[Helmer]

♠♠♥

Scoring: MP

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Over RKC we ended in 6 ♥. No bid from opps.

How to play it, after spade lead?






Am I just "stupid" when I say - I think a good way could be either to draw one or two rounds of thrump and then play a small ♦ to the Jack?

This was winning way in this hand as ♦ split 4 -2 with K1082 after dummy.

♥ split 2 - 2.

South had ♠QJ109653 ♥87 ♦75 ♣ K4.

After 1♥ no bid ! - and maybe I bid wrong - but no agreements. I bid 4♥.

How would you play it?

[cherdano]

I like this line. The advantage is that you can first test the diamonds, and then take the club finesse if necessary. If you run ♦J losing, you get a club return. Now you either have to give up on layouts with ♦T falling and club king off-side, or on layouts with club king onside and ♦T guarded.

Arend

[pclayton]

I kind of like the line. The alternative of running the ♦J at T2 seems technically worse to me for 12 tricks, but I'll think about it more.

I'm not that concerned about an overtrick here. This is a great slam and I would need a lot of luck in both minors to make 13 here. I would say making 6 is at least an 80% board.

I would guess at other tables the opponents are more active with their 11 spades, which may or may not help other tables to get to 6.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Feb 23 2006, 12:27 PM, said:

Why is this line better for 12 tricks? It caters to ONE SPECIFIC diamond holding (KTxx on right) PLUS the club king being off, and loses to the holdings i mentioned which are much more likely.

Not really.

If the diamond finesse loses and a club comes back you have a nasty guess. Are diamonds 3-3? Or is the K♣ on. I would venture to guess a good player will put a club on the table in a nanosecond just about every single time.

But as I said, I haven't fully digested the hand.

[cherdano]

Justin, I think you are still overlooking something. Let's assume clubs are 3-2 for simplicity. Also let's assume hearts split 2-2. There are 3 lines:
1. Run ♦J, hook if it loses to the king and a club comes back
2. Run ♦J, win ♣A if it loses to the king and a club comes back
3. Start with a diamond to the jack.

No. 1 has a success rate of 74% (either king on). No. 2 is a little better, it wins when either ♦K is on, or ♦T is at most tripleton (I guess 76% or so).
No. 3 almost always wins when ♦K is with North (either you don't lose a diamond trick, or you have enough discards when diamonds are not 5-1). If ♦K is with South, you can next test whether diamond ten falls, this already gives you about 75%. And when this fails, you still have the hope for ♣K onside.

Unless I have overlooked s.th., No. 3 is the best, and it is not close. The point is it's the only line that allows you to test falling of ♦T before you commit on the club hook.

(Yes I have analyzed it like an IMP problem. At MP it depends on the field-blah-blah.)

Arend

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Feb 25 2006, 02:59 AM, said:

Thanks, I know you are overlooking something.

Heh, first to be clear, I make this detailed list not because I think you are dumb, but because I am dumb and need to do this to sort it out for me

Quote

Number 2 is A LOT better than number 1. You pick up any 4 card diamond suit that has the CK as well as any 3-3 diamonds, DK onside, or DT dropping doubleton.

Sorry, I still don't get it -- why do you pick up a 4-card diamond suit that has the ♣K? I don't see a squeeze working.

Quote

This one is a no-brainer.

Maybe...but not for me...

(Of course, the line 2. above has non-technical advantages; if North has ♦KTxx and ♣Kxx, he may not find the club shift after winning the ♦K.)


Arend

[benlessard]

At IMPs Low to the J is clearly the best line.


The ♣ switch is too probable.



In a tough field maybe you wont get a good score for 6h making. So maybe running the ♦J is better.


But in a weakish field low to the J is a reasonnable anti-field "semi-safety play".






Ben