[apollo1201]

A basic (or maybe not so) that partner did not get at the table.

It is MP (at IMP I would have gotten it right, here idk how to do). All green.

The bidding was straightforward, with opps silent throughout. You deal and open 1C, partner bids 1H and you bid 4H.

Here is the habd (sorry no diagram on my phone), play this 4H on the CJ lead:

Dummy
Axxx
AQxx
KQx
Kx

Déclarer
Jx
97xxx
Axx
Qxx

All relies on the trump suit missing K, J, 10 and 8.

You make it you lose 1, go down if you lose 2 and enjoy an over truck for no losers.

4-0 breaks both sides look too much to handle.

1-3 will alway lose 2 unless sg K drops under the A.

3-1 will always lose 1 if you play A first. Either K drops and you lose JTx, or nothing happens but W is done when you later on play towards Q.

2-2 will depend on where is K.

At IMP I would cash A and play towards Q to try to ensure, accepting to lose the over trick when they split Kx vs xx.

At MP where all the field will also be in 4H, it seems that playing for Kx inside is half of 22 breaks so 20%. While sg K offside is 25% of 3 west 1 east breaks, so 6-7%.

So we should finesse?

Partner did not think of all that she told me I was over complexifying things, she just took a finesse like anyone else does. Of course losing to the sg K and collecting 40% of MP while 420 was over 90%.

I do not blame her for that as staying with the field was not necessarily stupid (we were probably well above 60% at that time but the last 2 tables cost us a lot). And based on the above it seems it is the right thing to do.

This deal was played less than 100 times nationwide because it was one of the last (we had to go up to 39 as 13 tables x 3 deals, most have 9-10 tables max), and 43 pairs scored -50, only 11 at 420 and 3 at 170.

I am virtually certain that no one in the 43 did this math things.

But was my thinking correct?

Thanks for the help 😅😅😅

[Kaitlyn S]

I would finesse in matchpoints and play the Ace at IMPs. I think most people will reach 4H so play for the highest odds in MP. If you were playing in a field where you think most of the people wouldn't bid 4H then I might play for the drop.

In a weakish field where LHO plays the eight, it would not occur to most weak players that they don't need to play the 8 from JT8 so the only relevant holdings are JT8 and K8 and they are almost equally likely (I think K8 is slightly more likely.) However, here it only requires a couple of pairs not to be in 4H to make playing for the drop correct. If LHO plays the J or 10 I would never play for the drop, because there rates to be some pairs that would always play the 8 from JT8.

[WasWinM]

A touch more than 12% for singleton king offside. A hair better than 20% for the king onside doubleton.