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FrancesHinden, on Jan 24 2008, 11:27 AM, said:
umm... I'm closer to bidding 4H than passing.
What Frances said.
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#21
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Posted 2008-January-24, 14:49
What Frances said.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
#22
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Posted 2008-January-24, 14:55
Hannie, on Jan 24 2008, 03:08 PM, said:
mikeh, on Jan 24 2008, 03:00 PM, said:
If partner accepts the invitation, then I'd expect partner to make game about half the time. If he passes the invitation, I'd expect to make 3♥ about half the time.
So I invite...
So I invite...
Surely you did not mean this, it makes no sense. Or does it?
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
#23
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Posted 2008-January-24, 15:08
Got to top scoring MP partial --bet 2H outscores any other -- isn't that enough on this hand? ?
#24 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-January-24, 15:12
jdonn, on Jan 24 2008, 02:18 PM, said:
Closer to 4♥ than pass? So you think 4♥ is making more than half the time? That's pretty bold.
Yes I think this. I definitely think that opposite hands that accept a move game will make a lot (enough to make up for going down in 3H).
awm said:
There is also the issue that you would probably bid 3♥ with:
♠A
♥KJxxx
♦Qxxx
♣xxx
♠A
♥KJxxx
♦Qxxx
♣xxx
No offense but I think that bidding 3H with this hand is insane. Yes maybe game will go down but I would bet that of hands passing a 3H bid game will make a majority of the time. It may well be that you and I have different standards of what will bid over 3H because we have different standards for a 3H bid apparantly (which came first the chicken or the egg?) To use a Fred-like argument I would definitely guess that most experts consider this a 4H bid.
I agree that this is a problem because of the huge range of the 2H bid, but barring any artificiality you are going to miss game too much by passing 2H with this hand in my opinion.
#25 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-January-24, 15:13
awm, on Jan 24 2008, 02:28 PM, said:
Perhaps the odds of partner holding a "perfect" 5-5 minimum are reduced by the lack of bidding from the opponents...
Agreed but his average HCP holding also goes up because of the opponents silence.
#26
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Posted 2008-January-24, 15:22
Bidding game at matchpoints only really helps if "the field" is bidding game and making. Partner's declarer-play ability isn't all that relevant -- any time partner's "the only person to make ten tricks" we will get a top regardless of who bids what game.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#27
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Posted 2008-January-24, 15:36
awm, on Jan 24 2008, 04:22 PM, said:
Bidding game at matchpoints only really helps if "the field" is bidding game and making.
Perhaps in California, but here in Wisconsin you get a great score if there are 10 tricks and you are in game while the field is not.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
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Posted 2008-January-24, 15:43
Jlall, on Jan 24 2008, 06:07 PM, said:
FrancesHinden, on Jan 24 2008, 11:27 AM, said:
umm... I'm closer to bidding 4H than passing.
Couldn't agree more, I think passing is a huge error with thsi hand.
Ditto. Passing is way beyond me.
Kind regards,
Harald
Harald
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Posted 2008-January-24, 15:45
awm, on Jan 24 2008, 10:22 PM, said:
Bidding game at matchpoints only really helps if "the field" is bidding game and making. Partner's declarer-play ability isn't all that relevant -- any time partner's "the only person to make ten tricks" we will get a top regardless of who bids what game.
Well, I can tell you nobody would stop in 2♥ in a tournament around here holding that hand.
Kind regards,
Harald
Harald
#30
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Posted 2008-January-24, 15:54
Here are some random hands for opener. I generated these by requiring 5+♠, 4+♥, and 11+ hcp and requiring the given hand for responder.
(1)
♠J98742
♥AKQ5
♦Q7
♣6
Making 4♥ is surprisingly tricky if opponents tap declarer early. Of course a 3-3 spade break will always see you home, but otherwise it seems tough! Not clear if this hand accepts an invite. It's possible the play in 3♥ will be along different lines (ruff three minor suit tricks in hand).
(2)
♠KQ752
♥9754
♦Q5
♣A6
Even 3♥ will be difficult.
(3)
♠KT7653
♥Q9754
♦-
♣AK
We are ice-cold for 4♥. This hand would rebid 3♥ in a strong club system, but this is the normal start playing 2/1.
(4)
♠QJT64
♥Q954
♦A5
♣Q5
Even 3♥ will be a challenge on this hand.
(5)
♠KQ9432
♥AQ9754
♦-
♣7
This hand might rebid something other than 2♥ (i.e. 4♥ if that shows this hand, or 3♥ GF despite the low point-count). In any case 4♥ is cold and 6♥ has good play.
(6)
♠KJ7542
♥KQ54
♦9
♣KT
Basically 4♥ is on the club finesse, with some extra chances against sub-optimal defense.
(7)
♠K8643
♥AKQ6
♦QT
♣85
No play for 4♥. The 3♥ contract is cold, but this hand might bump to game?
(8)
♠JT954
♥AK654
♦K
♣86
Some might not open this hand. Nonetheless it offers decent play for 4♥.
(9)
♠KQJT642
♥AQ74
♦8
♣9
Cold for 4♠! It will probably make 4♥ also. Some might rebid spades on this hand.
(10)
♠KQT53
♥AK54
♦A
♣T98
4♥ is on a heart break. This hand surely accepts an invite.
(11)
♠KT642
♥A754
♦K
♣AK9
4♥ virtually cold.
(12)
♠Q8742
♥A964
♦K9
♣QT
No play for 4♥, and even 3♥ is problematic. Some might not open this.
(13)
♠QJ965
♥KQ64
♦K
♣Q75
Not much play for even 3♥.
(14)
♠KQ8432
♥AKQ6
♦T7
♣J
Cold for 4♥, and the auction is normal.
(15)
♠KT983
♥A9764
♦Q8
♣K
Makes 3♥ easily enough, but not four. Is this an accept of the invite? Perhaps not with the minor suit values.
Summing up:
4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).
3 Hands where 3♥ makes and 4♥ is poor (1, 7, 15). One of these probably accepts invite.
2 Hands where 4♥ is good at IMPs (6, 10) but take-it-or-leave it at MPs.
6 Hands where 4♥ is good (3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 14). Some of these might not rebid 2♥ though, especially if system allows another call (i.e. big club, gazzilli, etc).
(1)
♠J98742
♥AKQ5
♦Q7
♣6
Making 4♥ is surprisingly tricky if opponents tap declarer early. Of course a 3-3 spade break will always see you home, but otherwise it seems tough! Not clear if this hand accepts an invite. It's possible the play in 3♥ will be along different lines (ruff three minor suit tricks in hand).
(2)
♠KQ752
♥9754
♦Q5
♣A6
Even 3♥ will be difficult.
(3)
♠KT7653
♥Q9754
♦-
♣AK
We are ice-cold for 4♥. This hand would rebid 3♥ in a strong club system, but this is the normal start playing 2/1.
(4)
♠QJT64
♥Q954
♦A5
♣Q5
Even 3♥ will be a challenge on this hand.
(5)
♠KQ9432
♥AQ9754
♦-
♣7
This hand might rebid something other than 2♥ (i.e. 4♥ if that shows this hand, or 3♥ GF despite the low point-count). In any case 4♥ is cold and 6♥ has good play.
(6)
♠KJ7542
♥KQ54
♦9
♣KT
Basically 4♥ is on the club finesse, with some extra chances against sub-optimal defense.
(7)
♠K8643
♥AKQ6
♦QT
♣85
No play for 4♥. The 3♥ contract is cold, but this hand might bump to game?
(8)
♠JT954
♥AK654
♦K
♣86
Some might not open this hand. Nonetheless it offers decent play for 4♥.
(9)
♠KQJT642
♥AQ74
♦8
♣9
Cold for 4♠! It will probably make 4♥ also. Some might rebid spades on this hand.
(10)
♠KQT53
♥AK54
♦A
♣T98
4♥ is on a heart break. This hand surely accepts an invite.
(11)
♠KT642
♥A754
♦K
♣AK9
4♥ virtually cold.
(12)
♠Q8742
♥A964
♦K9
♣QT
No play for 4♥, and even 3♥ is problematic. Some might not open this.
(13)
♠QJ965
♥KQ64
♦K
♣Q75
Not much play for even 3♥.
(14)
♠KQ8432
♥AKQ6
♦T7
♣J
Cold for 4♥, and the auction is normal.
(15)
♠KT983
♥A9764
♦Q8
♣K
Makes 3♥ easily enough, but not four. Is this an accept of the invite? Perhaps not with the minor suit values.
Summing up:
4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).
3 Hands where 3♥ makes and 4♥ is poor (1, 7, 15). One of these probably accepts invite.
2 Hands where 4♥ is good at IMPs (6, 10) but take-it-or-leave it at MPs.
6 Hands where 4♥ is good (3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 14). Some of these might not rebid 2♥ though, especially if system allows another call (i.e. big club, gazzilli, etc).
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#31
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Posted 2008-January-24, 16:09
pclayton, on Jan 24 2008, 02:35 PM, said:
I'd raise. I'll take my chances with a random max.
Meckstroth bids 4♥...
Meckstroth bids 4♥...
Playing against Rodwell (but not with Meckstroth) once in the GNT North American finals round-robin (first day), we had a competitive auction - we were bidding spades, they were bidding hearts. Rodwell finally bid 4♥ which we doubled for 300. As soon as the dummy hit Rodwell said that he should have bid 4♥ earlier in the auction as Meckstroth would have done. By bidding 4♥ earlier, he would have avoided getting doubled.
I think these bids are referred to as Meckstroth game tries. Bid game and try to make it.
#32
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Posted 2008-January-24, 16:12
ZAR fit points...
8 hcp
2 control points
13 distributional points
4 + 2 minimum "mis-fit" points with super fit
1 point for fit spade ACE
--------
This comes to 30 Zar fit points (add misfit point when holding 9 card or more fit, subtract them with no fit. To get the 6 misfit points, add the greater of the two difference in legnth between offsuits. We figure partner is at least 5-4 in the majors, so we have a 4 card difference in spades. If partner is 5422, we have a two card difference in diamonds. If he is 5440 we have a three card difference in clubs, if he is 5413 we have a three card differnce in diamonds, if he is 5431 we have a two card diffference in clubs. I use the conservative 2 cards difference in minors.
This explains why someone would think it is closer to 4♥ than pass. BTW, i would bid 4♥s.
8 hcp
2 control points
13 distributional points
4 + 2 minimum "mis-fit" points with super fit
1 point for fit spade ACE
--------
This comes to 30 Zar fit points (add misfit point when holding 9 card or more fit, subtract them with no fit. To get the 6 misfit points, add the greater of the two difference in legnth between offsuits. We figure partner is at least 5-4 in the majors, so we have a 4 card difference in spades. If partner is 5422, we have a two card difference in diamonds. If he is 5440 we have a three card difference in clubs, if he is 5413 we have a three card differnce in diamonds, if he is 5431 we have a two card diffference in clubs. I use the conservative 2 cards difference in minors.
This explains why someone would think it is closer to 4♥ than pass. BTW, i would bid 4♥s.
--Ben--
#33
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Posted 2008-January-24, 16:37
awm, on Jan 24 2008, 10:54 PM, said:
4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).
The four hands were:
KQ752 9754 Q5 A6
QJT64 Q954 A5 Q5
Q8742 A964 K9 QT
QJ965 KQ64 K Q75
So that's three 5422 11-counts, each containing two doubleton honours, and one aceless, pipless 13-count containing a singleton king. How many of these hands are actually good enough to open?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#34
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Posted 2008-January-24, 16:53
mikeh, on Jan 24 2008, 03:00 PM, said:
jdonn, on Jan 24 2008, 02:18 PM, said:
I would have passed, that will teach me 
Closer to 4♥ than pass? So you think 4♥ is making more than half the time? That's pretty bold.
Closer to 4♥ than pass? So you think 4♥ is making more than half the time? That's pretty bold.
That's not what was meant (I think)
If partner accepts the invitation, then I'd expect partner to make game about half the time. If he passes the invitation, I'd expect to make 3♥ about half the time.
I guess I don't quite understand that. If 4♥ makes half the time that partner accepts, that means it makes less than half the time overall. So how does that mean, if partner was barred, 4♥ is a better bid than pass?
Anyway I can believe 3♥ is right, but the obviousness is really being exagerated. It's a close case, especially at matchpoints.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#35 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-January-24, 16:59
gnasher, on Jan 24 2008, 05:37 PM, said:
awm, on Jan 24 2008, 10:54 PM, said:
4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).
The four hands were:
KQ752 9754 Q5 A6
QJT64 Q954 A5 Q5
Q8742 A964 K9 QT
QJ965 KQ64 K Q75
So that's three 5422 11-counts, each containing two doubleton honours, and one aceless, pipless 13-count containing a singleton king. How many of these hands are actually good enough to open?
Agree with this, the first 3 hands are not even opening bids for most people. Hands 2 and 3 are silly (imo) but hand 1 is definitely possible to open.
Also I don't understand your suggestion that opener may bid 4H over 3H with Kxxxx AKQx Qx xx. Would that even really cross your mind? I'm not saying I don't believe you, I just could never see THINKING of bidding 4H with that hand. It has minimum shape with a queen extra and pretty crappy honor location. A queen extra with minimum shape when you have a 7 point range and a wide variety of possible shapes doesn't seem close to an accept to me.
FWIW I think your simulation argues very strongly for a 3H bid.
Oh and just to not be one sided if one were to throw out the horrible 11 counts they should also throw out the 6-6 hand and the 7-4 hand because I think rebidding 2H with those hands is bad.
Also I think these simulations IDEALLY (but its a lot of work so your way is fine too) should be done with all 4 hands so you can throw out hands where the opponents would have bid. That would probably decrease hands like 6-6 11 counts.
#36
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Posted 2008-January-24, 17:12
I really don't believe that Meckstroth would bid 4H.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
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#37
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Posted 2008-January-25, 06:01
FrancesHinden, on Jan 24 2008, 04:27 PM, said:
umm... I'm closer to bidding 4H than passing.
indeed