Jxxx
KQJxxx

Given we had just had a bottom, I punted 6 with the reasoning of protecting my K on opening lead. That reasoning flew out the window when I saw dummy. But luck was with us when Qx were onside.
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#20 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2008-February-13, 17:06

Cascade, let's see NO SQ, NO CK NO HA HQ so partner 3C on S-xx H-xx D-xxx C-Q109xxx. He is some kind of masochist! Rule of 5-6?
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