[Huibertus]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-April-15, 04:07, said:

is 3NT playable with reasonable chance (>=45%)? .
♠Q765
♥Q987
♦43
♣983

It depends on the format/vulnerability.
At IMPS Vulnerable 35% is roughly what you need.
At IMPS NON-Vul 50% is roughly what you need.
At matchpoints (hardest to assess) you need (50% + half of the perenctage of the participants you are beating anyway) as they are in nonsensical contract. So if it is a cold 6, and you assess the entire field is in 4, you are beating them anyway, and you need 100% to bid 7.

So assuming this is matchpoints, 45% is not nearly enough for game, assessing half of the field has a disaster and you beat them in a part score, 75% for 3NT is more like what you need. If on the other hand you are in the world championship finals and you assess everybody bids and makes 6, 50% for 7 breaks even.

[smerriman]

It's also worth noting that if partner has that extremely rare weak hand where you can make game, while being passed out in 1♣.. you'll get a near-average score, not a terrible game swing against, because most other tables will do the same thing. Conversely, in the much more likely case where you open 2♣ and the auction does get out of control, then you will be getting a very bad score.

For reference, the voting is currently 24 for 1♣, 6 for 2NT, and 1 for 2♣ (and I'd be willing to bet Kyle was planning to follow up with a 2NT rebid).